Missouri State Bears vs Delaware Blue Hens Final — October 20, 2026
MOSTOffense2026 regular season to dateDEL
MOSTDefenseDELMOSTRecent formDELMOSTHome and roadseason to dateDELMOSTLast 10 gamesDELRest & travelrest and travel
MOSTRest & travelDELAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Missouri State (1-4) visited Delaware (1-4) on Tuesday, October 20 at 7:00 PM ET.
Missouri State has the 103rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 74th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Delaware has the 102nd-ranked offense and the 92nd-ranked defense. When Missouri State has the ball, a 103rd-ranked offense (−0.027 EPA per play) meets a 92nd-ranked defense (+0.133 allowed); when Delaware has it, a 102nd-ranked offense (−0.024) meets a 74th-ranked defense (+0.083 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Missouri State offense is at 43.9% (100th) and the Delaware offense at 40.7% (125th). Missouri State scores 17.0 points per game (120th) and allows 33.8 (117th); Delaware scores 19.0 (113th) and allows 30.8 (105th).
Missouri State is 2-4 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 24-21 win over Kennesaw State. Delaware is 2-4 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 33-30 loss to Middle Tennessee.
Delaware closed as a 3-point favorite at home against Missouri State. The spread opened at Delaware -2.5. The total closed at 53.5, up from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Missouri State +138, Delaware -163) prices Missouri State at 40% and Delaware at 60%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Missouri State Bears 38, Delaware Blue Hens 61
Delaware Blue Hens won by 23.
- Against the closing spread (Delaware Blue Hens -3): Delaware Blue Hens covered.
- Combined score 99 vs the closing total of 53.5: Over.
- Delaware Blue Hens closed at -163 on the moneyline (a 60% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Delaware Blue Hens.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Missouri State Bears 40%, Delaware Blue Hens 60%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 0:53 — Delaware Blue Hens ball, 2nd & 10 at DEL 47No Huddle-Shotgun #4 N.Minicucci pass intercepted by #16 J.O'Neal at DEL47 #16 J.O'Neal return 47 yards to the DEL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:53 #36 Y.Obeid kick atte…Missouri State Bears 35% → 57% (+22 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 14:29 — Delaware Blue Hens ball, 1st & 10 at MOST 19No Huddle-Shotgun #4 N.Minicucci sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MSU22 (#92 J.Lukusa, #99 M.Chapman)Missouri State Bears 21% → 54% (+33 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 12:53 — Delaware Blue Hens ball, 4th & 6 at MOST 34PENALTY MSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#24 C.Olabode) 15 yards from MSU34 to MSU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYDelaware Blue Hens 51% → 66% (+15 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 5:56 — Missouri State Bears ball, 2nd & 1 at DEL 25No Huddle-Shotgun #2 H.Belin IV sacked for loss of 12 yards to the DEL37 (#11 J.Corbin), fumble by #2 H.Belin IV recovered by DEL #3 B.Gorham at DEL37 #3 B.Gorha…Delaware Blue Hens 54% → 84% (+30 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 5:12 — Delaware Blue Hens ball, 3rd & 1 at MOST 1No Huddle-Shotgun #21 V.Ellison Jr. rush middle for 14 yards loss to the MSU15 fumbled by #21 V.Ellison Jr. at MSU06 recovered by MSU #8 J.Kpassou at MSU15, End…Missouri State Bears 6% → 28% (+22 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Missouri State | Points added | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| -1.0 | Passingdropbacks | +0.7 |
| -8.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | +2.1 |
| +16.8 | Explosive plays6 plays · 8 plays | +22.3 |
| -3.3 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -9.1 |
| -4.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.1 |
| -2.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +4.2 |
| +5.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 5 · 6 of 8 | +3.6 |
| +3.3 | All plays | +24.0 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 10.3 points to Delaware Blue Hens. The final margin was 23.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Delaware Blue Hens closed as the market favourite at 60% and won.
The line moved toward Delaware Blue Hens before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Missouri State +2.5 (-106)
Missouri State +3 (-105)
Delaware -138 56%
Delaware -163 60%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts108
- Completion %65.7%67th
- Passing yards788222nd
- Yards per attempt7.3131st
- TD–INT4–2
- Rushing yards227206th
- Season line51 carries, 227 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards55413th
- Season line27 catches, 554 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles711st
- Attempts41
- Completion %58.5%
- Passing yards318
- Yards per attempt7.8
- TD–INT3–0
- Rushing yards230199th
- Season line58 carries, 230 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards33998th
- Season line25 catches, 339 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles4285th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 18, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Missouri State | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMissouri State offense vs Delaware defense | 41.5%91st | 50.6%135th |
| Early-down success rateDelaware offense vs Missouri State defense | 45.5%101st | 41.5%90th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMissouri State offense vs Delaware defense | 33.9%107th | 37.0%45th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDelaware offense vs Missouri State defense | 49.2%122nd | 30.4%122nd |
| Explosive play rateMissouri State offense vs Delaware defense | 7.3%47th | 6.4%57th |
| Explosive play rateDelaware offense vs Missouri State defense | 7.2%85th | 7.5%43rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 56.4%21st-highest | 57.1%17th-highest |
On 3rd down Missouri State converts 33.9% (107th) against a Delaware defense allowing 37.0% (45th).
On 3rd down Delaware converts 30.4% (122nd) against a Missouri State defense allowing 49.2% (122nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Missouri State | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Casey Woods | Ryan Carty |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 2–4 | 35–21 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 2–4 | 9–10 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mark Cala | Terence Archer |
| Defensive coordinator | Jack Curtis | Manny Rojas |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Missouri State Bears
- Missouri State Bears team stats
- Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Missouri State Bears 24 (Oct 27)
- Kennesaw State Owls 21, Missouri State Bears 24 (Oct 14)
- Missouri State Bears 13, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34 (Oct 8)
Delaware Blue Hens
More NCAAF games on October 20, 2026
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