NFL Week 16 trends, 2025

What changed after Week 16

Season-to-date ranks among all 32 teams after Week 16 of the 2025 season, compared with where each team stood after Week 13. Offense numbers are what a team gained; defense numbers are what it allowed, so a defense that "rose" is allowing less.

Offense: EPA/play risers and fallers

• The Steelers' offense rose from 19th to 13th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.012 to +0.041).
• The Ravens' offense rose from 24th to 18th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.022 to -0.001).
• The Rams' offense rose from 6th to 1st in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.113 to +0.154).
• The Chiefs' offense fell from 3rd to 9th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.143 to +0.078).
• The Colts' offense fell from 1st to 7th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.152 to +0.099).
• The Commanders' offense fell from 12th to 17th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.038 to +0.000).

Defense: EPA/play allowed risers and fallers

• The Saints' defense rose from 16th to 10th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.007 to -0.037).
• The Bears' defense rose from 18th to 12th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.002 to -0.013).
• The Chiefs' defense rose from 20th to 14th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.014 to +0.005).
• The Cardinals' defense fell from 19th to 24th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.009 to +0.058).
• The Packers' defense fell from 14th to 19th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.016 to +0.013).
• The Lions' defense fell from 11th to 15th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.031 to +0.005).

Other movers

• The Broncos' offense rose from 23rd to 16th in success rate over the last three weeks (42.6% to 44.2%).
• The Jets' offense fell from 21st to 27th in success rate over the last three weeks (43.0% to 41.5%).
• The Jaguars' offense rose from 25th to 15th in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (-0.038 to +0.063).
• The Chiefs' offense fell from 3rd to 9th in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (+0.231 to +0.137).
• The Steelers' offense rose from 11th to 4th in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.017 to +0.029).
• The Jaguars' offense fell from 3rd to 18th in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.029 to -0.037).
• The Dolphins' offense rose from 21st to 14th in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (14.4% to 15.8%).
• The Chiefs' offense fell from 11th to 17th in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (16.1% to 15.4%).
• The Jaguars' offense rose from 25th to 17th in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (36.2% to 39.2%).
• The Commanders' offense fell from 13th to 25th in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (40.0% to 37.6%).
• The Saints' offense became more pass-heavy over the last three weeks: its PROE went from -4.4% (24th) to -3.2% (18th).
• The Ravens' offense became more run-heavy over the last three weeks: its PROE went from -4.4% (23rd) to -6.9% (30th).
• The Eagles' defense rose from 14th to 5th in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (43.6% to 41.7%).
• The Raiders' defense fell from 17th to 25th in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (44.8% to 46.0%).
• The Saints' defense rose from 22nd to 12th in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (+0.068 to +0.012).
• The Colts' defense fell from 13th to 19th in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (+0.005 to +0.064).
• The Jaguars' defense rose from 15th to 3rd in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.081 to -0.109).
• The Lions' defense fell from 5th to 18th in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.117 to -0.047).
• The Texans' defense rose from 23rd to 15th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (16.5% to 15.9%).
• The Falcons' defense fell from 13th to 20th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (15.2% to 16.3%).
• The Eagles' defense rose from 17th to 7th in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (15.4% to 16.7%).
• The Colts' defense fell from 15th to 23rd in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (15.7% to 14.0%).
• The Dolphins' defense rose from 23rd to 14th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (41.5% to 39.1%).
• The Bills' defense fell from 11th to 26th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (37.6% to 42.9%).

EPA/play ranks after Week 16, all 32 teams

Hot and cold: the last five games

• Over its last five games the Panthers' offense ranks 8th in EPA/play (+0.092), 15 spots above its season rank (23rd).
• Over its last five games the Falcons' offense ranks 15th in EPA/play (+0.006), 9 spots above its season rank (24th).
• Over its last five games the Colts' offense ranks 28th in EPA/play (-0.093), 21 spots below its season rank (7th).
• Over its last five games the Chiefs' offense ranks 25th in EPA/play (-0.069), 16 spots below its season rank (9th).
• Over its last five games the Bengals' defense ranks 16th in EPA/play allowed (+0.001), 15 spots above its season rank (31st).
• Over its last five games the 49ers' defense ranks 12th in EPA/play allowed (-0.025), 11 spots above its season rank (23rd).
• Over its last five games the Lions' defense ranks 30th in EPA/play allowed (+0.151), 15 spots below its season rank (15th).
• Over its last five games the Broncos' defense ranks 20th in EPA/play allowed (+0.043), 11 spots below its season rank (9th).

Active streaks

• The Texans' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/play in 13 straight games (since Week 3).
• The Browns' defense has beaten the league average in sack + QB hit rate in 9 straight games (since Week 7).
• The Packers' offense has beaten the league average in 3rd-down conversion rate in 9 straight games (since Week 8).
• The Broncos' defense has held opponents below the league average in success rate in 7 straight games (since Week 9).
• The Seahawks' defense has held opponents below the league average in success rate in 7 straight games (since Week 10).
• The 49ers' offense has beaten the league average in EPA/dropback in 7 straight games (since Week 9).
• The 49ers' offense has beaten the league average in EPA/play in 7 straight games (since Week 9).
• The Ravens' offense has beaten the league average in EPA/rush in 7 straight games (since Week 10).
• Drake Maye has had positive EPA per play in 14 straight games (since Week 2).
• Harold Fannin Jr. has had a 20%+ target share in 9 straight games (since Week 7).
• Jared Goff has had 250+ passing yards in 8 straight games (since Week 9).
• Wan'Dale Robinson has had a 25%+ target share in 7 straight games (since Week 9).
• Jordan Love has had positive EPA per play in 6 straight games (since Week 11).
• C.J. Stroud has had positive EPA per play in 6 straight games (since Week 8).
• Chris Rodriguez Jr. has had positive EPA per carry in 6 straight games (since Week 9).
• George Kittle has had 50+ receiving yards in 6 straight games (since Week 10).

Player movers

• Trevor Lawrence rose from 27th to 15th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.013 to +0.087).
• Brock Purdy rose from 9th to 1st among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.160 to +0.290).
• Marcus Mariota fell from 16th to 23rd among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.071 to +0.020).
• Jayden Daniels fell from 21st to 27th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.048 to -0.003).
• Kenny Gainwell rose from 14th to 7th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.010 to +0.051).
• Emanuel Wilson rose from 32nd to 25th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.079 to -0.041).
• Travis Etienne fell from 16th to 30th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.000 to -0.062).
• Kimani Vidal fell from 23rd to 37th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.043 to -0.094).
• Michael Wilson rose from 46th to 37th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (17.6% to 19.5%).
• Adonai Mitchell rose from 70th to 62nd among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (12.0% to 14.1%).
• Calvin Austin III fell from 56th to 69th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (15.7% to 12.7%).
• Elic Ayomanor fell from 41st to 51st among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (18.6% to 17.0%).
• Dallas Goedert rose from 14th to 9th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (18.5% to 19.6%).
• Harold Fannin Jr. rose from 8th to 4th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (19.4% to 22.0%).
• Jake Ferguson fell from 9th to 16th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (19.1% to 17.9%).
• Jonnu Smith fell from 29th to 34th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (12.5% to 10.7%).