UL Monroe Warhawks vs Troy Trojans Final — October 24, 2026
ULMOffense2026 regular season to dateTROY
ULMDefenseTROYULMRecent formTROYULMHome and roadseason to dateTROYULMLast 10 gamesTROYRest & travelrest and travel
ULMRest & travelTROYAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
UL Monroe (0-5) visited Troy (2-3) on Saturday, October 24 at 4:00 PM ET.
UL Monroe has the 100th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 127th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Troy has the 87th-ranked offense and the 118th-ranked defense. When UL Monroe has the ball, a 100th-ranked offense (−0.019 EPA per play) meets a 118th-ranked defense (+0.200 allowed); when Troy has it, a 87th-ranked offense (+0.021) meets a 127th-ranked defense (+0.239 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the UL Monroe offense is at 42.4% (116th) and the Troy offense at 44.4% (93rd). UL Monroe scores 17.0 points per game (121st) and allows 41.8 (136th); Troy scores 22.4 (94th) and allows 27.2 (78th).
UL Monroe is 0-6 and 1-5 against the spread; its last game was a 24-0 loss to Louisiana Tech. Troy is 3-3 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 33-6 loss to Louisiana.
Troy closed as a 13.5-point favorite at home against UL Monroe. The spread opened at Troy -17.5. The total closed 50.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UL Monroe +450, Troy -625) prices UL Monroe at 17% and Troy at 83%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UL Monroe Warhawks 21, Troy Trojans 14
UL Monroe Warhawks won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Troy Trojans -13.5): UL Monroe Warhawks covered.
- Combined score 35 vs the closing total of 50.5: Under.
- UL Monroe Warhawks closed at +450 on the moneyline (a 17% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 6 points toward UL Monroe Warhawks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UL Monroe Warhawks 17%, Troy Trojans 83%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 9:07 — Troy Trojans ball, 3rd & 5 at ULM 43No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass complete deep right to #15 T.Lott caught at ULM12, for 32 yards to the ULM11 (#5 Z.Jackson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNTroy Trojans 87% → 94% (+6 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:36 — UL Monroe Warhawks ball, 3rd & 1 at ULM 36No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Z.Palmer-Smith rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ULM50 (#3 D.Nelson; #2 B.Steele), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TROY Personal Foul (#20 K.Campbell)…UL Monroe Warhawks 8% → 18% (+10 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:24 — UL Monroe Warhawks ball, 1st & 10 at TROY 35No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short right to #13 P.Fulghum caught at TROY20, for 19 yards to the TROY16 (#6 J.Powe), 1ST DOWNUL Monroe Warhawks 18% → 57% (+39 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:15 — UL Monroe Warhawks ball, 1st & 10 at TROY 16No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short right to #83 D.Gilliam caught at TROY00, for 16 yards to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:15, 1ST DOWN #10 A.Ar…Troy Trojans 9% → 41% (+33 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Troy Trojans ball, 3rd & 24 at TROY 11Billy Pullen 0 Yd Fumble ReturnUL Monroe Warhawks 68% → 100% (+32 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
UL Monroe Warhawks won after falling as low as 1% (Q4 6:16).
Game DNA
| UL Monroe | Points added | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| -18.1 | Passingdropbacks | -11.0 |
| -3.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.0 |
| +0.0 | Explosive plays0 plays · 1 plays | +6.2 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -0.1 |
| +3.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.8 |
| +1.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.2 |
| +10.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 2 of 2 | +2.8 |
| -6.2 | All plays | -3.0 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 8.2 points to UL Monroe Warhawks. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Troy Trojans closed as the market favourite at 83% and lost.
The line moved toward UL Monroe Warhawks before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
UL Monroe +17.5 (-110)
UL Monroe +13.5 (-110)
Troy -1100 88%
Troy -625 83%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts131
- Completion %62.6%116th
- Passing yards967187th
- Yards per attempt7.4125th
- TD–INT5–3
- Rushing yards230235th
- Season line40 carries, 230 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards265221st
- Season line32 catches, 265 yds
- Tackles5158th
- Attempts133
- Completion %54.9%
- Passing yards837
- Yards per attempt6.3
- TD–INT8–4
- Rushing yards359109th
- Season line76 carries, 359 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards282191st
- Season line13 catches, 282 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles40191st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | UL Monroe | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateUL Monroe offense vs Troy defense | 41.8%89th | 45.7%102nd |
| Early-down success rateTroy offense vs UL Monroe defense | 47.9%126th | 42.5%82nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUL Monroe offense vs Troy defense | 25.5%135th | 36.7%43rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTroy offense vs UL Monroe defense | 51.6%132nd | 40.6%67th |
| Explosive play rateUL Monroe offense vs Troy defense | 4.1%131st | 7.0%79th |
| Explosive play rateTroy offense vs UL Monroe defense | 8.6%120th | 7.1%58th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 50.6%74th-highest | 45.4%110th-highest |
On 3rd down UL Monroe converts 25.5% (135th) against a Troy defense allowing 36.7% (43rd).
On 3rd down Troy converts 40.6% (67th) against a UL Monroe defense allowing 51.6% (132nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | UL Monroe | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Bryant Vincent | Gerad Parker |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 8–22 | 15–17 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 15–28 | 15–23 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jesse Montalto | Adam Austin |
| Defensive coordinator | Troy Reffett | Dontae Wright |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: UL Monroe won 2 and Troy 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Troy 37, UL Monroe 14 Troy won | ||
| Sep 28, 2024 | UL Monroe 13, Troy 9 UL Monroe won | ||
| Nov 11, 2023 | Troy 45, UL Monroe 14 Troy won | ||
| Nov 19, 2022 | UL Monroe 16, Troy 34 Troy won | ||
| Sep 25, 2021 | Troy 16, UL Monroe 29 UL Monroe won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
UL Monroe Warhawks
- UL Monroe Warhawks team stats
- Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at UL Monroe Warhawks (Oct 31)
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 24, UL Monroe Warhawks 0 (Oct 17)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 35, South Alabama Jaguars 52 (Oct 3)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 13, Mississippi State Bulldogs 62 (Sep 5)
Troy Trojans
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
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- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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