Ottawa Senators vs Los Angeles Kings Final — October 29, 2026
OTTStarting goaliesLA
OTTOffense2026-27 regular season to dateLAOTTDefenseLAOTTTeamLAOTT5-on-5LAOTTSpecial teamsLAOTTRecent formLAOTTHome and roadseason to dateLAInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
OTTRest & travelLAOTTKey injuriesLAAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 29, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Senators (8-5-0) visited the Kings (3-6-2) on Thursday, October 29 at 10:10 PM ET.
The Senators score 3.00 goals per game (18th of 32) and allow 2.92 (8th). The Kings score 2.55 goals per game (28th of 32) and allow 3.36 (23rd). The Senators earn 61.5% of available standings points (11th) and the Kings 36.4% (29th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Senators 47.0% (23rd), Kings 47.6% (22nd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Senators 47.1% (25th), Kings 48.1% (19th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Senators 46.5% (19th), Kings 48.6% (18th).
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Senators -125, Kings +102) prices the Senators at 53% and the Kings at 47%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ottawa Senators 5, Los Angeles Kings 6
Los Angeles Kings won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Los Angeles Kings +1.5): Los Angeles Kings covered.
- Combined score 11 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- Los Angeles Kings closed at +102 on the moneyline (a 47% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Los Angeles Kings 6
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Ottawa Senators.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ottawa Senators 53%, Los Angeles Kings 47%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 6:51 — Los Angeles Kings goal (1-2)Los Angeles Kings 48% → 68% (+20 pts)
- 3rd 18:20 — Ottawa Senators goal (5-5)Ottawa Senators 7% → 51% (+45 pts)
- OT 3:37 — Los Angeles Kings goal (5-6)Los Angeles Kings 49% → 100% (+51 pts)
Los Angeles Kings won after falling as low as 31% (1st 13:28).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Los Angeles Kings won 83% of G&W replays (Ottawa Senators 17%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Los Angeles Kings. Here is where that came from.
| Senators | Goals | Kings |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.7 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 3.1 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 1.9 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.9 |
| 0.4 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.4 |
| 0.1 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.7 |
| +2.7 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.7 |
| -0.7 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Samuel Ersson 20/22, Jonas Johansson 12/16 · Darcy Kuemper 17/22 | -2.7 |
How the margin was built, from Los Angeles Kings's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Ottawa Senators closed as the market favourite at 53% and lost.
The line moved toward Ottawa Senators before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Senators +1.5 (-264)
Senators -1.5 (+205)
Kings -110 50%
Kings +102 47%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Senators won 5 and the Kings 9.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2025 | Senators 1, Kings 2 Kings won | Kings -162 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Kings 1, Senators 0 Kings won | Senators -112 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Senators 2, Kings 5 Kings won | Kings -111 favorite won | 6 over |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Kings 7, Senators 8 OT Senators won | Senators -112 favorite won | 6 over |
| Mar 7, 2024 | Senators 3, Kings 4 OT Kings won | Kings -202 favorite won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators team stats
- Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Nov 4)
- Ottawa Senators 3, Anaheim Ducks 6 (Nov 1)
- Ottawa Senators 5, San Jose Sharks 1 (Oct 31)
Los Angeles Kings
More NHL games on October 29, 2026
- Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (Oct 29)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (Oct 29)
- Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6 (Oct 29)
- Chicago Blackhawks 1, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 29)
- Montréal Canadiens 5, Dallas Stars 2 (Oct 29)
- New York Islanders 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (Oct 29)
- Washington Capitals 4, Nashville Predators 3 (Oct 29)
- Boston Bruins 1, St Louis Blues 4 (Oct 29)
- Buffalo Sabres 7, Anaheim Ducks 6 (Oct 29)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (Oct 29)
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