Hedge Calculator

When a hedge makes sense

A hedge is a second bet on the opposite outcome, placed after the first. It trades some of your upside for certainty. It never adds expected value on its own: you are paying the book's margin a second time. People hedge to manage risk, not to make the position better on average, so the right amount depends on how much variance you want to carry.

The three strategies

With original stake S at decimal odds D_o, and a hedge of H at decimal odds D_h:

original wins:  S × (Do − 1) − H
hedge wins:     H × (Dh − 1) − S

same profit either way:  H = S × Do / Dh
get my stake back:       H = S / (Dh − 1)

Same profit either way locks in an identical result whichever side wins. If the line has moved your way (you hold +250 and the other side is now -180) that result is a guaranteed profit; if it moved against you it locks in a smaller loss, and the calculator says so. Get my stake back hedges just enough that a loss on the original bet is break-even, keeping most of the upside. Custom shows both outcomes for any amount.

If you enter your own win chance for the original side, the calculator also shows the expected profit of the whole position. Comparing that with the expected profit of not hedging (hedge = $0) shows what the certainty costs you.

Related: arbitrage calculator, no-vig odds, parlay calculator.