Troy Trojans vs Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Final — October 17, 2026
TROYOffense2026 regular season to dateUL
TROYDefenseULTROYRecent formULTROYHome and roadseason to dateULTROYLast 10 gamesULRest & travelrest and travel
TROYRest & travelULAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Troy (2-2) visited Louisiana (3-2) on Saturday, October 17 at 5:00 PM ET.
Troy has the 69th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 117th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Louisiana has the 71st-ranked offense and the 35th-ranked defense. When Troy has the ball, a 69th-ranked offense (+0.065 EPA per play) meets a 35th-ranked defense (−0.033 allowed); when Louisiana has it, a 71st-ranked offense (+0.064) meets a 117th-ranked defense (+0.217 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Troy offense is at 45.2% (86th) and the Louisiana offense at 50.0% (32nd). Troy scores 26.5 points per game (67th) and allows 25.8 (68th); Louisiana scores 27.8 (57th) and allows 24.4 (58th).
Troy is 3-2 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 55-34 win over Southern Miss. Louisiana is 4-2 and 5-1 against the spread; its last game was a 32-31 loss to Louisiana Tech.
Louisiana closed as a 3-point favorite at home against Troy. The spread opened at Louisiana -4.5. The total closed at 49.5, up from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Troy +125, Louisiana -152) prices Troy at 42% and Louisiana at 58%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Troy Trojans 6, Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 33
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns won by 27.
- Against the closing spread (Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -3): Louisiana Ragin Cajuns covered.
- Combined score 39 vs the closing total of 49.5: Under.
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns closed at -152 on the moneyline (a 58% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 6 points toward Troy Trojans.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Troy Trojans 42%, Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 58%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 13:37 — Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ball, 4th & 4 at UL 42#49 M.Golding punt 50 yards to the Troy08 muffed by #4 N.White at Troy08 recovered by UL #37 H.Kidder at Troy08, End Of PlayLouisiana Ragin Cajuns 56% → 67% (+12 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:53 — Troy Trojans ball, 4th & 6 at UL 34No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass incomplete short right to #4 N.White thrown to UL25 broken up by #11 B.Gordon Jr., TURNOVER ON DOWNSLouisiana Ragin Cajuns 70% → 76% (+6 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 6:01 — Troy Trojans ball, 4th & 12 at UL 24#33 E.Head field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls), clock 06:01Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 72% → 77% (+5 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 2:21 — Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ball, 2nd & 8 at TROY 37No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush left for 37 yards gain to the Troy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:21, 1ST DOWN rush attempt failedLouisiana Ragin Cajuns 81% → 87% (+6 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Troy | Points added | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| -14.8 | Passingdropbacks | -6.0 |
| +1.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.5 |
| +6.5 | Explosive plays3 plays · 2 plays | +6.5 |
| -5.2 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -4.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +6.2 |
| -2.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.7 |
| -0.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 1 · 3 of 3 | +6.4 |
| -19.7 | All plays | +9.9 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 11.1 points to Louisiana Ragin Cajuns. The final margin was 27.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns closed as the market favourite at 58% and won.
The line moved toward Troy Trojans before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Troy +4.5 (-110)
Troy +3 (-110)
Louisiana -192 63%
Louisiana -152 58%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts119
- Completion %55.5%
- Passing yards792
- Yards per attempt6.7
- TD–INT8–4
- Rushing yards33788th
- Season line69 carries, 337 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards270154th
- Season line12 catches, 270 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles35188th
- Attempts106
- Completion %71.7%
- Passing yards873
- Yards per attempt8.2
- TD–INT3–1
- Rushing yards39860th
- Season line82 carries, 398 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards213249th
- Season line9 catches, 213 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles40109th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Troy | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTroy offense vs Louisiana defense | 43.0%73rd | 45.9%103rd |
| Early-down success rateLouisiana offense vs Troy defense | 47.9%119th | 45.0%48th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTroy offense vs Louisiana defense | 42.4%60th | 41.7%81st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLouisiana offense vs Troy defense | 30.4%11th | 36.8%91st |
| Explosive play rateTroy offense vs Louisiana defense | 7.5%49th | 5.1%18th |
| Explosive play rateLouisiana offense vs Troy defense | 8.3%112th | 6.0%91st |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 45.1%103rd-highest | 38.5%130th-highest |
On 3rd down Troy converts 42.4% (60th) against a Louisiana defense allowing 41.7% (81st).
On 3rd down Louisiana converts 36.8% (91st) against a Troy defense allowing 30.4% (11th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Troy | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Gerad Parker | Michael Desormeaux |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 15–16 | 33–27 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 15–22 | 33–27 |
| Offensive coordinator | Adam Austin | Tim Leger |
| Defensive coordinator | Dontae Wright | Jim Salgado |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Troy won 3 and Louisiana 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | Louisiana 23, Troy 35 Troy won | ||
| Nov 23, 2024 | Troy 30, Louisiana 51 Louisiana won | ||
| Nov 18, 2023 | Louisiana 24, Troy 31 Troy won | ||
| Nov 5, 2022 | Troy 23, Louisiana 17 Troy won | ||
| Nov 13, 2021 | Louisiana 35, Troy 21 Louisiana won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Troy Trojans
- Troy Trojans team stats
- Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes (Oct 29)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 21, Troy Trojans 14 (Oct 24)
- Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 34, Troy Trojans 55 (Oct 6)
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns team stats
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 31, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 35 (Oct 24)
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 31, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 32 (Oct 10)
- Arkansas State Red Wolves 20, Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 23 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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