NFL Luck Rankings
Updated · Week 8 of 2026
Which NFL teams have won more, or fewer, games than their play deserves.
NFL Luck Rankings
| # | Team | Record | Luck | Expected win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cleveland Browns | 5-2 | +26.9% | 44.5% |
| 2 |  Buffalo Bills | 5-1 | +25.0% | 58.3% |
| 3 |  Minnesota Vikings | 6-0 | +22.4% | 77.6% |
| 4 |  Denver Broncos | 5-2 | +20.2% | 51.2% |
| 5 |  San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | +16.2% | 69.5% |
| 6 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | 5-2 | +15.3% | 56.1% |
| 7 |  Kansas City Chiefs | 5-1 | +14.8% | 68.5% |
| 8 |  New York Giants | 4-2-1 | +13.6% | 50.7% |
| 9 |  Detroit Lions | 4-2 | +10.3% | 56.4% |
| 10 |  Chicago Bears | 5-2 | +8.1% | 63.3% |
| 11 |  Green Bay Packers | 4-3 | +7.5% | 49.6% |
| 12 |  Baltimore Ravens | 4-3 | +6.4% | 50.7% |
| 13 |  Carolina Panthers | 3-3 | +2.6% | 47.4% |
| 14 |  New England Patriots | 4-3 | +0.5% | 56.6% |
| 15 |  Cincinnati Bengals | 4-2 | +0.2% | 66.5% |
| 16 |  Arizona Cardinals | 2-5 | −0.2% | 28.8% |
| 17 |  Las Vegas Raiders | 3-4 | −2.7% | 45.6% |
| 18 |  Philadelphia Eagles | 2-5 | −3.3% | 31.9% |
| 19 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-2 | −5.0% | 71.7% |
| 20 |  Atlanta Falcons | 3-4 | −6.4% | 49.3% |
| 21 |  Miami Dolphins | 1-5 | −7.9% | 24.6% |
| 22 |  Seattle Seahawks | 4-3 | −9.7% | 66.8% |
| 23 |  Washington Commanders | 1-4-1 | −9.8% | 34.8% |
| 24 |  Dallas Cowboys | 3-4 | −10.0% | 52.9% |
| 25 |  New Orleans Saints | 2-5 | −10.9% | 39.5% |
| 26 |  Los Angeles Rams | 3-4 | −11.1% | 54.0% |
| 27 |  Indianapolis Colts | 2-5 | −12.3% | 40.9% |
| 28 |  Tennessee Titans | 1-6 | −15.2% | 29.5% |
| 29 |  New York Jets | 2-5 | −16.0% | 44.6% |
| 30 |  Houston Texans | 2-5 | −19.6% | 48.2% |
| 31 |  Los Angeles Chargers | 0-6 | −22.7% | 22.7% |
| 32 |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-5 | −25.6% | 54.1% |
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What is luck?
Luck is the gap between a team's real win % and the win % its scoring margin points to (expected win %). A team at +10% has won about one more game in ten than its margin suggests. Close games, late swings and bounces tend to explain most of it.
How to use it
- Use it as context for a record: a 6-2 team and a 6-2 team can be very different teams.
- Check the close-games column alongside it: records built on one-score games are worth a second look.
- Pair it with the power rankings to see whether the record and the rating agree.