MLB Luck Rankings
Updated
Which MLB teams have won more, or fewer, games than their play deserves.
MLB Luck Rankings
| # | Team | Record | Luck | Expected win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cincinnati Reds | 75-87 | +5.8% | 40.2% |
| 2 | San Diego Padres | 91-71 | +5.0% | 52.8% |
| 3 |  Philadelphia Phillies | 88-74 | +4.2% | 50.9% |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rays | 98-64 | +3.4% | 55.6% |
| 5 |  Toronto Blue Jays | 79-83 | +3.3% | 46.9% |
| 6 |  Houston Astros | 81-81 | +3.1% | 48.0% |
| 7 |  Cleveland Guardians | 85-77 | +2.7% | 50.7% |
| 8 |  Arizona Diamondbacks | 86-76 | +2.7% | 50.5% |
| 9 |  Texas Rangers | 80-82 | +2.4% | 46.9% |
| 10 |  Athletics | 64-98 | +2.2% | 36.6% |
| 11 |  Seattle Mariners | 76-86 | +1.3% | 46.2% |
| 12 | Kansas City Royals | 69-93 | +1.1% | 42.7% |
| 13 |  Baltimore Orioles | 79-82 | +0.9% | 48.7% |
| 14 |  Milwaukee Brewers | 103-59 | +0.6% | 63.4% |
| 15 |  Minnesota Twins | 77-85 | +0.3% | 46.5% |
| 16 |  Boston Red Sox | 87-75 | −0.1% | 55.5% |
| 17 |  New York Mets | 74-88 | −0.8% | 47.9% |
| 18 |  Miami Marlins | 80-82 | −1.1% | 50.1% |
| 19 |  Pittsburgh Pirates | 82-80 | −1.4% | 51.7% |
| 20 |  New York Yankees | 93-68 | −1.4% | 59.4% |
| 21 |  Los Angeles Dodgers | 100-62 | −1.9% | 63.4% |
| 22 |  Atlanta Braves | 94-68 | −2.0% | 57.8% |
| 23 |  St. Louis Cardinals | 77-85 | −2.6% | 48.2% |
| 24 |  Chicago White Sox | 84-78 | −3.4% | 53.5% |
| 25 | San Francisco Giants | 65-97 | −3.6% | 44.2% |
| 26 | Washington Nationals | 77-85 | −4.0% | 50.4% |
| 27 |  Chicago Cubs | 89-73 | −4.2% | 58.6% |
| 28 |  Los Angeles Angels | 62-100 | −5.3% | 43.7% |
| 29 |  Colorado Rockies | 58-104 | −6.2% | 39.7% |
| 30 |  Detroit Tigers | 76-86 | −6.7% | 54.8% |
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What is luck?
Luck is the gap between a team's real win % and the win % its scoring margin points to (expected win %). A team at +10% has won about one more game in ten than its margin suggests. Close games, late swings and bounces tend to explain most of it.
How to use it
- Use it as context for a record: a 6-2 team and a 6-2 team can be very different teams.
- Check the close-games column alongside it: records built on one-score games are worth a second look.
- Pair it with the power rankings to see whether the record and the rating agree.