NBA Luck Rankings
Updated · 2025-26 final. The 2026-27 season has tipped off (up to 4 games played per team so far); this table switches to 2026-27 once every team has played 8 games
Which NBA teams have won more, or fewer, games than their play deserves.
NBA Luck Rankings
| # | Team | Record | Luck | Expected win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Los Angeles Lakers | 53-28 | +9.8% | 55.6% |
| 2 |  Milwaukee Bucks | 32-50 | +7.3% | 31.8% |
| 3 |  Philadelphia 76ers | 45-37 | +5.4% | 49.5% |
| 4 |  Orlando Magic | 44-34 | +3.3% | 53.1% |
| 5 |  Sacramento Kings | 22-59 | +3.2% | 23.9% |
| 6 |  Chicago Bulls | 31-51 | +2.7% | 35.1% |
| 7 |  Brooklyn Nets | 20-62 | +2.3% | 22.1% |
| 8 |  Portland Trail Blazers | 42-40 | +2.1% | 49.1% |
| 9 |  San Antonio Spurs | 61-20 | +1.9% | 73.4% |
| 10 |  Washington Wizards | 17-65 | +1.1% | 19.6% |
| 11 |  Cleveland Cavaliers | 51-30 | +1.0% | 62.0% |
| 12 |  Phoenix Suns | 45-36 | +0.8% | 54.7% |
| 13 |  Denver Nuggets | 53-28 | +0.7% | 64.8% |
| 14 |  Minnesota Timberwolves | 49-33 | −0.2% | 60.0% |
| 15 |  Detroit Pistons | 59-22 | −0.3% | 73.1% |
| 16 |  Utah Jazz | 22-60 | −0.7% | 27.5% |
| 17 |  Atlanta Hawks | 46-36 | −1.0% | 57.1% |
| 18 |  Oklahoma City Thunder | 64-17 | −1.1% | 80.2% |
| 19 |  Memphis Grizzlies | 24-56 | −2.1% | 32.1% |
| 20 |  Houston Rockets | 52-30 | −2.3% | 65.7% |
| 21 |  LA Clippers | 42-40 | −2.3% | 53.5% |
| 22 |  Toronto Raptors | 46-36 | −2.6% | 58.7% |
| 23 |  Dallas Mavericks | 25-55 | −2.6% | 33.9% |
| 24 |  Golden State Warriors | 37-45 | −3.2% | 48.3% |
| 25 |  Boston Celtics | 56-26 | −4.2% | 72.5% |
| 26 |  Miami Heat | 43-39 | −4.3% | 56.8% |
| 27 |  Indiana Pacers | 19-63 | −4.5% | 27.7% |
| 28 |  New York Knicks | 51-29 | −4.8% | 68.5% |
| 29 |  New Orleans Pelicans | 26-55 | −4.9% | 37.0% |
| 30 |  Charlotte Hornets | 43-38 | −10.0% | 63.1% |
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Power Rankings is free: every team, every split, updated through the day.
What is luck?
Luck is the gap between a team's real win % and the win % its scoring margin points to (expected win %). A team at +10% has won about one more game in ten than its margin suggests. Close games, late swings and bounces tend to explain most of it.
How to use it
- Use it as context for a record: a 6-2 team and a 6-2 team can be very different teams.
- Check the close-games column alongside it: records built on one-score games are worth a second look.
- Pair it with the power rankings to see whether the record and the rating agree.