Every Sim Graded

Every game the G&W Model called, graded every week. Wins and misses, nobody hidden.

Season to date, updated Oct 28, 2026:

NFL: 58 games graded. The team we favoured won 59.6%; our average stated chance was 62.4%. Margin off by 8.8 points on average.
College Football: 229 games graded. The team we favoured won 64.6%; our average stated chance was 67.2%. Margin off by 12.1 points on average.
NHL: 190 games graded. The team we favoured won 61.6%; our average stated chance was 58.3%. Margin off by 2.1 goals on average.
NBA: 56 games graded. The team we favoured won 62.5%; our average stated chance was 65.2%. Margin off by 11.8 points on average.
CFL: 16 games graded. The team we favoured won 56.2%; our average stated chance was 61.3%. Margin off by 12.0 points on average.
WNBA: 13 games graded. The team we favoured won 69.2%; our average stated chance was 57.0%. Margin off by 7.1 points on average.

What the numbers mean

Winners called: share of games where the team we made the favourite won.

We said: our average chance on the team we favoured. When it matches winners called, our percentages mean what they say.

Total off by / Margin off by: average gap between our projected score and the final, in points (goals for NHL).

Scores in range: share of team scores that landed inside the range we gave.

Best calls / Worst misses: the games where we were most confident, and right (best) or wrong (worst).