NFL Week 17 trends, 2025

What changed after Week 17

Season-to-date ranks among all 32 teams after Week 17 of the 2025 season, compared with where each team stood after Week 14. Offense numbers are what a team gained; defense numbers are what it allowed, so a defense that "rose" is allowing less.

Offense: EPA/play risers and fallers

• The Ravens' offense rose from 21st to 14th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.019 to +0.029).
• The Patriots' offense rose from 7th to 1st in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.109 to +0.148).
• The 49ers' offense rose from 11th to 6th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.057 to +0.106).
• The Texans' offense fell from 19th to 24th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.011 to -0.013).
• The Chiefs' offense fell from 6th to 10th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.111 to +0.067).
• The Colts' offense fell from 4th to 8th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.124 to +0.082).

Defense: EPA/play allowed risers and fallers

• The Vikings' defense rose from 9th to 5th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.057 to -0.088).
• The Falcons' defense rose from 18th to 14th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.008 to +0.004).
• The Bears' defense rose from 19th to 16th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.014 to +0.009).
• The Packers' defense fell from 15th to 21st in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.006 to +0.039).
• The Rams' defense fell from 4th to 9th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.102 to -0.066).
• The Buccaneers' defense fell from 14th to 19th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.015 to +0.015).

Other movers

• The Ravens' offense rose from 21st to 12th in success rate over the last three weeks (43.4% to 45.1%).
• The Lions' offense fell from 7th to 14th in success rate over the last three weeks (46.6% to 44.6%).
• The Jaguars' offense rose from 22nd to 15th in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (-0.010 to +0.064).
• The Cardinals' offense fell from 16th to 21st in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (+0.034 to +0.021).
• The 49ers' offense rose from 18th to 11th in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.047 to -0.018).
• The Lions' offense fell from 4th to 20th in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.024 to -0.052).
• The Dolphins' offense rose from 23rd to 13th in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (14.1% to 15.9%).
• The Chiefs' offense fell from 13th to 21st in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (15.9% to 14.8%).
• The Texans' offense rose from 15th to 10th in sack + QB hit rate allowed over the last three weeks (13.6% to 12.6%).
• The Ravens' offense rose from 21st to 10th in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (38.2% to 42.0%).
• The Commanders' offense fell from 17th to 25th in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (39.3% to 36.9%).
• The Saints' offense became more pass-heavy over the last three weeks: its PROE went from -5.0% (25th) to -2.9% (18th).
• The Saints' defense rose from 18th to 11th in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (44.5% to 42.3%).
• The Packers' defense fell from 12th to 18th in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (43.1% to 44.7%).
• The Saints' defense rose from 19th to 12th in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (+0.043 to -0.006).
• The Packers' defense fell from 16th to 22nd in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (+0.035 to +0.096).
• The Chargers' defense rose from 14th to 4th in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.073 to -0.099).
• The Lions' defense fell from 7th to 17th in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.108 to -0.040).
• The Bills' defense rose from 25th to 19th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (16.7% to 16.3%).
• The Colts' defense fell from 18th to 26th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (15.9% to 17.1%).
• The Giants' defense rose from 19th to 13th in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (14.3% to 16.0%).
• The Packers' defense fell from 4th to 11th in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (17.1% to 16.1%).
• The Eagles' defense rose from 24th to 14th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (42.1% to 40.0%).
• The Cardinals' defense fell from 15th to 26th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (39.0% to 43.5%).

EPA/play ranks after Week 17, all 32 teams

Hot and cold: the last five games

• Over its last five games the Saints' offense ranks 15th in EPA/play (+0.025), 12 spots above its season rank (27th).
• Over its last five games the Bengals' offense ranks 10th in EPA/play (+0.092), 11 spots above its season rank (21st).
• Over its last five games the Colts' offense ranks 29th in EPA/play (-0.129), 21 spots below its season rank (8th).
• Over its last five games the Chiefs' offense ranks 28th in EPA/play (-0.118), 18 spots below its season rank (10th).
• Over its last five games the Bengals' defense ranks 11th in EPA/play allowed (-0.009), 19 spots above its season rank (30th).
• Over its last five games the Giants' defense ranks 15th in EPA/play allowed (+0.018), 13 spots above its season rank (28th).
• Over its last five games the Rams' defense ranks 26th in EPA/play allowed (+0.094), 17 spots below its season rank (9th).
• Over its last five games the Lions' defense ranks 24th in EPA/play allowed (+0.092), 12 spots below its season rank (12th).

Active streaks

• The Texans' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/play in 14 straight games (since Week 3).
• The Packers' offense has beaten the league average in 3rd-down conversion rate in 10 straight games (since Week 8).
• The Broncos' defense has held opponents below the league average in success rate in 8 straight games (since Week 9).
• The Seahawks' defense has held opponents below the league average in success rate in 8 straight games (since Week 10).
• The 49ers' offense has beaten the league average in EPA/dropback in 8 straight games (since Week 9).
• The 49ers' offense has beaten the league average in EPA/play in 8 straight games (since Week 9).
• The Ravens' offense has beaten the league average in EPA/rush in 8 straight games (since Week 10).
• The Jaguars' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/dropback in 7 straight games (since Week 11).
• Drake Maye has had positive EPA per play in 15 straight games (since Week 2).
• Wan'Dale Robinson has had a 25%+ target share in 8 straight games (since Week 9).
• Puka Nacua has had a 25%+ target share in 7 straight games (since Week 11).
• Jordan Love has had positive EPA per play in 6 straight games (since Week 11).
• Brock Purdy has had positive EPA per play in 6 straight games (since Week 11).
• Chris Rodriguez Jr. has had positive EPA per carry in 6 straight games (since Week 9).
• George Kittle has had 50+ receiving yards in 6 straight games (since Week 10).
• George Kittle has had a 20%+ target share in 6 straight games (since Week 10).

Player movers

• Tyler Shough rose from 31st to 25th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.092 to +0.016).
• Trevor Lawrence rose from 23rd to 17th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.020 to +0.081).
• Sam Darnold fell from 4th to 13th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.185 to +0.114).
• Jaxson Dart fell from 13th to 18th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.079 to +0.059).
• Zach Charbonnet rose from 31st to 16th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.085 to +0.006).
• Derrick Henry rose from 25th to 11th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.066 to +0.028).
• Chuba Hubbard fell from 21st to 42nd among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.046 to -0.124).
• Josh Jacobs fell from 14th to 31st among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.005 to -0.063).
• Courtland Sutton rose from 35th to 27th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (20.2% to 21.7%).
• Adonai Mitchell rose from 66th to 60th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (12.6% to 15.0%).
• Marvin Harrison Jr. fell from 33rd to 48th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (20.2% to 18.0%).
• Calvin Austin III fell from 59th to 69th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (14.6% to 12.7%).
• Travis Kelce rose from 14th to 9th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (18.6% to 19.7%).
• Mark Andrews rose from 19th to 16th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (16.9% to 17.2%).
• Jake Ferguson fell from 12th to 17th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (18.7% to 17.1%).
• Jonnu Smith fell from 30th to 35th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (11.7% to 10.9%).