NHL Luck Rankings
Updated
Which NHL teams have won more, or fewer, games than their play deserves.
NHL Luck Rankings
| # | Team | Record | Luck | Expected win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Calgary Flames | 5-6-0 | +11.8% | 31.9% |
| 2 |  Columbus Blue Jackets | 5-5-0 | +11.1% | 38.3% |
| 3 |  Buffalo Sabres | 5-4-3 | +9.7% | 39.3% |
| 4 |  Chicago Blackhawks | 4-8-0 | +8.2% | 25.9% |
| 5 |  Ottawa Senators | 8-5-0 | +6.6% | 51.3% |
| 6 |  Tampa Bay Lightning | 7-3-1 | +6.3% | 55.5% |
| 7 |  San Jose Sharks | 6-6-1 | +6.2% | 40.4% |
| 8 |  Montreal Canadiens | 7-3-2 | +4.9% | 52.8% |
| 9 |  Philadelphia Flyers | 3-7-4 | +4.7% | 25.6% |
| 10 |  Utah Mammoth | 8-5-0 | +3.4% | 54.5% |
| 11 |  Anaheim Ducks | 5-6-1 | +3.4% | 42.5% |
| 12 |  Washington Capitals | 6-4-0 | +3.2% | 53.0% |
| 13 |  Detroit Red Wings | 5-4-3 | +0.6% | 44.4% |
| 14 |  Edmonton Oilers | 8-2-2 | +0.1% | 59.4% |
| 15 |  New Jersey Devils | 8-4-0 | −0.2% | 60.7% |
| 16 |  Carolina Hurricanes | 10-2-2 | −0.4% | 70.9% |
| 17 |  Florida Panthers | 7-4-2 | −0.5% | 52.6% |
| 18 |  Winnipeg Jets | 4-5-3 | −0.5% | 37.6% |
| 19 |  Seattle Kraken | 7-4-1 | −1.8% | 53.4% |
| 20 |  Vegas Golden Knights | 9-4-1 | −2.7% | 63.0% |
| 21 |  Los Angeles Kings | 3-6-2 | −3.2% | 36.5% |
| 22 |  Colorado Avalanche | 6-5-1 | −3.5% | 60.0% |
| 23 |  St. Louis Blues | 5-6-1 | −4.3% | 47.3% |
| 24 |  Nashville Predators | 4-3-5 | −4.6% | 43.1% |
| 25 |  New York Islanders | 6-4-2 | −4.8% | 55.8% |
| 26 |  New York Rangers | 7-6-1 | −4.9% | 52.3% |
| 27 |  Dallas Stars | 7-4-1 | −5.0% | 63.6% |
| 28 |  Minnesota Wild | 9-3-2 | −5.4% | 66.9% |
| 29 |  Pittsburgh Penguins | 5-6-1 | −5.5% | 50.0% |
| 30 |  Vancouver Canucks | 3-10-1 | −6.3% | 30.4% |
| 31 |  Toronto Maple Leafs | 7-5-2 | −9.3% | 56.0% |
| 32 |  Boston Bruins | 9-3-1 | −11.8% | 75.5% |
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Power Rankings is free: every team, every split, updated through the day.
What is luck?
Luck is the gap between a team's real win % and the win % its scoring margin points to (expected win %). A team at +10% has won about one more game in ten than its margin suggests. Close games, late swings and bounces tend to explain most of it.
How to use it
- Use it as context for a record: a 6-2 team and a 6-2 team can be very different teams.
- Check the close-games column alongside it: records built on one-score games are worth a second look.
- Pair it with the power rankings to see whether the record and the rating agree.