NHL model output for December 4, 2025. Pick, sizing, reasoning, and final result.
Gridiron & Wine's NHL model fired Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline (+154) for Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on December 4, 2025, sized at 2.0 units.
Underdog moneyline edge — model fair probability exceeds the closing-line implied probability after vig. The model only fires when its fair probability beats the market by enough margin to clear the tier threshold.
The NHL pick on Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning graded as a WIN for +3.08u.
Every Gridiron & Wine pick involving the Pittsburgh Penguins or the Tampa Bay Lightning is logged on their respective team archive pages, with rolling W-L and ROI.
Every Gridiron & Wine NHL pick is logged and published — wins, losses, and pushes alike. No deletions. No quiet retirements. The full track record is verified here.
Learn how the model works on the NHL picks page, or see the glossary for any unfamiliar terms.