NFL Over Expected
What each team does, against what teams usually do in the same situations.
League context
How the league itself has moved since 2015, so this season’s number has a frame. The shaded band is the range of every completed season; the gold dot is this season.
Same-situation comparisons
A raw comparison can mislead when one team spent more of its snaps in easy or hard spots. This one holds the situations equal, and always says which ones it held equal and which it did not.
Reading the chart
Each bar is a team’s rate minus what teams usually do in the same situations. Right of the centre line is more often than usual; left is less often. A team that throws a lot because it is always behind is not “pass-happy”; a team that throws more than usual on early downs with the score close is. The value beside each bar is the gap in percentage points, with the team’s own rate and the usual rate under it.
The buttons change the claim without leaving the page: Games (the season or a team’s last 8, 5 or 3 games), Plays (passing or rushing plays, where a stat has both), Score (trailing by 4 or more, within 3, leading by 4 or more) and Compared with: the same down, distance, field position, score and time, or the same down and distance only. Every row shows how many plays it is built on; greyed rows have too few to lean on yet.
Free and members. The top five teams in each stat are free for everyone, for every season since 2021. Every team, offense and defense, every window, play type, score state and the comparison tool are part of Analytics, and every higher plan includes them.
These are descriptions of what teams have done, not predictions. A team’s tendency can change with a new play-caller, a new quarterback or a change in health.
What the numbers mean
- Dropback rate over expected
- How often the offense drops back to pass (passes, sacks and scrambles), against how often teams usually do in the same situations.
- Motion rate over expected
- How often a player is in motion before the snap, against the usual rate in the same situations. Charted from 2022.
- Play-action rate over expected
- Share of dropbacks with a play-action fake, against the usual share in the same situations. Charted from 2022.
- No-huddle rate over expected
- How often the offense snaps without a huddle, against the usual rate in the same situations.
- 4th-down go rate over expected
- How often the offense goes for it on 4th down instead of punting or kicking, against how often teams usually go for it from the same distance, spot, score and time.
- Success rate over expected
- Share of plays that add expected points, against the usual success rate in the same situations. Defense: success allowed (lower is better).
- Blitz rate over expected
- How often the defense blitzes on a dropback, against how often defenses usually blitz in the same situations. Charted from 2022.
- Same-situation comparison
- One team against another team or the rest of the league on a stat, first raw and then with the other side held to the first team’s mix of situations. “The situations account for” is the part of the raw gap that came from where each team played, not how well.
Keep exploring
Situations · NFL team stats · Trends · Matchups · Rank Race