NFL Week 4 trends, 2025

What changed after Week 4

Season-to-date ranks among all 32 teams after Week 4 of the 2025 season, compared with where each team stood after Week 1. Offense numbers are what a team gained; defense numbers are what it allowed, so a defense that "rose" is allowing less.

Offense: EPA/play risers and fallers

• The Dolphins' offense rose from 30th to 13th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.257 to +0.034).
• The Lions' offense rose from 21st to 4th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.062 to +0.159).
• The Broncos' offense rose from 26th to 11th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.148 to +0.062).
• The Raiders' offense fell from 12th to 29th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.115 to -0.107).
• The Chargers' offense fell from 2nd to 17th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.320 to +0.021).
• The Jets' offense fell from 6th to 21st in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.212 to -0.010).

Defense: EPA/play allowed risers and fallers

• The Chargers' defense rose from 28th to 4th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.215 to -0.106).
• The Lions' defense rose from 26th to 5th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.200 to -0.091).
• The Chiefs' defense rose from 31st to 16th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.320 to +0.000).
• The Titans' defense fell from 7th to 30th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.148 to +0.161).
• The Commanders' defense fell from 5th to 24th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.241 to +0.057).
• The Bears' defense fell from 6th to 19th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.177 to +0.009).

Other movers

• The Rams' offense rose from 19th to 4th in success rate over the last three weeks (41.8% to 48.8%).
• The Eagles' offense fell from 4th to 19th in success rate over the last three weeks (50.8% to 44.1%).
• The Seahawks' offense rose from 31st to 7th in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (-0.407 to +0.187).
• The Raiders' offense fell from 6th to 24th in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (+0.378 to -0.021).
• The Lions' offense rose from 29th to 9th in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.255 to +0.000).
• The Jets' offense fell from 7th to 24th in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.083 to -0.121).
• The Patriots' offense rose from 20th to 8th in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (12.2% to 18.0%).
• The Commanders' offense fell from 11th to 27th in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (17.6% to 11.6%).
• The Dolphins' offense rose from 18th to 7th in sack + QB hit rate allowed over the last three weeks (16.7% to 10.4%).
• The Browns' offense fell from 11th to 28th in sack + QB hit rate allowed over the last three weeks (10.4% to 19.5%).
• The Bears' offense rose from 28th to 5th in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (25.0% to 44.6%).
• The Jets' offense fell from 8th to 30th in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (50.0% to 31.1%).
• The Ravens' offense became more pass-heavy over the last three weeks: its PROE went from -10.8% (30th) to +1.7% (7th).
• The Raiders' offense became more run-heavy over the last three weeks: its PROE went from +9.5% (3rd) to -3.4% (24th).
• The Chargers' defense rose from 22nd to 1st in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (46.6% to 37.1%).
• The Bengals' defense fell from 8th to 29th in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (39.4% to 47.8%).
• The Chiefs' defense rose from 31st to 7th in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (+0.463 to -0.069).
• The Commanders' defense fell from 6th to 28th in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (-0.262 to +0.201).
• The Lions' defense rose from 19th to 3rd in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.032 to -0.228).
• The Titans' defense fell from 15th to 31st in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.085 to +0.156).
• The 49ers' defense rose from 24th to 3rd in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (21.7% to 10.0%).
• The Cowboys' defense fell from 4th to 25th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (6.2% to 18.2%).
• The Vikings' defense rose from 24th to 6th in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (9.3% to 17.9%).
• The Jets' defense fell from 7th to 29th in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (20.6% to 8.8%).
• The Chiefs' defense rose from 30th to 11th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (58.3% to 34.8%).
• The Giants' defense fell from 12th to 26th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (40.0% to 44.0%).

EPA/play ranks after Week 4, all 32 teams

Active streaks

• The Jaguars' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/dropback in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• The Rams' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/dropback in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• The Eagles' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/dropback in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• The Jaguars' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/play in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• The Cardinals' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/rush in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• The Browns' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/rush in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• The Patriots' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/rush in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• The Seahawks' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/rush in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• Josh Allen has had positive EPA per play in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• Jordan Love has had positive EPA per play in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt has had positive EPA per carry in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• Trey McBride has had a 20%+ target share in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has had 75+ receiving yards in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• Puka Nacua has had 75+ receiving yards in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• Justin Jefferson has had a 25%+ target share in 4 straight games (since Week 1).
• Garrett Wilson has had a 25%+ target share in 4 straight games (since Week 1).

Player movers

• Sam Darnold rose from 30th to 7th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.361 to +0.206).
• Drake Maye rose from 20th to 6th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.025 to +0.265).
• Justin Herbert fell from 3rd to 24th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.463 to +0.021).
• Geno Smith fell from 6th to 26th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.378 to -0.013).
• David Montgomery rose from 27th to 6th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.230 to +0.064).
• Jahmyr Gibbs rose from 31st to 11th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.297 to +0.027).
• Derrick Henry fell from 3rd to 34th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.194 to -0.128).
• Zach Charbonnet fell from 11th to 41st among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.010 to -0.282).
• Amon-Ra St. Brown rose from 52nd to 13th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (15.8% to 27.4%).
• Tre Tucker rose from 78th to 46th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (9.1% to 17.9%).
• Josh Palmer fell from 37th to 65th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (20.0% to 13.4%).
• Sterling Shepard fell from 37th to 64th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (20.0% to 14.2%).
• Jake Ferguson rose from 13th to 2nd among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (18.2% to 23.4%).
• Travis Kelce rose from 27th to 17th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (10.5% to 16.1%).
• Noah Fant fell from 7th to 21st among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (21.7% to 15.2%).
• Mike Gesicki fell from 21st to 33rd among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (13.0% to 9.6%).