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NCAAF

Missouri State Bears

#128 FBS · 3-5
G&W Power Rating−14.77#128 of 138
Record3-5
Exp W%25.1%what the scoring says
Luck+12.4%winning more than the scoring says
Close W-L1-1games decided by 8 or less

Through games of Oct 27

Team stats

Scoring
For/G21.0103rd of 138
Agst/G33.3113th of 138
Diff/G−12.29117th of 138
Adj. Margin−20.68128th of 138
SOS−8.93
Efficiency
Off EPA/play (raw)0.02383rd of 138
Def EPA/play (raw)0.08473rd of 138
Net EPA/play (raw)−0.06088th of 138
Off SR44.3%97th of 138
Def SR49.1%102nd of 138

League ranks among 138 FBS teams. Green = top third, red = bottom third. Same numbers as the NCAAF power rankings table (2026).

Schedule and results

3-4 ATS · O/U 2-5
Next up
Results, newest first

Result vs the close: against the consensus closing spread (covered / missed) and the closing total (O = over, U = under). Against-the-spread and over/under records exclude the postseason and count the 7 of 8 games with a closing line on file. Preview and Recap open the game page.

Team leaders

Passing leader · QB
Henry Belin IV
73/108, 887 YDS, 6 TD, 4 INT
Rushing leader · RB
Ramone Green Jr.
57 CAR, 246 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving leader · WR
Isaiah Myers
38 REC, 796 YDS, 7 TD

Season to date, all games.

Missouri State Bears players on G&W

Against the market

League table ›

3-4 against the close · −14.5 pts

Against the close3-4avg cover margin −2.1
Beat the close by−14.5 ptsover 7 games
Against the bet-time line1-2+13.5 pts in total
Totals vs the close2-5avg −0.1 pts vs the total
Sep 5: −11.5Sep 19: −2.0Sep 26: +20.5Oct 8: −22.5Oct 14: +5.5Oct 20: −20.0Oct 27: +15.5+20.5 pts−30.0Sep 5Oct 27
Each game vs the closeRunning total vs the closeRunning total vs the bet-time line

Last 4 games: −5.4 pts a game vs the close.

Home 3Road 4
2-1Against the close1-3
+6.3Avg cover margin−8.4
1-2Over/under1-3
−10.2Total vs the close+7.5
Favorite 2Underdog 5
1-1Against the close2-3
−3.5Avg cover margin−1.5
0-2Over/under2-3
−17.0Total vs the close+6.7
G&W vs the market for the Missouri State Bears, game by game, is part of Official Plays.See plans ›

Cover margin: the team's final margin plus its closing spread. Positive means they beat the number by that many points. The bet-time line is the consensus line on the morning of the bet window (Tuesday for football, game day for most other sports). The close is the consensus line just before the start. Every game uses only lines captured before it began. Regular season only.

Our record on this team

Full NCAAF archive ›

Every graded official play that involved this team, on either side, at the price it was sent. The same plays as the Pick Archive and Results.

About these numbers

G&W Power Rating: how many points (goals, runs) better than an average team on a neutral field. The rank and every stat match the NCAAF power rankings table.

Exp W% is the win percentage the Missouri State Bears scoring margin says they should have. Luck is actual win % minus Exp W%: positive means winning more than the scoring says, which tends to even out. Close W-L is the record in one-score games.

Closing line. The consensus spread, total and moneyline just before the game started. Each game page shows the full market for that game.