NFL Week 15 trends, 2025

What changed after Week 15

Season-to-date ranks among all 32 teams after Week 15 of the 2025 season, compared with where each team stood after Week 12. Offense numbers are what a team gained; defense numbers are what it allowed, so a defense that "rose" is allowing less.

Offense: EPA/play risers and fallers

• The Jaguars' offense rose from 21st to 15th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.013 to +0.017).
• The Rams' offense rose from 5th to 2nd in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.111 to +0.145).
• The Lions' offense rose from 8th to 5th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.102 to +0.117).
• The Colts' offense fell from 1st to 6th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.172 to +0.109).
• The Chiefs' offense fell from 3rd to 8th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.135 to +0.097).
• The Commanders' offense fell from 14th to 17th in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.033 to +0.008).

Defense: EPA/play allowed risers and fallers

• The Ravens' defense rose from 22nd to 16th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.016 to +0.003).
• The Dolphins' defense rose from 27th to 22nd in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.106 to +0.054).
• The Bears' defense rose from 17th to 12th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.000 to -0.019).
• The Lions' defense fell from 6th to 14th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.059 to -0.011).
• The Cardinals' defense fell from 19th to 25th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (+0.005 to +0.059).
• The Packers' defense fell from 12th to 18th in EPA/play allowed over the last three weeks (-0.021 to +0.007).

Other movers

• The Broncos' offense rose from 24th to 16th in success rate over the last three weeks (42.3% to 44.1%).
• The Jets' offense fell from 21st to 26th in success rate over the last three weeks (42.8% to 42.3%).
• The Jaguars' offense rose from 25th to 16th in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (-0.053 to +0.045).
• The Ravens' offense fell from 19th to 25th in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks (+0.025 to -0.030).
• The Rams' offense rose from 15th to 2nd in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.032 to +0.060).
• The Jaguars' offense fell from 3rd to 12th in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.045 to -0.023).
• The Eagles' offense rose from 23rd to 15th in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (14.2% to 15.5%).
• The Chargers' offense fell from 16th to 22nd in explosive pass rate over the last three weeks (15.3% to 14.7%).
• The Broncos' offense rose from 18th to 12th in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (38.8% to 40.5%).
• The Dolphins' offense fell from 21st to 27th in 3rd-down conversion rate over the last three weeks (37.8% to 35.7%).
• The Broncos' offense became more pass-heavy over the last three weeks: its PROE went from -0.2% (11th) to +1.2% (5th).
• The Colts' offense became more run-heavy over the last three weeks: its PROE went from +2.2% (6th) to -0.3% (12th).
• The Jaguars' defense rose from 14th to 8th in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (43.9% to 42.1%).
• The Jets' defense fell from 6th to 14th in success rate allowed over the last three weeks (41.4% to 44.0%).
• The Seahawks' defense rose from 14th to 3rd in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (+0.006 to -0.080).
• The Packers' defense fell from 15th to 21st in EPA/dropback allowed over the last three weeks (+0.011 to +0.071).
• The Colts' defense rose from 14th to 3rd in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.076 to -0.120).
• The Cardinals' defense fell from 11th to 22nd in EPA/rush allowed over the last three weeks (-0.090 to -0.026).
• The Eagles' defense rose from 15th to 5th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (15.5% to 13.3%).
• The Rams' defense fell from 3rd to 9th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last three weeks (12.1% to 14.0%).
• The Eagles' defense rose from 16th to 6th in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (15.4% to 16.7%).
• The Steelers' defense fell from 5th to 14th in sack + QB hit rate over the last three weeks (17.2% to 16.1%).
• The Dolphins' defense rose from 25th to 14th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (42.2% to 38.4%).
• The Bills' defense fell from 14th to 24th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed over the last three weeks (37.9% to 41.7%).

