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NHL · November 4, 2026

Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Final — November 4, 2026

Ottawa Senators logo
Ottawa Senators
9-6-1
2
Goalie Samuel Ersson Confirmed
FINAL
Buffalo Sabres logo
Buffalo Sabres
7-4-3
1
Goalie Colten Ellis Expected
Wednesday, November 4 · 7:40 PM ET
OTTStarting goaliesBUF
This season
4
Starts
5
.866
Sv%
.880
.789
HDSv%
.722
−4.3
GSAx
−0.2
Last season
29
Starts
14
.870
Sv%
.903
.853
HDSv%
.797
−14.9
GSAx
+0.8
OTTOffense2026-27 regular season to dateBUF
16th3.25
GF/G
3.0718th
30th4.74
PP GF/60
6.8822nd
OTTDefenseBUF
15th3.19
GA/G
3.5026th
20th9.93
PK GA/60
13.6829th
OTTTeamBUF
14th59.4%
Pts%
60.7%11th
20th49.4%
xGF%
52.4%11th
19th48.9%
CF%
52.3%9th
17th49.0%
HDCF%
60.9%5th
OTT5-on-5BUF
23rd2.34
xGF/60
2.719th
9th2.40
xGA/60
2.4615th
9th11.1%
Sh%
9.8%14th
5th91.6%
Sv%
89.6%22nd
19th111.9
CF/60 (both)
111.918th
15th−0.03
GAx/G
−0.2722nd
12th+0.11
GSAx/G
−0.1822nd
11th11.4%
Sh%
10.7%18th
13th89.5%
Sv%
87.5%29th
OTTSpecial teamsBUF
18th7.71
PP xG/60
8.8711th
20th72.2
PP FF/60
77.314th
2nd6.3
PP min/G
5.019th
22nd8.43
PK xGA/60
9.4627th
25th5.7
PK min/G
5.016th
OTTRecent formBUF
Wvs NYR 7-4L@ VGK 1-4OTL@ LAK 5-6W@ SJS 5-1L@ ANA 3-6
Resultsoldest to newest
Lvs PHI 1-3OTL@ WSH 3-4W@ SJS 2-0W@ ANA 7-6W@ LAK 3-2
below 50%below 50%above 50%above 50%above 50%below 50%below 50%above 50%above 50%above 50%
Game by game
below 50%above 50%below 50%below 50%below 50%above 50%below 50%above 50%above 50%below 50%
9-6-1
Record
7-4-3
2-2-1
Last 5
3-1-1
4-5-1
Last 10
5-2-3
7-9
Over–under
—
OTTHome and roadseason to dateBUF
5-2-0
Home record
3-3-0
4-4-1
Road record
4-1-3
4-3
Home O/U
—
3-6
Road O/U
—
Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)
Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
OTTRest & travelBUF
2 days
Days of rest
3 days
2,183 mi3,513 km · straight-line from previous game (estimate)
Travel to the game
Home
+3 hclock change vs home
Time-zone change
Home
OTTKey injuriesBUF
Linus Ullmark GIRWilliam Eklund LWIR
Players out or limited
Conor Timmins DIR
About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Key players only. Injury report as of November 4, 10:10 a.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Senators (9-6-1) visited the Sabres (7-4-3) on Wednesday, November 4 at 7:40 PM ET.

The Senators score 3.25 goals per game (16th of 32) and allow 3.19 (15th). The Sabres score 3.07 goals per game (18th of 32) and allow 3.50 (26th). The Senators earn 59.4% of available standings points (14th) and the Sabres 60.7% (11th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Senators 49.4% (20th), Sabres 52.4% (11th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Senators 48.9% (19th), Sabres 52.3% (9th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Senators 49.0% (17th), Sabres 60.9% (5th).

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 1

Ottawa Senators won by 1.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playOttawa Senators ML +1151uWIN +1.15u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck line
OpenSabres -1.5 (+162)
Senators +1.5 (-199)
Close—
Total
Open6.5 (o -120 / u -100)
Close—
Moneyline
OpenSenators +119 44%
Sabres -144 56%
Close—

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score
Spread
Total
Win %
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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 26 times since 2018-19: the Senators won 12 and the Sabres 14.

DateScoreLineTotal
Apr 2, 2026Sabres 1, Senators 4
Senators won

Dec 23, 2025Sabres 3, Senators 2 OT
Sabres won		Senators -167
underdog won		6.5
under
Oct 15, 2025Senators 4, Sabres 8
Sabres won
6.5
over
Apr 1, 2025Sabres 5, Senators 2
Sabres won		Senators -198
underdog won		6.5
over
Mar 25, 2025Senators 2, Sabres 3
Sabres won		Senators -162
underdog won		6
under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams

Ottawa Senators

Buffalo Sabres

Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.

Follow the market every day

See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.

Odds boardTracked results