Buffalo Sabres vs Anaheim Ducks Final — October 29, 2026
BUFStarting goaliesANA
BUFOffense2026-27 regular season to dateANABUFDefenseANABUFTeamANABUF5-on-5ANABUFSpecial teamsANABUFRecent formANABUFHome and roadseason to dateANAInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
BUFRest & travelANABUFKey injuriesANAAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 29, 9:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Sabres (5-4-3) visited the Ducks (5-6-1) on Thursday, October 29 at 10:10 PM ET.
The Sabres score 2.75 goals per game (24th of 32) and allow 3.42 (26th). The Ducks score 3.08 goals per game (16th of 32) and allow 3.58 (29th). The Sabres earn 54.2% of available standings points (17th) and the Ducks 45.8% (24th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Sabres 52.6% (12th), Ducks 45.5% (26th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Sabres 53.0% (9th), Ducks 48.3% (18th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Sabres 61.0% (6th), Ducks 41.9% (25th).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sabres -155, Ducks +129) prices the Sabres at 58% and the Ducks at 42%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Buffalo Sabres 7, Anaheim Ducks 6
Buffalo Sabres won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Anaheim Ducks +1.5): Anaheim Ducks covered.
- Combined score 13 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Buffalo Sabres closed at -155 on the moneyline (a 58% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Anaheim Ducks 6
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Buffalo Sabres.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Buffalo Sabres 58%, Anaheim Ducks 42%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 1:57 — Anaheim Ducks goal (0-1)Anaheim Ducks 44% → 62% (+18 pts)
- 1st 15:32 — Buffalo Sabres goal (3-3)Buffalo Sabres 40% → 57% (+17 pts)
- 2nd 18:36 — Buffalo Sabres goal (4-3)Buffalo Sabres 55% → 78% (+23 pts)
Buffalo Sabres won after falling as low as 26% (1st 11:17).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Buffalo Sabres won 63% of G&W replays (Anaheim Ducks 37%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Buffalo Sabres. Here is where that came from.
| Sabres | Goals | Ducks |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.5 |
| 1.0 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.2 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 3.8 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.8 |
| 0.3 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 1.4 |
| 0.6 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.4 |
| +2.9 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +1.9 |
| -1.9 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Colten Ellis 29/35 · Ville Husso 24/31 | -2.9 |
How the margin was built, from Buffalo Sabres's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Buffalo Sabres closed as the market favourite at 58% and won.
The line moved toward Buffalo Sabres before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sabres -1.5 (+187)
Sabres -1.5 (+154)
Ducks +110 46%
Ducks +129 42%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Sabres won 8 and the Ducks 6.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Sabres 5, Ducks 6 OT Ducks won | Sabres -118 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Ducks 3, Sabres 5 Sabres won | Sabres -150 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Ducks 2, Sabres 3 Sabres won | Sabres -190 favorite won | 6 under |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Sabres 3, Ducks 2 OT Sabres won | Sabres -175 favorite won | 6 under |
| Feb 19, 2024 | Ducks 4, Sabres 3 Ducks won | Sabres -202 underdog won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Buffalo Sabres
- Buffalo Sabres team stats
- Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Nov 4)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (Oct 31)
- Buffalo Sabres 2, San Jose Sharks 0 (Oct 27)
Anaheim Ducks
More NHL games on October 29, 2026
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