NCAAF Luck Rankings
Updated · Week 9 of 2026
Which NCAAF teams have won more, or fewer, games than their play deserves.
NCAAF Luck Rankings
| # | Team | Record | Luck | Expected win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stanford Cardinal | 4-4 | +36.8% | 13.2% |
| 2 |  Marshall Thundering Herd | 4-3 | +31.0% | 26.1% |
| 3 |  Florida Atlantic Owls | 5-2 | +30.6% | 40.8% |
| 4 |  Kent State Golden Flashes | 3-5 | +29.2% | 8.3% |
| 5 |  UTSA Roadrunners | 7-1 | +28.7% | 58.8% |
| 6 |  Kentucky Wildcats | 7-1 | +27.9% | 59.6% |
| 7 |  Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 4-3 | +27.2% | 29.9% |
| 8 |  Arizona State Sun Devils | 4-3 | +25.4% | 31.6% |
| 9 |  Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 5-2 | +25.4% | 46.0% |
| 10 |  Minnesota Golden Gophers | 5-2 | +24.6% | 46.8% |
| 11 |  Buffalo Bulls | 5-3 | +24.3% | 38.2% |
| 12 |  Clemson Tigers | 4-3 | +22.9% | 34.2% |
| 13 |  App State Mountaineers | 5-2 | +22.5% | 48.9% |
| 14 |  Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 3-5 | +22.1% | 15.4% |
| 15 |  Miami (OH) RedHawks | 5-3 | +21.4% | 41.1% |
| 16 |  Texas A&M Aggies | 4-4 | −11.8% | 61.8% |
| 17 |  Florida International Panthers | 3-4 | −12.2% | 55.1% |
| 18 |  LSU Tigers | 6-2 | −12.4% | 87.4% |
| 19 |  Baylor Bears | 4-3 | −13.8% | 70.9% |
| 20 |  Navy Midshipmen | 2-5 | −13.8% | 42.4% |
| 21 |  TCU Horned Frogs | 3-4 | −13.9% | 56.8% |
| 22 |  Nebraska Cornhuskers | 5-2 | −14.3% | 85.7% |
| 23 |  Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 2-6 | −15.3% | 40.3% |
| 24 |  Nevada Wolf Pack | 3-4 | −23.0% | 65.9% |
| 25 |  Penn State Nittany Lions | 3-4 | −30.1% | 73.0% |
Showing 25 of 138 teams.See all 138 in Power Rankings ›
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What is luck?
Luck is the gap between a team's real win % and the win % its scoring margin points to (expected win %). A team at +10% has won about one more game in ten than its margin suggests. Close games, late swings and bounces tend to explain most of it.
How to use it
- Use it as context for a record: a 6-2 team and a 6-2 team can be very different teams.
- Check the close-games column alongside it: records built on one-score games are worth a second look.
- Pair it with the power rankings to see whether the record and the rating agree.