🏒
Today's Plays— 2026-03-23
Senators
James Reimer CONFIRMED
5-3-1 | 2.47 GAA | .883 SV%
@
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin CONFIRMED
22-14-6 | 2.56 GAA | .911 SV%
SIGNAL
Model: 44.4%Market: 37.2%Edge: +7.2pp
OTT5v5 Process (2025-26)NYR
James ReimerOTT
Record5-3-1
GAA2.47
SV%.883
GSAx (5v5)-1.4
Igor ShesterkinNYR
Record22-14-6
GAA2.56
SV%.911
GSAx (5v5)+19.6
Model projects Rangers at 44.4% win probability vs market's 37.2% — a +7.2pp edge at +158
Senators leads 5v5 xG% (56.0% vs 48.0%) but Rangers has value at +158 per model projection
Goalie edge: Igor Shesterkin (+19.6 GSAx) vs James Reimer (-1.4 GSAx)
🔮
Leans — Not Official Plays
These are directional leans based on model output. Not tracked, not sized. For discussion only.
No additional leans today
2026-03-22
LKings +147 @ MammothL (3-4)-1.50u
2026-03-21
LJets +130 @ PenguinsL (4-5)-1.50u
2026-03-21
WWild +114 vs StarsW (2-1)+1.71u
2026-03-21
LKraken +1.5 (-135) @ Blue JacketsL (2-5)-1.50u
2026-03-19
WPanthers +135 @ OilersW (4-0)+2.03u
2026-03-19
WFlyers +149 @ KingsW (4-3)+1.49u
2026-03-19
WRed Wings -105 vs CanadiensW (3-1)-1.00u
178
Total Plays
178u risked
MLB plays coming soon — 2026 data coming soon.
⚠
Lineup Alert — Uncertain O/U Projections
Some Over/Under plays have key rotation players listed as Questionable or GTD.
Re-run closer to game time for updated projections. ATS plays are unaffected.
Lakers (40-25)@Pistons (45-18)
BASE
Pistons Season: 45-18 (23-8 Home | 22-10 Away | +7.3 PPG margin)
Pistons +1.5
1u1/6 modelsLine: +1.51H: +0.5
Pistons (45-18) outscores opponents by +7.3 PPG vs Lakers' +1.0 margin
Pistons ranks 1st in defensive eFG% (51.6%) vs Lakers' 27th (55.7%)
Pistons grabs 13.2 offensive rebounds/game (3rd in NBA), creating second-chance opportunities
Pistons averages 10.5 steals/game (1st) — a problem for Lakers' turnover-prone offense
LIVE
Game in progress
Thunder (51-14)@76ers (35-30)
BASE
76ers Season: 35-30 (18-16 Home | 17-14 Away | -0.3 PPG margin)
76ers +16.0
1u1/6 modelsLine: +16.01H: +9.5
The 16.0-point spread overvalues 76ers — lineup projections show Thunder keeping this closer than the market expects
76ers averages 5.6 blocks/game (6th in NBA) — rim protection limits Thunder's interior scoring
76ers posts a 1.87 assist-to-turnover ratio — disciplined ball movement creates efficient possessions vs Thunder
L
Final: 123-103
-1.1u
Rockets (40-25)@Bulls (27-38)
BASE
Rockets Season: 40-25 (22-8 Home | 18-17 Away | +4.3 PPG margin)
Rockets -8.5
1u1/6 modelsLine: +8.51H: +4.5
Rockets (40-25) carries a +4.3 point differential vs Bulls' -4.2 — a 8.5-point gap in average margin
Rockets ranks 5th in defensive eFG% (53.0%) vs Bulls' 20th (54.7%)
Rockets grabs 15.2 offensive rebounds/game (1st in NBA), creating second-chance opportunities
Season margin of 4.3 PPG supports the 8.5-point spread — models see Rockets covering comfortably
LIVE
Game in progress
Nets (17-48)@Blazers (31-35)
BASE
Blazers Season: 31-35 (17-16 Home | 14-19 Away | -2.6 PPG margin)
Blazers -15.5
1u1/6 modelsLine: -15.51H: -8.5
Blazers (31-35) holds a 6.2-point edge in scoring margin over Nets (17-48)
Blazers grabs 14.1 offensive rebounds/game (2nd in NBA), creating second-chance opportunities
Season margin of 2.6 PPG supports the 15.5-point spread — models see Blazers covering comfortably
Bucks (27-37)@Clippers (33-32)
BASE
Bucks Season: 27-37 (15-18 Home | 12-19 Away | -4.9 PPG margin)
Bucks +13.5
1u1/6 modelsLine: -13.51H: -7.5
