NFL Week 18 trends, 2025

What changed after Week 18

Season-to-date ranks among all 32 teams after Week 18 of the 2025 season, compared with where each team stood after Week 15. Offense numbers are what a team gained; defense numbers are what it allowed, so a defense that "rose" is allowing less.

Offense: EPA/play risers and fallers

• The Ravens' offense rose from 20th to 12th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.008 to +0.034).
• The Bengals' offense rose from 26th to 19th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.056 to -0.008).
• The Buccaneers' offense rose from 24th to 20th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.021 to -0.009).
• The Chargers' offense fell from 21st to 25th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.014 to -0.023).
• The Chiefs' offense fell from 8th to 11th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.097 to +0.035).
• The Colts' offense fell from 6th to 9th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.109 to +0.072).

Defense: EPA/play allowed risers and fallers

• The Bills' defense rose from 19th to 13th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.011 to -0.016).
• The Vikings' defense rose from 9th to 4th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.043 to -0.099).
• The Falcons' defense rose from 20th to 15th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.012 to -0.004).
• The Bears' defense fell from 12th to 19th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.019 to +0.018).
• The Colts' defense fell from 11th to 16th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.022 to +0.004).
• The Ravens' defense fell from 16th to 21st in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.003 to +0.025).

Other movers

• The Bengals' offense rose from 21st to 11th in success rate over the last three weeks (43.2% to 45.5%).
• The Chiefs' offense fell from 6th to 14th in success rate over the last three weeks (47.0% to 44.5%).
• The Jaguars' offense rose from 16th to 11th in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (+0.045 to +0.084).
• The Chiefs' offense fell from 7th to 12th in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (+0.165 to +0.078).
• The 49ers' offense rose from 18th to 9th in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.049 to -0.023).
• The Packers' offense fell from 10th to 21st in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.018 to -0.063).
• The Dolphins' offense rose from 21st to 12th in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (14.8% to 15.9%).
• The Chiefs' offense fell from 14th to 23rd in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (15.6% to 14.2%).
• The Falcons' offense fell from 6th to 12th in sack + QB hit rate allowed over the last three weeks (11.4% to 12.9%).
• The Ravens' offense rose from 22nd to 13th in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (38.0% to 41.3%).
• The Chiefs' offense fell from 11th to 22nd in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (41.3% to 38.0%).
• The Saints' offense became more pass-heavy over the last three weeks: its PROE went from -4.6% (24th) to -3.0% (17th).
• The Raiders' offense became more run-heavy over the last three weeks: its PROE went from +0.3% (10th) to -1.7% (15th).
• The Falcons' defense rose from 24th to 17th in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (45.8% to 44.6%).
• The Jets' defense fell from 14th to 24th in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (44.0% to 45.6%).
• The Saints' defense rose from 19th to 12th in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (+0.064 to -0.015).
• The Bears' defense fell from 12th to 17th in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (-0.008 to +0.052).
• The Vikings' defense rose from 21st to 12th in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.029 to -0.078).
• The Browns' defense fell from 2nd to 13th in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.130 to -0.074).
• The Bills' defense rose from 26th to 16th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (17.1% to 15.6%).
• The Colts' defense fell from 18th to 24th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (16.2% to 17.0%).
• The Raiders' defense rose from 27th to 21st in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (12.5% to 14.2%).
• The Titans' defense fell from 5th to 13th in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (16.9% to 16.1%).
• The Saints' defense rose from 11th to 4th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (37.8% to 34.9%).
• The Cardinals' defense fell from 19th to 29th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (40.5% to 44.8%).

EPA/play ranks after Week 18, all 32 teams

Hot and cold: the last five games

• Over its last five games the Vikings' offense ranks 14th in EPA/play (+0.033), 14 spots above its season rank (28th).
• Over its last five games the Saints' offense ranks 13th in EPA/play (+0.039), 14 spots above its season rank (27th).
• Over its last five games the Chiefs' offense ranks 32nd in EPA/play (-0.281), 21 spots below its season rank (11th).
• Over its last five games the Colts' offense ranks 28th in EPA/play (-0.119), 19 spots below its season rank (9th).
• Over its last five games the Giants' defense ranks 12th in EPA/play allowed (-0.040), 13 spots above its season rank (25th).
• Over its last five games the Bengals' defense ranks 18th in EPA/play allowed (+0.039), 11 spots above its season rank (29th).
• Over its last five games the Rams' defense ranks 20th in EPA/play allowed (+0.054), 11 spots below its season rank (9th).
• Over its last five games the Colts' defense ranks 25th in EPA/play allowed (+0.089), 9 spots below its season rank (16th).

Active streaks

• The Texans' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/play in 15 straight games (since Week 3).
• The Broncos' defense has held opponents below the league average in success rate in 9 straight games (since Week 9).
• The Seahawks' defense has held opponents below the league average in success rate in 9 straight games (since Week 10).
• The Ravens' offense has beaten the league average in EPA/rush in 9 straight games (since Week 10).
• The Jaguars' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/dropback in 8 straight games (since Week 11).
• The Jaguars' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/play in 8 straight games (since Week 11).
• The Patriots' offense has beaten the league average in EPA/play in 8 straight games (since Week 10).
• The Seahawks' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/rush in 7 straight games (since Week 12).
• Drake Maye has had positive EPA per play in 16 straight games (since Week 2).
• Wan'Dale Robinson has had a 25%+ target share in 8 straight games (since Week 9).
• Puka Nacua has had a 25%+ target share in 8 straight games (since Week 11).
• Chris Rodriguez Jr. has had positive EPA per carry in 7 straight games (since Week 9).
• George Kittle has had a 20%+ target share in 7 straight games (since Week 10).
• Trey McBride has had a 20%+ target share in 7 straight games (since Week 12).
• Jordan Love has had positive EPA per play in 6 straight games (since Week 11).
• Trevor Lawrence has had positive EPA per play in 6 straight games (since Week 13).

Player movers

• Matthew Stafford rose from 8th to 4th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.175 to +0.199).
• Justin Herbert rose from 24th to 21st among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.025 to +0.050).
• Sam Darnold fell from 7th to 12th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.178 to +0.116).
• Jaxson Dart fell from 15th to 19th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.083 to +0.074).
• Derrick Henry rose from 23rd to 11th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.045 to +0.030).
• Zach Charbonnet rose from 30th to 21st among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.081 to -0.012).
• Josh Jacobs fell from 18th to 30th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.003 to -0.063).
• Jahmyr Gibbs fell from 9th to 20th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.056 to -0.011).
• Parker Washington rose from 57th to 44th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (16.0% to 18.4%).
• Christian Watson rose from 46th to 39th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (18.1% to 19.2%).
• Marvin Harrison Jr. fell from 35th to 48th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (20.2% to 18.0%).
• Rashid Shaheed fell from 41st to 53rd among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (19.0% to 16.7%).
• Colston Loveland rose from 27th to 20th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (13.5% to 16.5%).
• Colby Parkinson rose from 35th to 31st among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (10.3% to 11.4%).
• Oronde Gadsden II fell from 22nd to 26th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (15.5% to 14.3%).
• Jonnu Smith fell from 32nd to 36th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (11.4% to 10.3%).