CBB moneyline picks from a quantitative model built on team efficiency, home court, conference matchup dynamics, and market price.
CBB has more than 350 Division I teams and ~5,000 regular-season games. That volume is a feature, not a bug — but only if you can systematically separate the games where the market is pricing accurately from the games where it is not. Our CBB model is built to find the games where the moneyline doesn't reflect how close the two teams really are.
Plays are sized 1u, 2u, or 3u by confidence. The model fires roughly 107 plays per season — selective by design — and only when our win probability and the moneyline's implied probability disagree by enough to beat the vig and absorb variance.
CBB edges are smaller than the public assumes but more durable than the casual model gives credit for. Every projection accounts for:
Raw points-per-game lies. A team that scores 80 against weak defenses isn't the same as a team that scores 75 against top-50 defenses, and our ratings know the difference.
Two efficient teams playing at slow tempo produce a different fair total — and a different variance profile — than two average teams playing fast.
Home-court advantage in CBB is real but wildly non-uniform — a Pac-12 mid-tier on a weeknight is a different home environment from a Big East rivalry at a 12,000-seat arena.
Conference rematches, late-season fatigue, and tournament-stakes context all shift fair lines in ways the market is slow to adjust to.
A play only goes out when our win probability and the moneyline's implied probability disagree by enough to beat the vig. The gap — not the upset narrative — is the entire game.
Plays are released as opening lines settle the morning of the game. Conference play is the most plentiful window — January through early March is where most plays fire. Official plays cover the regular season.
The model is calibrated to fire only on real edges, not to fill a daily quota. Some nights produce three to four CBB plays, some produce zero. Volume averages roughly 107 plays per full season — selective by design.