Bucks ranks 3rd in effective FG% (56.4%)
The 13.5-point spread overvalues Bucks — lineup projections show Clippers keeping this closer than the market expects
Bucks posts a 1.86 assist-to-turnover ratio — disciplined ball movement creates efficient possessions vs Clippers
Thunder (51-14)@76ers (35-30)
STRONG
▲ OVER 225.5
2u2/5 models1H: 111.5
Combined scoring average (115.9 + 118.9 = 234.9) exceeds the 225.5 line
Both teams rank in the top half of scoring: 76ers 12th and Thunder 3rd
76ers allows 116.3 PPG (18th worst defense) — opponent should exploit this
Thunder shoots at 5th in eFG% — efficient offense projects scoring above the line
W
Final: 123-103
+2.0u
Rockets (40-25)@Bulls (27-38)
STRONG
▲ OVER 232.5
2u2/5 models1H: 112.5
Bulls allows 119.9 PPG (25th worst defense) — opponent should exploit this
Bulls allows 119.9 PPG and Rockets allows 110.0 — combined defensive leakage pushes the total above 232.5
Bulls (115.6 PPG) and Rockets (114.2 PPG) both carry offensive firepower to exceed 232.5
LIVE
Game in progress
Raptors (36-29)@Jazz (20-46)
STRONG
▲ OVER 230.5
2u2/5 models1H: 112.5
Combined scoring average (117.4 + 113.4 = 230.8) exceeds the 230.5 line
Jazz allows 125.0 PPG (30th worst defense) — opponent should exploit this
Jazz allows 125.0 PPG and Raptors allows 111.9 — combined defensive leakage pushes the total above 230.5
LIVE
Game in progress
Nets (17-48)@Blazers (31-35)
STRONG
▼ UNDER 217.5
2u2/5 models1H: 112.5
Blazers turns it over 16.5 times/game — wasted possessions limit scoring opportunities
Blazers (115.1 PPG) and Nets (107.0 PPG) both trend below the 217.5 total in scoring output
Blazers holds opponents to 117.8 PPG and Nets to 115.9 — defensive matchup suppresses the total
Bucks (27-37)@Clippers (33-32)
STRONG
▼ UNDER 221.5
2u2/5 models1H: 114.5
Clippers holds opponents to 112.6 PPG (10th in NBA) — elite defensive anchor
Bucks turns it over 13.9 times/game — wasted possessions limit scoring opportunities
Clippers (113.4 PPG) and Bucks (111.1 PPG) both trend below the 221.5 total in scoring output
⚠
Lineup Uncertain — Re-run closer to tip-off
John Collins (QUESTIONABLE), Kawhi Leonard (QUESTIONABLE)
Lakers (40-25)@Pistons (45-18)
BASE
▲ OVER 226.5
1u1/5 models1H: 116.5
Combined scoring average (116.9 + 115.9 = 232.9) exceeds the 226.5 line
Both teams rank in the top half of scoring: Pistons 10th and Lakers 11th
Lakers shoots at 2nd in eFG% — efficient offense projects scoring above the line
⚠
Lineup Uncertain — Re-run closer to tip-off
Nick Smith Jr. (QUESTIONABLE)
LIVE
Game in progress
Spurs (47-17)@Heat (37-29)
BASE
▲ OVER 243.5
1u1/5 models1H: 125.5
Both teams rank in the top half of scoring: Heat 1st and Spurs 4th
Heat allows 116.7 PPG (20th worst defense) — opponent should exploit this
Spurs shoots at 6th in eFG% — efficient offense projects scoring above the line
LIVE
Game in progress
Grizzlies (22-40)@Hawks (34-31)
BASE
▲ OVER 240.5
1u1/5 models1H: 123.5
Grizzlies allows 118.4 PPG (24th worst defense) — opponent should exploit this
Hawks shoots at 10th in eFG% — efficient offense projects scoring above the line
Hawks allows 117.2 PPG and Grizzlies allows 118.4 — combined defensive leakage pushes the total above 240.5
LIVE
Game in progress
31
Total Plays
23 pending
NFL plays coming soon — 2026 data coming soon.
College basketball plays coming soon — 2026 data coming soon.
For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always gamble responsibly.
Gridiron & Wine · Official Plays · 2025-26 Season