NFL Week 9 trends, 2025

What changed after Week 9

Season-to-date ranks among all 32 teams after Week 9 of the 2025 season, compared with where each team stood after Week 6. Offense numbers are what a team gained; defense numbers are what it allowed, so a defense that "rose" is allowing less.

Offense: EPA/play risers and fallers

• The Eagles' offense rose from 22nd to 10th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.002 to +0.087).
• The Bears' offense rose from 19th to 9th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.012 to +0.090).
• The Bengals' offense rose from 31st to 22nd in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.180 to -0.011).
• The Dolphins' offense fell from 12th to 25th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.054 to -0.034).
• The Commanders' offense fell from 8th to 20th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.095 to +0.015).
• The Buccaneers' offense fell from 7th to 17th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.123 to +0.019).

Defense: EPA/play allowed risers and fallers

• The Patriots' defense rose from 23rd to 8th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.036 to -0.035).
• The Buccaneers' defense rose from 14th to 5th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.004 to -0.080).
• The Bills' defense rose from 21st to 12th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.030 to -0.018).
• The Steelers' defense fell from 10th to 22nd in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.010 to +0.056).
• The Raiders' defense fell from 13th to 23rd in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.002 to +0.058).
• The Falcons' defense fell from 5th to 14th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.056 to -0.005).

Other movers

• The Bengals' offense rose from 30th to 17th in success rate over the last three weeks (40.4% to 44.9%).
• The Buccaneers' offense fell from 19th to 28th in success rate over the last three weeks (44.0% to 41.2%).
• The Eagles' offense rose from 23rd to 12th in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (+0.005 to +0.119).
• The Commanders' offense fell from 10th to 20th in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (+0.196 to +0.042).
• The Bears' offense rose from 28th to 10th in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.145 to 0.000).
• The Texans' offense fell from 12th to 28th in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.020 to -0.145).
• The Chargers' offense rose from 24th to 13th in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (13.0% to 15.9%).
• The Raiders' offense fell from 10th to 24th in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (16.3% to 14.0%).
• The Bengals' offense rose from 30th to 19th in sack + QB hit rate allowed over the last three weeks (20.0% to 15.8%).
• The Cardinals' offense fell from 20th to 27th in sack + QB hit rate allowed over the last three weeks (15.4% to 18.2%).
• The Commanders' offense rose from 29th to 16th in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (33.9% to 40.0%).
• The Dolphins' offense fell from 3rd to 18th in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (46.5% to 38.5%).
• The Colts' offense became more pass-heavy over the last three weeks: its PROE went from -2.0% (19th) to +2.3% (6th).
• The 49ers' offense became more run-heavy over the last three weeks: its PROE went from +1.0% (8th) to -1.2% (16th).
• The Patriots' defense rose from 27th to 14th in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (47.8% to 44.2%).
• The Jets' defense fell from 2nd to 11th in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (40.6% to 42.6%).
• The Buccaneers' defense rose from 22nd to 6th in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (+0.125 to -0.029).
• The Commanders' defense fell from 19th to 28th in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (+0.109 to +0.218).
• The Eagles' defense rose from 22nd to 13th in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.048 to -0.081).
• The Steelers' defense fell from 13th to 26th in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.102 to +0.004).
• The Panthers' defense rose from 18th to 5th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (15.2% to 13.6%).
• The Vikings' defense fell from 8th to 30th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (13.8% to 18.6%).
• The Bills' defense rose from 15th to 2nd in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (14.9% to 19.7%).
• The Commanders' defense fell from 8th to 16th in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (16.0% to 14.8%).
• The Patriots' defense rose from 18th to 4th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (40.6% to 33.7%).
• The Falcons' defense fell from 4th to 27th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (32.1% to 43.5%).

EPA/play ranks after Week 9, all 32 teams

Hot and cold: the last five games

• Over its last five games the Bengals' offense ranks 4th in EPA/play (+0.167), 18 spots above its season rank (22nd).
• Over its last five games the Giants' offense ranks 16th in EPA/play (+0.060), 7 spots above its season rank (23rd).
• Over its last five games the Lions' offense ranks 19th in EPA/play (+0.014), 12 spots below its season rank (7th).
• Over its last five games the Ravens' offense ranks 26th in EPA/play (-0.061), 10 spots below its season rank (16th).
• Over its last five games the Dolphins' defense ranks 14th in EPA/play allowed (+0.027), 16 spots above its season rank (30th).
• Over its last five games the Cowboys' defense ranks 22nd in EPA/play allowed (+0.076), 9 spots above its season rank (31st).
• Over its last five games the Vikings' defense ranks 28th in EPA/play allowed (+0.124), 18 spots below its season rank (10th).
• Over its last five games the Jaguars' defense ranks 24th in EPA/play allowed (+0.086), 9 spots below its season rank (15th).

Active streaks

• The Browns' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/rush in 8 straight games (since Week 1).
• The Bills' offense has beaten the league average in success rate in 8 straight games (since Week 1).
• The Patriots' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/play in 7 straight games (since Week 3).
• The Rams' offense has beaten the league average in success rate in 7 straight games (since Week 2).
• The Texans' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/dropback in 6 straight games (since Week 3).
• The Texans' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/play in 6 straight games (since Week 3).
• The Texans' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/rush in 6 straight games (since Week 3).
• The Texans' defense has held opponents below the league average in success rate in 6 straight games (since Week 3).
• Jordan Love has had positive EPA per play in 8 straight games (since Week 1).
• Drake Maye has had positive EPA per play in 8 straight games (since Week 2).
• Trey McBride has had a 20%+ target share in 8 straight games (since Week 1).
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has had 75+ receiving yards in 8 straight games (since Week 1).
• Justin Jefferson has had a 25%+ target share in 8 straight games (since Week 1).
• Kareem Hunt has had positive EPA per carry in 7 straight games (since Week 3).
• Amon-Ra St. Brown has had a 25%+ target share in 7 straight games (since Week 2).
• Patrick Mahomes has had 250+ passing yards in 6 straight games (since Week 4).

Player movers

• Jaxson Dart rose from 26th to 16th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.029 to +0.098).
• Jalen Hurts rose from 19th to 9th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.060 to +0.162).
• Carson Wentz fell from 11th to 23rd among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.154 to +0.030).
• Baker Mayfield fell from 5th to 15th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.291 to +0.114).
• Kyren Williams rose from 31st to 20th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.119 to -0.040).
• Breece Hall rose from 29th to 18th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.096 to -0.038).
• Bijan Robinson fell from 11th to 28th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.023 to -0.079).
• David Montgomery fell from 8th to 24th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.048 to -0.053).
• DeVonta Smith rose from 30th to 14th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (21.3% to 26.6%).
• Rashid Shaheed rose from 45th to 31st among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (18.2% to 21.8%).
• Marquise Brown fell from 28th to 54th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (21.5% to 17.7%).
• Mike Evans fell from 8th to 28th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (29.5% to 22.1%).
• Tucker Kraft rose from 18th to 8th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (16.2% to 18.8%).
• Kyle Pitts rose from 12th to 4th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (17.4% to 20.7%).
• Chig Okonkwo fell from 17th to 26th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (16.3% to 14.2%).
• Noah Fant fell from 27th to 34th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (13.6% to 11.0%).