Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Troy Trojans Final — October 6, 2026
USMOffense2026 regular season to dateTROY
USMDefenseTROYUSMLast 10 gamesTROYRest & travelrest and travel
USMRest & travelTROYAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Southern Miss (0-3) visited Troy (1-2) on Tuesday, October 6 at 8:00 PM ET.
Southern Miss has the 117th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 103rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Troy has the 124th-ranked offense and the 71st-ranked defense. When Southern Miss has the ball, a 117th-ranked offense (−0.151 EPA per play) meets a 71st-ranked defense (+0.016 allowed); when Troy has it, a 124th-ranked offense (−0.192) meets a 103rd-ranked defense (+0.117 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Southern Miss offense is at 41.1% (91st) and the Troy offense at 39.6% (114th). Southern Miss scores 16.3 points per game (120th) and allows 38.3 (126th); Troy scores 17.0 (113th) and allows 23.0 (48th).
Troy closed as a 9.5-point favorite at home against Southern Miss. The spread opened at Troy -8.5. The total closed at 51.5, up from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Southern Miss +310, Troy -400) prices Southern Miss at 23% and Troy at 77%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 34, Troy Trojans 55
Troy Trojans won by 21.
- Against the closing spread (Troy Trojans -9.5): Troy Trojans covered.
- Combined score 89 vs the closing total of 51.5: Over.
- Troy Trojans closed at -400 on the moneyline (a 77% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Troy Trojans.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 23%, Troy Trojans 77%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Troy Trojans would win 99% of the time (Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Troy Trojans. Here is where that came from.
| Southern Miss | Points added | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| +16.4 | Passingdropbacks | +1.9 |
| +1.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | +7.6 |
| +29.7 | Explosive plays9 plays · 6 plays | +16.6 |
| -9.0 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -0.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -6.4 |
| -0.9 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.0 |
| +0.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 6 · 6 of 8 | +14.7 |
| +37.0 | All plays | +34.4 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 14.5 points to Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles. The final margin was 21.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Troy Trojans closed as the market favourite at 77% and won.
The line moved toward Troy Trojans before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Southern Miss +8.5 (-110)
Southern Miss +9.5 (-105)
Troy -368 75%
Troy -400 77%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts75
- Completion %60.0%154th
- Passing yards419249th
- Yards per attempt5.6240th
- TD–INT2–4
- Rushing yards31949th
- Season line72 carries, 319 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards30250th
- Season line20 catches, 302 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles2983rd
- Attempts132
- Completion %52.3%239th
- Passing yards822162nd
- Yards per attempt6.2206th
- TD–INT7–4
- Rushing yards25982nd
- Season line54 carries, 259 yds
- Receiving yards27074th
- Season line12 catches, 270 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles27129th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 255 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 4, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Southern Miss | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSouthern Miss offense vs Troy defense | 39.3%77th | 41.2%93rd |
| Early-down success rateTroy offense vs Southern Miss defense | 41.0%90th | 37.7%90th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSouthern Miss offense vs Troy defense | 22.6%133rd | 32.4%19th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTroy offense vs Southern Miss defense | 44.4%105th | 37.8%85th |
| Explosive play rateSouthern Miss offense vs Troy defense | 6.6%77th | 6.3%50th |
| Explosive play rateTroy offense vs Southern Miss defense | 8.1%101st | 7.4%52nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 61.6%8th-highest | 51.2%66th-highest |
On 3rd down Southern Miss converts 22.6% (133rd) against a Troy defense allowing 32.4% (19th).
On 3rd down Troy converts 37.8% (85th) against a Southern Miss defense allowing 44.4% (105th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Southern Miss | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Blake Anderson | Gerad Parker |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 1–4 | 14–16 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 75–58 | 14–22 |
| Offensive coordinator | Kyle Cefalo | Adam Austin |
| Defensive coordinator | Joe Bolden | Dontae Wright |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Southern Miss won 0 and Troy 5.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | Troy 28, Southern Miss 18 Troy won | ||
| Nov 30, 2024 | Southern Miss 20, Troy 52 Troy won | ||
| Nov 25, 2023 | Troy 35, Southern Miss 17 Troy won | ||
| Oct 8, 2022 | Southern Miss 10, Troy 27 Troy won | ||
| Sep 18, 2021 | Troy 21, Southern Miss 9 Troy won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
- Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at UL Monroe Warhawks (Oct 31)
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 31, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 35 (Oct 24)
- Arkansas State Red Wolves 23, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 13 (Oct 17)
Troy Trojans
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