Daily MLB picks that account for starting pitching, bullpens, ballparks, and lineup matchups like platoon splits. Verified track record. Full transparency.
Every MLB pick on this site comes from one process: our model prices every game on the slate, compares that price with current odds across major sportsbooks, and only releases a play when it finds a real edge.
The model scans the day's slate as soon as confirmed starting pitchers are announced. For each game it produces a win probability and projected run total, then compares them with the implied probability priced at the moneyline, run line, and total. When our number and the market's disagree by enough to matter, the game becomes an official play with explicit unit sizing.
Baseball is the highest-volume sport on the slate, which means edges are smaller individually but compound across hundreds of plays. Discipline matters more here than in any other league.
MLB outcomes are dictated by who's on the mound, what the opposing lineup looks like against that pitcher, and where the game is being played. Every projection accounts for:
Who is on the mound matters more than anything else in a single baseball game. We grade every starter on how well he is actually pitching, not on an ERA that can swing wildly over a handful of starts.
Modern MLB games are decided by relief usage as much as by starters. A tired closer-setup combination playing the third game in three days is a different pen than the one ranked on a season-long leaderboard, and our numbers reflect who is actually available. More on first-five versus full-game betting →
Run scoring varies by 15 to 25 percent across MLB parks for handedness-specific batters. Coors Field plays differently than Petco; Yankee Stadium's right-field porch matters; wind direction at Wrigley shifts totals. Every projection accounts for the ballpark and the day's weather.
Right-handed-heavy lineups against soft-tossing lefties price differently than the same teams' season averages suggest. Our numbers update once lineups are confirmed.
Each MLB play arrives with a fixed structure so you know exactly what you're betting and why:
Plays are released after starting pitchers are officially confirmed by both teams and the early-afternoon odds settle — typically by 1pm ET on weekdays for evening games and earlier on weekend day games. Who is starting is the biggest single factor in any MLB game, so we wait for it.
Coverage runs the full regular season. MLB has the largest daily slate of any major US sport (15 games on a typical night) which means slate volume is highest here. The model is calibrated to fire only on real edges, so a typical day might produce two to five plays. On low-edge days it stays out entirely.