Research › NFL wins vs point differential
NFL · 2026 NFL · through Week 7
NFL teams winning more than their point differential, through Week 7
Short answer
The Cleveland Browns are 5-2 even though they have scored 133 points and allowed 146 (−13). A scoring margin like that usually produces about 3.1 wins in 7 games, so they are +1.9 wins ahead of their point differential, the most in the NFL through Week 7.
Next: the Buffalo Bills (5-1, +1.5) and Denver Broncos (5-2, +1.4). At the other end, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-5 with a +11 point differential, −1.8 wins below it.
Through games of Oct 26, 2026 (Week 7) · Updated
All 32 teams: wins against point differential
Sorted by wins above or below what each team’s points scored and allowed usually produce. Through Week 7 games (Oct 26, 2026).
| # | Team | Record | Points (for–against) | Point diff | Expected wins | Wins vs expected | Close games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cleveland BrownsCLE | 5-2 | 133–146 | −13 | 3.1 | +1.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 |  Buffalo BillsBUF | 5-1 | 197–171 | +26 | 3.5 | +1.5 | 4-1 |
| 3 |  Denver BroncosDEN | 5-2 | 144–141 | +3 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 4-0 |
| 4 |  Minnesota VikingsMIN | 6-0 | 125–74 | +51 | 4.7 | +1.3 | 4-0 |
| 5 |  San Francisco 49ersSF | 6-1 | 197–139 | +58 | 4.9 | +1.1 | 3-0 |
| 6 |  Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 5-2 | 153–138 | +15 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 |  New York GiantsNYG | 4-2-1 | 163–161 | +2 | 3.6 | +0.9 | 3-1-1 |
| 8 |  Kansas City ChiefsKC | 5-1 | 143–103 | +40 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 2-0 |
| 9 |  Detroit LionsDET | 4-2 | 184–165 | +19 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 3-1 |
| 10 |  Chicago BearsCHI | 5-2 | 180–143 | +37 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 2-1 |
| 11 |  Green Bay PackersGB | 4-3 | 144–145 | −1 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 2-1 |
| 12 |  Baltimore RavensBAL | 4-3 | 169–167 | +2 | 3.5 | +0.4 | 3-2 |
| 13 |  Carolina PanthersCAR | 3-3 | 159–166 | −7 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 1-1 |
| 14 |  New England PatriotsNE | 4-3 | 160–143 | +17 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2-2 |
| 15 |  Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 4-2 | 163–122 | +41 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2-2 |
| 16 |  Arizona CardinalsARI | 2-5 | 142–208 | −66 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1-1 |
| 17 |  Las Vegas RaidersLV | 3-4 | 183–197 | −14 | 3.2 | −0.2 | 1-2 |
| 18 |  Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 2-5 | 127–175 | −48 | 2.2 | −0.2 | 2-2 |
| 19 |  Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 4-2 | 154–104 | +50 | 4.3 | −0.3 | 2-2 |
| 20 |  Atlanta FalconsATL | 3-4 | 171–173 | −2 | 3.5 | −0.4 | 0-3 |
| 21 |  Miami DolphinsMIA | 1-5 | 98–157 | −59 | 1.5 | −0.5 | 1-2 |
| 22 |  Washington CommandersWSH | 1-4-1 | 132–172 | −40 | 2.1 | −0.6 | 1-2-1 |
| 23 |  Seattle SeahawksSEA | 4-3 | 168–125 | +43 | 4.7 | −0.7 | 2-3 |
| 24 |  Dallas CowboysDAL | 3-4 | 189–180 | +9 | 3.7 | −0.7 | 1-3 |
| 25 |  New Orleans SaintsNO | 2-5 | 162–194 | −32 | 2.8 | −0.8 | 2-3 |
| 26 |  Los Angeles RamsLAR | 3-4 | 170–159 | +11 | 3.8 | −0.8 | 1-3 |
| 27 |  Indianapolis ColtsIND | 2-5 | 154–180 | −26 | 2.9 | −0.9 | 1-3 |
| 28 |  Tennessee TitansTEN | 1-6 | 108–156 | −48 | 2.1 | −1.1 | 1-4 |
| 29 |  New York JetsNYJ | 2-5 | 137–150 | −13 | 3.1 | −1.1 | 1-4 |
| 30 |  Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 0-6 | 90–151 | −61 | 1.4 | −1.4 | 0-3 |
| 31 |  Houston TexansHOU | 2-5 | 165–170 | −5 | 3.4 | −1.4 | 1-4 |
| 32 |  Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB | 2-5 | 162–151 | +11 | 3.8 | −1.8 | 1-5 |
Expected wins = the wins a team’s points for and against usually produce over the games it has played. Wins vs expected = actual wins minus expected wins (a tie counts as half a win). Close games = record in close games this season. Close results swing on luck and tend to even out over a season.
Questions
Which NFL team is winning more than its point differential?
The Cleveland Browns. They are 5-2 after scoring 133 points and allowing 146, a margin that usually produces about 3.1 wins, so they are +1.9 wins ahead of their point differential through Week 7 (Oct 26, 2026).
Which NFL team is winning less than its point differential?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are 2-5 with 162 points scored and 151 allowed (+11), −1.8 wins below what that margin usually produces.
How many NFL teams are at least one win ahead of their point differential?
6 of 32 teams are at least one full win ahead of their point differential through Week 7.
What does winning more than your point differential mean?
A team’s points scored and allowed usually predict its record well. A team with a better record than its scoring margin has usually won its close games, and close results tend to even out over a season.