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G&W Model scorecard
Sim Grades
Every game the G&W Model called, graded every week. 100% transparency on the G&W Model's accuracy.
Graded here: the NFL, college football, NBA, NHL and college basketball. MLB and WNBA join when their seasons start. CFL and soccer are pending validation.
How well calibrated are the chances? See all 943 games by chance band
Season to date, updated Nov 9, 2026:
- NFL: 86 games graded. The team we favoured won 65.9%; our average stated chance was 63.4%. Margin off by 9.1 points on average.
- College Football: 345 games graded. The team we favoured won 66.1%; our average stated chance was 67.6%. Margin off by 12.5 points on average.
- NHL: 274 games graded. The team we favoured won 63.1%; our average stated chance was 58.6%. Margin off by 2.1 goals on average.
- NBA: 146 games graded. The team we favoured won 67.1%; our average stated chance was 66.0%. Margin off by 11.7 points on average.
- CFL: 16 games graded. The team we favoured won 56.2%; our average stated chance was 61.3%. Margin off by 12.0 points on average.
- WNBA: 14 games graded. The team we favoured won 71.4%; our average stated chance was 56.6%. Margin off by 7.4 points on average.
- College Basketball: 62 games graded. The team we favoured won 83.9%; our average stated chance was 80.0%. Margin off by 13.6 points on average.
How well calibrated are the chances? All sports, season to date
When the G&W Model said 60–65%, the favoured team won 62% of 160 games.
Across all 943 graded games, 6 of 6 chance bands landed within normal game-to-game luck of what we said. The biggest gap: at 80%+, favourites won 92.0% against an average stated 86.0% (113 games).
| We said | Games | Avg said | Fav won | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 206 | 52.5% | 55.1% | +2.6 |
| 55–60% | 173 | 57.5% | 56.1% | −1.4 |
| 60–65% | 160 | 62.5% | 61.9% | −0.6 |
| 65–70% | 134 | 67.2% | 65.7% | −1.6 |
| 70–80% | 157 | 74.6% | 79.6% | +5.0 |
| 80%+ | 113 | 86.0% | 92.0% | +6.1 |
We said: the chance we gave the team we favoured, before the game. Fav won: how often that team actually won.
Gap: fav won minus avg said, in percentage points. Plus means favourites won more often than we said. Green = within normal luck for that many games; amber = a bigger gap than luck alone usually explains. Faded rows have fewer than 10 games: too few to read much into.
By sport
NFL86 games
| We said | Games | Avg said | Fav won | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 17 | 52.5% | 61.8% | +9.3 |
| 55–60% | 19 | 57.2% | 42.1% | −15.1 |
| 60–65% | 17 | 62.9% | 64.7% | +1.8 |
| 65–70% | 12 | 67.7% | 91.7% | +24.0 |
| 70–80% | 17 | 74.4% | 76.5% | +2.1 |
| 80%+ | 4 | 81.4% | 75.0% | −6.4 |
College Football345 games
| We said | Games | Avg said | Fav won | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 53 | 52.6% | 47.2% | −5.4 |
| 55–60% | 47 | 57.7% | 59.6% | +1.9 |
| 60–65% | 56 | 62.4% | 53.6% | −8.8 |
| 65–70% | 56 | 67.3% | 60.7% | −6.6 |
| 70–80% | 79 | 74.7% | 81.0% | +6.3 |
| 80%+ | 54 | 85.9% | 87.0% | +1.1 |
NHL274 games
| We said | Games | Avg said | Fav won | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 101 | 52.3% | 56.4% | +4.1 |
| 55–60% | 67 | 57.3% | 56.7% | −0.6 |
| 60–65% | 60 | 62.4% | 66.7% | +4.3 |
| 65–70% | 30 | 67.1% | 80.0% | +12.9 |
| 70–80% | 14 | 73.0% | 85.7% | +12.7 |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.0% | 100.0% | +19.0 |
NBA146 games
| We said | Games | Avg said | Fav won | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 25 | 52.7% | 60.0% | +7.3 |
| 55–60% | 27 | 57.9% | 59.3% | +1.4 |
| 60–65% | 20 | 62.6% | 65.0% | +2.4 |
| 65–70% | 27 | 67.1% | 55.6% | −11.5 |
| 70–80% | 30 | 74.8% | 73.3% | −1.5 |
| 80%+ | 17 | 85.4% | 100.0% | +14.6 |
CFL16 games
| We said | Games | Avg said | Fav won | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 4 | 53.0% | 75.0% | +22.0 |
| 55–60% | 4 | 56.6% | 25.0% | −31.6 |
| 60–65% | 2 | 62.4% | 50.0% | −12.4 |
| 65–70% | 4 | 66.6% | 50.0% | −16.6 |
| 70–80% | 1 | 70.0% | 100.0% | +30.0 |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.7% | 100.0% | +19.3 |
WNBA14 games
| We said | Games | Avg said | Fav won | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 5 | 52.1% | 60.0% | +7.9 |
| 55–60% | 8 | 58.6% | 75.0% | +16.4 |
| 60–65% | 1 | 62.8% | 100.0% | +37.2 |
College Basketball62 games
| We said | Games | Avg said | Fav won | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 1 | 53.9% | 0.0% | −53.9 |
| 55–60% | 1 | 55.6% | 0.0% | −55.6 |
| 60–65% | 4 | 63.2% | 75.0% | +11.8 |
| 65–70% | 5 | 67.5% | 40.0% | −27.5 |
| 70–80% | 16 | 75.5% | 81.2% | +5.8 |
| 80%+ | 35 | 87.3% | 97.2% | +9.9 |
Every graded game, as of Nov 9, 2026. Updated every Monday.
What the numbers mean
Winners called: share of games where the team we made the favourite won.
We said: our average chance on the team we favoured. When it matches winners called, our percentages mean what they say.
Total off by / Margin off by: average gap between our projected score and the final, in points (goals for NHL).
Scores in range: share of team scores that landed inside the range we gave.
Best calls / Worst misses: the games where we were most confident, and right (best) or wrong (worst).