EPA/play ranks after Week 15, all 32 teams

Hot and cold: the last five games

• Over its last five games the Dolphins' offense ranks 9th in EPA/play (+0.066), 10 spots above its season rank (19th).
• Over its last five games the Panthers' offense ranks 16th in EPA/play (+0.000), 9 spots above its season rank (25th).
• Over its last five games the Colts' offense ranks 21st in EPA/play (-0.042), 15 spots below its season rank (6th).
• Over its last five games the Chiefs' offense ranks 18th in EPA/play (-0.017), 10 spots below its season rank (8th).
• Over its last five games the Bengals' defense ranks 21st in EPA/play allowed (+0.056), 11 spots above its season rank (32nd).
• Over its last five games the Dolphins' defense ranks 12th in EPA/play allowed (-0.075), 10 spots above its season rank (22nd).
• Over its last five games the Buccaneers' defense ranks 27th in EPA/play allowed (+0.112), 10 spots below its season rank (17th).
• Over its last five games the Lions' defense ranks 22nd in EPA/play allowed (+0.064), 8 spots below its season rank (14th).

Active streaks

• The Texans' defense has held opponents below the league average in EPA/play in 12 straight games (since Week 3).
• The Browns' defense has beaten the league average in sack + QB hit rate in 8 straight games (since Week 7).
• The Ravens' defense has held opponents below the league average in success rate in 8 straight games (since Week 8).
• The Packers' offense has beaten the league average in 3rd-down conversion rate in 8 straight games (since Week 8).
• The Browns' defense has held opponents below the league average in success rate in 6 straight games (since Week 10).
• The Broncos' defense has held opponents below the league average in success rate in 6 straight games (since Week 9).
• The Seahawks' defense has held opponents below the league average in success rate in 6 straight games (since Week 10).
• The 49ers' offense has beaten the league average in EPA/dropback in 6 straight games (since Week 9).
• Drake Maye has had positive EPA per play in 13 straight games (since Week 2).
• Trey McBride has had 50+ receiving yards in 9 straight games (since Week 6).
• Harold Fannin Jr. has had a 20%+ target share in 8 straight games (since Week 7).
• Jared Goff has had 250+ passing yards in 7 straight games (since Week 9).
• Dak Prescott has had 250+ passing yards in 6 straight games (since Week 9).
• Drake London has had a 25%+ target share in 6 straight games (since Week 4).
• Wan'Dale Robinson has had a 25%+ target share in 6 straight games (since Week 9).
• Jordan Love has had positive EPA per play in 5 straight games (since Week 11).

Player movers

• Trevor Lawrence rose from 27th to 16th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (-0.030 to +0.072).
• Aaron Rodgers rose from 26th to 19th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.011 to +0.042).
• Jayden Daniels fell from 20th to 27th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.048 to -0.003).
• Lamar Jackson fell from 12th to 18th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play over the last three weeks (+0.135 to +0.044).
• Blake Corum rose from 18th to 1st among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.022 to +0.158).
• D'Andre Swift rose from 16th to 8th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.016 to +0.057).
• Travis Etienne fell from 13th to 26th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (+0.025 to -0.047).
• Quinshon Judkins fell from 25th to 38th among qualified running backs in EPA/rush over the last three weeks (-0.056 to -0.115).
• Jameson Williams rose from 58th to 44th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (15.7% to 18.9%).
• Michael Wilson rose from 47th to 36th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (17.5% to 20.0%).
• Troy Franklin fell from 27th to 40th among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (22.1% to 19.7%).
• Romeo Doubs fell from 32nd to 43rd among qualified wide receivers in target share over the last three weeks (21.4% to 19.0%).
• Gunnar Helm rose from 36th to 31st among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (10.6% to 11.5%).
• Harold Fannin Jr. rose from 8th to 4th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (19.2% to 22.0%).
• Jake Ferguson fell from 6th to 16th among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (19.4% to 18.2%).
• Jonnu Smith fell from 28th to 32nd among qualified tight ends in target share over the last three weeks (12.8% to 11.4%).