Indiana Hoosiers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Final — October 3, 2026
IUOffense2026 regular season to dateRUTG
IUDefenseRUTGIULast 10 gamesRUTGRest & travelrest and travel
IURest & travelRUTGAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Indiana (3-0) visited Rutgers (0-3) on Saturday, October 3 at 8:00 PM ET.
Indiana has the 11th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 107th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Rutgers has the 100th-ranked offense and the 91st-ranked defense. When Indiana has the ball, a 11th-ranked offense (+0.289 EPA per play) meets a 91st-ranked defense (+0.082 allowed); when Rutgers has it, a 100th-ranked offense (−0.104) meets a 107th-ranked defense (+0.151 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Indiana offense is at 46.2% (38th) and the Rutgers offense at 44.2% (55th). Indiana scores 39.7 points per game (11th) and allows 13.0 (7th); Rutgers scores 25.7 (70th) and allows 35.7 (116th).
Indiana closed as a 24.5-point road favorite, with Rutgers getting the points at home. The spread opened at Indiana -23.5. The total closed at 56.5, up from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Indiana -3500, Rutgers +1220) prices Indiana at 93% and Rutgers at 7%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Indiana Hoosiers 47, Rutgers Scarlet Knights 15
Indiana Hoosiers won by 32.
- Against the closing spread (Rutgers Scarlet Knights +24.5): Indiana Hoosiers covered.
- Combined score 62 vs the closing total of 56.5: Over.
- Indiana Hoosiers closed at -3500 on the moneyline (a 93% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Indiana Hoosiers 93%, Rutgers Scarlet Knights 7%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Indiana Hoosiers would win >99% of the time (Rutgers Scarlet Knights <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Indiana Hoosiers. Here is where that came from.
| Indiana | Points added | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| +5.6 | Passingdropbacks | -8.0 |
| -1.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -11.7 |
| +14.5 | Explosive plays9 plays · 4 plays | +19.5 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.3 |
| +0.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.3 |
| +2.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 6 of 8 · 1 of 1 | +2.5 |
| +22.5 | All plays | -0.4 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 13.6 points to Indiana Hoosiers. The final margin was 32.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Indiana Hoosiers closed as the market favourite at 93% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Indiana -23.5 (-113)
Indiana -24.5 (-110)
Rutgers +1200 7%
Rutgers +1220 7%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts80
- Completion %70.0%36th
- Passing yards850115th
- Yards per attempt10.68th
- TD–INT11–0
- Rushing yards39816th
- Season line71 carries, 398 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards37019th
- Season line19 catches, 370 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles3066th
- Attempts82
- Completion %56.1%193rd
- Passing yards708162nd
- Yards per attempt8.658th
- TD–INT7–5
- Rushing yards4388th
- Season line78 carries, 438 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards5504th
- Season line29 catches, 550 yds, 7 TD
- Tackles20325th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Indiana | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateIndiana offense vs Rutgers defense | 40.3%58th | 38.8%62nd |
| Early-down success rateRutgers offense vs Indiana defense | 45.1%119th | 43.2%34th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateIndiana offense vs Rutgers defense | 51.6%15th | 39.4%67th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRutgers offense vs Indiana defense | 44.1%97th | 38.7%75th |
| Explosive play rateIndiana offense vs Rutgers defense | 11.2%3rd | 6.5%63rd |
| Explosive play rateRutgers offense vs Indiana defense | 6.2%51st | 6.6%81st |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 42.9%112th-highest | 52.2%59th-highest |
On 3rd down Indiana converts 51.6% (15th) against a Rutgers defense allowing 39.4% (67th).
On 3rd down Rutgers converts 38.7% (75th) against a Indiana defense allowing 44.1% (97th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Indiana | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Curt Cignetti | Greg Schiano |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 7th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 31–2 | 100–111 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 50–6 | 100–111 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike Shanahan | Kirk Ciarrocca |
| Defensive coordinator | Bryant Haines | Travis Johansen |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Indiana won 0 and Rutgers 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2023 | Rutgers 31, Indiana 14 Rutgers won | ||
| Oct 22, 2022 | Indiana 17, Rutgers 24 Rutgers won | ||
| Nov 13, 2021 | Rutgers 38, Indiana 3 Rutgers won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Indiana Hoosiers
- Indiana Hoosiers team stats
- Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers (Oct 31)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
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- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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