Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks Final — October 31, 2026
OTTStarting goaliesSJ
OTTOffense2026-27 regular season to dateSJOTTDefenseSJOTTTeamSJOTT5-on-5SJOTTSpecial teamsSJOTTRecent formSJOTTHome and roadseason to dateSJInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
OTTRest & travelSJOTTKey injuriesSJAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 31, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Senators (8-5-1) visited the Sharks (7-6-1) on Saturday, October 31 at 4:10 PM ET.
The Senators score 3.14 goals per game (15th of 32) and allow 3.14 (14th). The Sharks score 2.86 goals per game (23rd of 32) and allow 3.36 (21st). The Senators earn 60.7% of available standings points (13th) and the Sharks 53.6% (19th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Senators 47.4% (23rd), Sharks 40.5% (29th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Senators 47.4% (25th), Sharks 45.7% (27th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Senators 46.7% (21st), Sharks 24.5% (32nd).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Senators -154, Sharks +125) prices the Senators at 58% and the Sharks at 42%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ottawa Senators 5, San Jose Sharks 1
Ottawa Senators won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (San Jose Sharks +1.5): Ottawa Senators covered.
- Combined score 6 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Ottawa Senators closed at -154 on the moneyline (a 58% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
San Jose Sharks 1
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Ottawa Senators.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ottawa Senators 58%, San Jose Sharks 42%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 13:25 — Ottawa Senators goal (1-0)Ottawa Senators 57% → 73% (+16 pts)
- 1st 16:06 — San Jose Sharks goal (1-1)San Jose Sharks 27% → 43% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 5:04 — Ottawa Senators goal (2-1)Ottawa Senators 56% → 75% (+18 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Ottawa Senators won 85% of G&W replays (San Jose Sharks 15%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Ottawa Senators. Here is where that came from.
| Senators | Goals | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 2.9 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.2 |
| 1.2 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.4 |
| 0.5 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 4.6 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 1.6 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.2 |
| 1.4 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| -0.6 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.9 |
| +0.9 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Samuel Ersson 22/23 · Alex Nedeljkovic 30/34 | +0.6 |
| 1 | Empty-net goals | 0 |
How the margin was built, from Ottawa Senators's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Ottawa Senators closed as the market favourite at 58% and won.
The line moved toward Ottawa Senators before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Senators -1.5 (+175)
Senators -1.5 (+160)
Sharks +110 46%
Sharks +125 42%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 15 times since 2018-19: the Senators won 9 and the Sharks 6.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sharks 6, Senators 2 Sharks won | Senators -134 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Sharks 4, Senators 7 Senators won | Senators -205 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Senators 3, Sharks 2 Senators won | Senators -166 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Sharks 3, Senators 5 Senators won | Senators -310 favorite won | 6 over |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Senators 4, Sharks 3 Senators won | Senators -238 favorite won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators team stats
- Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Nov 4)
- Ottawa Senators 3, Anaheim Ducks 6 (Nov 1)
- Ottawa Senators 5, Los Angeles Kings 6 (Oct 29)
San Jose Sharks
- San Jose Sharks team stats
- San Jose Sharks 2, Los Angeles Kings 7 (Nov 4)
- Calgary Flames 2, San Jose Sharks 1 (Nov 2)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (Oct 29)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 31, 2026
- Chicago Blackhawks 4, Boston Bruins 5 (Oct 31)
- St Louis Blues 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 31)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Nashville Predators 5 (Oct 31)
- Edmonton Oilers 4, New York Islanders 0 (Oct 31)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (Oct 31)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (Oct 31)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 31)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 31)
- Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 5 (Oct 31)
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