Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Boston College Eagles Final — September 11, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
RUTGRest & travelBC
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Rutgers visited Boston College on Friday, September 11 at 7:30 PM ET.
Boston College closed as a 3-point favorite at home against Rutgers. The spread opened at Boston College -3.5. The total closed at 53.5, down from 54 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Rutgers +125, Boston College -150) prices Rutgers at 43% and Boston College at 57%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 21, Boston College Eagles 28
Boston College Eagles won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Boston College Eagles -3): Boston College Eagles covered.
- Combined score 49 vs the closing total of 53.5: Under.
- Boston College Eagles closed at -150 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Rutgers Scarlet Knights 43%, Boston College Eagles 57%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 2:27 — Boston College Eagles ball, 1st & 10 at BC 25Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass intercepted by #2 M.Walker at BC 26 QB hurried by #8 S.Kromah #2 M.Walker return 8 yards to the BC 18 (#23 E.Dickens)Rutgers Scarlet Knights 19% → 37% (+17 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 0:29 — Rutgers Scarlet Knights ball, 4th & 1 at BC 9No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Surace rush middle for 2 yards loss to the BC 11 (#1 A.Palano), TURNOVER ON DOWNSBoston College Eagles 68% → 80% (+12 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:27 — Rutgers Scarlet Knights ball, 4th & 3 at BC 21No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Surace pass intercepted by #1 A.Palano at BC 10 QB hurried by #2 K.Price #1 A.Palano return 6 yards to the BC 16 (#3 A.Raymond), out of b…Boston College Eagles 74% → 83% (+9 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 7:06 — Boston College Eagles ball, 3rd & 6 at BC 22No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete deep right to #3 D.Pough caught at BC 50, for 78 yards to the RU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:06, 1ST DOWN #10 M.McKenzi…Boston College Eagles 83% → 97% (+13 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:46 — Rutgers Scarlet Knights ball, 1st & 10 at BC 47No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Surace pass intercepted by #1 A.Palano at BC 35, End Of PlayBoston College Eagles 87% → 96% (+9 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Rutgers Scarlet Knights would win 51% of the time (Boston College Eagles 49%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Rutgers | Points added | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3 | Passingdropbacks | -5.7 |
| +1.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.3 |
| +6.0 | Explosive plays3 plays · 2 plays | +10.8 |
| -16.9 | Turnovers4 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -14.0 |
| -0.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.9 |
| -2.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.1 |
| -1.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 2 of 3 | +1.4 |
| -13.0 | All plays | -9.9 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 5.4 points to Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Boston College Eagles closed as the market favourite at 57% and won.
The line moved toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Rutgers +3.5 (-109)
Rutgers +3 (-110)
Boston College -182 61%
Boston College -150 57%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Success by situation
| Situation | Rutgers | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateRutgers offense vs Boston College defense | 37.1%64th | 38.3%44th |
| Early-down success rateBoston College offense vs Rutgers defense | 50.0%86th | 46.9%18th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRutgers offense vs Boston College defense | 25.0%74th | 36.4%41st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBoston College offense vs Rutgers defense | 36.4%41st | 30.8%66th |
| Explosive play rateRutgers offense vs Boston College defense | 4.3%69th | 6.8%46th |
| Explosive play rateBoston College offense vs Rutgers defense | 4.8%31st | 3.0%75th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 60.9%16th-highest | 50.0%49th-highest |
On 3rd down Rutgers converts 25.0% (74th) against a Boston College defense allowing 36.4% (41st).
On 3rd down Boston College converts 30.8% (66th) against a Rutgers defense allowing 36.4% (41st).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 94 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Rutgers won 1 and Boston College 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2022 | Rutgers 22, Boston College 21 Rutgers won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights team stats
- Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Oct 31)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- Indiana Hoosiers 47, Rutgers Scarlet Knights 15 (Oct 3)
Boston College Eagles
- Boston College Eagles team stats
- Boston College Eagles at Duke Blue Devils (Oct 31)
- Boston College Eagles 49, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 27 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
Dig deeper
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