FAQ & Terms of Use

Everything you need to know about the models, the subscription, and how to use picks responsibly.

Important: Gridiron & Wine provides sports analysis for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not a licensed gambling operator. Picks do not guarantee profit. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and always follow your local laws regarding sports wagering.

How It Works

What exactly are you selling?

Access to quantitative sports models built on 3+ years of historical data across NHL, NBA, and MLB. Every day, the models scan upcoming games, identify statistically favorable matchups, and publish official picks with unit sizing and model reasoning. You get the same output the models produce — no editorializing, no gut picks.

How are the picks generated?

Each sport uses a purpose-built quantitative model trained on 3+ years of historical game and odds data. Here's how each one works at a high level:

NHL: A probabilistic model that estimates the true win probability for each team using rolling team performance, goalie quality, advanced shot metrics (expected goals, Corsi, Fenwick), special teams rates, and schedule context. It compares the model's probability against what the market is pricing in — when a meaningful gap exists in the right game types, a signal is generated.
NBA: A six-model ensemble that evaluates both teams at the player level using efficiency metrics, value-over-replacement, win shares, and four-factor basketball theory. Models vote on a direction; the more models that agree, the higher the conviction tier. Spread zone also factors into which games qualify.
MLB: A run-expectation model that projects scoring for both sides using starter quality (FIP, strikeout rate), bullpen workload, lineup strength, and park factors. A second model evaluates specific matchup types where the market has historically mispriced outcomes. Only games where both models agree qualify as official picks.

All models use walk-forward temporal cross-validation — trained only on data prior to each test window, never on future data. Signals must survive multiple out-of-sample periods before going live. The specific thresholds and filtering criteria are proprietary.

What does "official pick" vs "lean" mean?

Official picks are the model's highest-conviction outputs — they meet all primary edge criteria (minimum sample, ROI threshold, multi-season consistency). These come with explicit unit sizing.

Leans are directional signals that didn't clear the official threshold — useful context, but not bets we'd size aggressively. Free tier subscribers see leans only.

What does "1u", "1.5u", "2u" mean?

Units are a percentage of your bankroll. We recommend treating 1 unit = 1-2% of your sports betting bankroll. For example, with a $1,000 bankroll: 1u = $10-20. This keeps any single loss small relative to your total and lets you weather normal variance. Never bet more than you can afford to lose in a session.

When are picks posted?

Picks are posted each morning after lineups and odds are confirmed — typically by 10am ET. Subscribe to email notifications to get picks delivered to your inbox as soon as they post.

What sportsbooks should I use?

We don't have a paid relationship with any book. For best results: shop lines across at least 2-3 books before placing. DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM tend to have competitive MLB and NHL moneylines. For NBA spreads, Pinnacle (where legal) or any major book works. A 1-2 point line difference can meaningfully affect your ROI over a season.

Track Record & Methodology

How do you calculate ROI?

ROI = net profit (in units) ÷ total units risked × 100. For moneyline bets, a win at +130 returns 1.3u on 1u risked. For ATS bets at standard -110, a win returns 1u on 1.1u risked. We report both flat-unit ROI and risk-adjusted ROI where relevant.

Are the backtests real or cherry-picked?

All historical results use walk-forward temporal cross-validation — models are trained only on data prior to each test period. No look-ahead bias. No curve-fitting to find retrospectively profitable systems. Every rejected feature and failed experiment is documented in our internal decision log. The edges we report survived multiple out-of-sample folds before being published.

Can past ROI predict future results?

No. Sports markets are competitive and edges can erode. We actively monitor closing line value (CLV) and edge decay metrics. If a signal degrades below our kill criteria, we retire it — even if historical ROI was strong. The honest answer is that no sports model can guarantee continued profitability, and anyone who tells you otherwise is lying.

Subscription & Billing

How do I cancel?

Email info@gridironandwine.com and we'll cancel your subscription immediately. You retain access until the end of your current billing period. No cancellation fees, no questions asked.

Is there a refund policy?

We offer a 7-day money-back guarantee for new subscribers. If you're unsatisfied within 7 days of your first payment, contact us for a full refund. After 7 days, subscriptions are non-refundable but you can cancel anytime.

What's included in each tier?

Free: Lean directions (team + side) for all sports — no odds, no sizing, no official picks
$15/month — Slate & Charts: Full daily slate for every sport with model-driven leans, directional charts, and season-level performance data. No official picks, but enough to follow the model's thinking across every game.
$45/month — Full Plays: Everything in Slate & Charts plus official picks each day with unit sizing, odds, and model reasoning. This is the full product — what the model thinks, why it thinks it, and how much conviction it has.
$65/month — AI Pro: Everything in Full Plays plus an AI-powered assistant you can query directly. Ask about your ROI by sport or edge, best and worst teams bet on, how specific matchup types have performed, recent model trends, and more. Built for subscribers who want to dig deeper than the picks themselves.

Pricing is subject to change with 30 days notice to existing subscribers.

Can I share my account?

Accounts are for individual use only. Sharing login credentials or redistributing picks (screenshotting, copy-pasting to other forums, social media) violates our terms and can result in account termination without refund.

Terms of Use

Last updated: April 1, 2026

1. Informational Purpose Only

All content published by Gridiron & Wine, including picks, analysis, projections, and model outputs, is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial advice, legal advice, or a guarantee of future results. Sports betting involves substantial risk. You may lose money.

2. No Warranty

Gridiron & Wine makes no warranty, express or implied, that the information provided will result in profit. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All models are subject to degradation over time as market conditions change.

3. User Responsibility

By subscribing, you acknowledge that: (a) you are of legal age to participate in sports wagering in your jurisdiction; (b) sports wagering is legal in your jurisdiction; (c) you are solely responsible for your own betting decisions; (d) you will not hold Gridiron & Wine liable for any losses incurred. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling is causing problems, visit ncpgambling.org or call 1-800-522-4700.

4. Intellectual Property

All model methodology, pick outputs, and site content are the proprietary work of Gridiron & Wine. Redistribution, republication, or resale of picks — in whole or in part — is prohibited without written permission. This includes posting picks to Discord servers, Telegram groups, social media, or any other third-party platform.

5. Account Termination

We reserve the right to terminate accounts that share credentials, redistribute content, or violate these terms. Terminated accounts forfeit any remaining subscription period without refund.

6. Modifications

We may update these terms at any time. Continued use of the service after changes are posted constitutes acceptance of the updated terms. Material changes will be communicated via email to active subscribers.

7. Contact

Questions? Email info@gridironandwine.com.