NBA model output for December 3, 2025. Pick, sizing, reasoning, and final result.
Gridiron & Wine's NBA model fired Heat Spread -6.5 for Heat vs. Mavericks on December 3, 2025, sized at 1.0 units.
Spread/ATS edge — model projection beats the market line by enough to clear vig and absorb variance. The model only fires when its fair probability beats the market by enough margin to clear the tier threshold.
The NBA pick on Heat vs. Mavericks graded as a LOSS for -1.10u.
Every Gridiron & Wine pick involving the Heat or the Mavericks is logged on their respective team archive pages, with rolling W-L and ROI.
Every Gridiron & Wine NBA pick is logged and published — wins, losses, and pushes alike. No deletions. No quiet retirements. The full track record is verified here.
Learn how the model works on the NBA picks page, or see the glossary for any unfamiliar terms.