Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles Final — October 17, 2026
ARSTOffense2026 regular season to dateUSM
ARSTDefenseUSMARSTRecent formUSMARSTHome and roadseason to dateUSMARSTLast 10 gamesUSMRest & travelrest and travel
ARSTRest & travelUSMAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Arkansas State (1-4) visited Southern Miss (0-4) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:00 PM ET.
Arkansas State has the 40th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 133rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Southern Miss has the 38th-ranked offense and the 128th-ranked defense. When Arkansas State has the ball, a 40th-ranked offense (+0.141 EPA per play) meets a 128th-ranked defense (+0.273 allowed); when Southern Miss has it, a 38th-ranked offense (+0.145) meets a 133rd-ranked defense (+0.287 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Arkansas State offense is at 50.9% (25th) and the Southern Miss offense at 47.3% (63rd). Arkansas State scores 23.4 points per game (79th) and allows 33.2 (113th); Southern Miss scores 20.8 (101st) and allows 42.5 (134th).
Arkansas State is 2-4 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 56-49 loss to South Alabama. Southern Miss is 1-4 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 55-34 loss to Troy.
Arkansas State closed as a 5.5-point road favorite, with Southern Miss getting the points at home. The spread opened at Arkansas State -7.5. The total closed at 61.5, up from 57.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Arkansas State -221, Southern Miss +183) prices Arkansas State at 66% and Southern Miss at 34%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Arkansas State Red Wolves 23, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 13
Arkansas State Red Wolves won by 10.
- Against the closing spread (Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +5.5): Arkansas State Red Wolves covered.
- Combined score 36 vs the closing total of 61.5: Under.
- Arkansas State Red Wolves closed at -221 on the moneyline (a 66% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Arkansas State Red Wolves 66%, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 34%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 6:44 — Arkansas State Red Wolves ball, 4th & 29 at ARST 38Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 12 yards gain to the ASU50 (#11 A.Wilson), 1ST DOWNArkansas State Red Wolves 64% → 75% (+10 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:31 — Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ball, 3rd & 5 at USM 46Shotgun #18 L.Lyddy pass intercepted by #0 D.Henderson at ASU49, End Of PlayArkansas State Red Wolves 75% → 81% (+7 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 10:48 — Arkansas State Red Wolves ball, 3rd & 2 at USM 2Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:48 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Arkansas State Red Wolves 85% → 93% (+7 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:29 — Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ball, 1st & 10 at 50Shotgun #6 J.Wilder rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ASU46 (#6 A.McGhee; #9 K.Moore)Arkansas State Red Wolves 87% → 93% (+6 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 6:56 — Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ball, 1st & 10 at ARST 16Preston Kilgore 16 Yd pass from Landry Lyddy (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 10% → 21% (+10 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Arkansas State | Points added | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| -9.6 | Passingdropbacks | -2.3 |
| -0.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.3 |
| +3.5 | Explosive plays3 plays · 4 plays | +8.0 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -1.1 |
| +1.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.2 |
| +3.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -3.1 |
| +1.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 2 of 3 | +4.2 |
| +0.1 | All plays | -0.8 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 7.3 points to Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles. The final margin was 10.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Arkansas State Red Wolves closed as the market favourite at 66% and won.
The line moved toward Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Arkansas State -7.5 (-110)
Arkansas State -5.5 (-110)
Southern Miss +222 30%
Southern Miss +183 34%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts176
- Completion %68.8%31st
- Passing yards1,46147th
- Yards per attempt8.366th
- TD–INT9–6
- Rushing yards239179th
- Season line46 carries, 239 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards40840th
- Season line29 catches, 408 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles594th
- Attempts89
- Completion %61.8%
- Passing yards741
- Yards per attempt8.3
- TD–INT6–1
- Rushing yards34884th
- Season line78 carries, 348 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards40443rd
- Season line28 catches, 404 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles4370th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Arkansas State | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateArkansas State offense vs Southern Miss defense | 49.1%15th | 46.4%109th |
| Early-down success rateSouthern Miss offense vs Arkansas State defense | 48.4%123rd | 45.0%47th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArkansas State offense vs Southern Miss defense | 48.2%24th | 48.0%116th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSouthern Miss offense vs Arkansas State defense | 47.3%114th | 22.5%135th |
| Explosive play rateArkansas State offense vs Southern Miss defense | 8.9%21st | 7.9%102nd |
| Explosive play rateSouthern Miss offense vs Arkansas State defense | 8.3%109th | 8.8%23rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 56.4%23rd-highest | 61.6%6th-highest |
On 3rd down Arkansas State converts 48.2% (24th) against a Southern Miss defense allowing 48.0% (116th).
On 3rd down Southern Miss converts 22.5% (135th) against a Arkansas State defense allowing 47.3% (114th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Arkansas State | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Butch Jones | Blake Anderson |
| Tenureat this school | 6th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 28–41 | 1–5 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 112–95 | 75–59 |
| Offensive coordinator | Garrett Altman | Kyle Cefalo |
| Defensive coordinator | Griffin McCarley | Joe Bolden |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Arkansas State won 2 and Southern Miss 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Southern Miss 27, Arkansas State 21 Southern Miss won | ||
| Oct 19, 2024 | Arkansas State 44, Southern Miss 28 Arkansas State won | ||
| Sep 23, 2023 | Southern Miss 37, Arkansas State 44 Arkansas State won | ||
| Oct 15, 2022 | Arkansas State 19, Southern Miss 20 Southern Miss won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Arkansas State Red Wolves team stats
- Georgia State Panthers 32, Arkansas State Red Wolves 38 (Oct 24)
- South Alabama Jaguars 56, Arkansas State Red Wolves 49 (Oct 8)
- Arkansas State Red Wolves 20, Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 23 (Oct 3)
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
- Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at UL Monroe Warhawks (Oct 31)
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 31, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 35 (Oct 24)
- Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 34, Troy Trojans 55 (Oct 6)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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