Kennesaw State Owls vs Missouri State Bears Final — October 14, 2026
KENNOffense2026 regular season to dateMOST
KENNDefenseMOSTKENNRecent formMOSTKENNHome and roadseason to dateMOSTKENNLast 10 gamesMOSTRest & travelrest and travel
KENNRest & travelMOSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Kennesaw State (0-4) visited Missouri State (0-4) on Wednesday, October 14 at 7:30 PM ET.
Kennesaw State has the 73rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 111th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Missouri State has the 105th-ranked offense and the 83rd-ranked defense. When Kennesaw State has the ball, a 73rd-ranked offense (+0.051 EPA per play) meets a 83rd-ranked defense (+0.103 allowed); when Missouri State has it, a 105th-ranked offense (−0.038) meets a 111th-ranked defense (+0.191 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Kennesaw State offense is at 46.8% (70th) and the Missouri State offense at 42.4% (111th). Kennesaw State scores 16.5 points per game (119th) and allows 29.2 (95th); Missouri State scores 15.2 (125th) and allows 37.0 (124th).
Kennesaw State is 1-4 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 27-26 loss to Jacksonville State. Missouri State is 1-4 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 34-13 loss to Western Kentucky.
Kennesaw State closed as a 2.5-point road favorite, with Missouri State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Kennesaw State -3.5. The total closed at 52.5, up from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kennesaw State -140, Missouri State +116) prices Kennesaw State at 56% and Missouri State at 44%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Kennesaw State Owls 21, Missouri State Bears 24
Missouri State Bears won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Missouri State Bears +2.5): Missouri State Bears covered.
- Combined score 45 vs the closing total of 52.5: Under.
- Missouri State Bears closed at +116 on the moneyline (a 44% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Missouri State Bears.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Kennesaw State Owls 56%, Missouri State Bears 44%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 9:26 — Missouri State Bears ball, 1st & 10 at KENN 14No Huddle-Shotgun #2 H.Belin IV pass complete short middle to #3 I.Myers caught at KSU00, for 14 yards to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:26, 1ST DOWN #40 C.Lair r…Missouri State Bears 58% → 70% (+12 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 12:36 — Kennesaw State Owls ball, 4th & 8 at MOST 24#89 D.Kinney field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: #34 M.McKenzie, LS: #57 B.Blanton), clock 12:36Missouri State Bears 40% → 51% (+11 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:43 — Missouri State Bears ball, 3rd & 6 at MOST 40Shotgun #2 H.Belin IV pass complete deep right to #3 I.Myers caught at KSU28, for 32 yards to the KSU28 (#5 T.Lawson; #0 P.Fisher), 1ST DOWNMissouri State Bears 51% → 67% (+16 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:46 — Kennesaw State Owls ball, 1st & 20 at KENN 15No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete deep right to #13 D.Gary caught at KSU40, for 51 yards to the MSU34 (#7 M.Ganaway), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Holding de…Kennesaw State Owls 18% → 33% (+15 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:49 — Missouri State Bears ball, 2nd & 8 at KENN 46Shotgun #2 H.Belin IV pass complete deep right to #3 I.Myers caught at KSU13, for 32 yards to the KSU14 (#20 T.Hallum), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY KSU Illegal Substitutio…Missouri State Bears 64% → 83% (+19 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Missouri State Bears won after falling as low as 30% (Q4 13:17).
Game DNA
| Kennesaw State | Points added | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6 | Passingdropbacks | -0.5 |
| -8.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.7 |
| +4.2 | Explosive plays2 plays · 5 plays | +14.2 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -3.4 |
| -3.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.6 |
| +4.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.1 |
| +5.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 2 of 6 | -7.2 |
| +0.0 | All plays | +2.0 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 12.6 points to Kennesaw State Owls. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Kennesaw State Owls closed as the market favourite at 56% and lost.
The line moved toward Missouri State Bears before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kennesaw State -3.5 (-102)
Kennesaw State -2.5 (-112)
Missouri State +127 42%
Missouri State +116 44%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts150
- Completion %68.7%32nd
- Passing yards1,027143rd
- Yards per attempt6.8169th
- TD–INT3–3
- Rushing yards246169th
- Season line55 carries, 246 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards299125th
- Season line19 catches, 299 yds
- Tackles36169th
- Attempts108
- Completion %65.7%74th
- Passing yards788204th
- Yards per attempt7.3135th
- TD–INT4–2
- Rushing yards218209th
- Season line42 carries, 218 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards41935th
- Season line20 catches, 419 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles623rd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Kennesaw State | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateKennesaw State offense vs Missouri State defense | 44.6%51st | 44.7%87th |
| Early-down success rateMissouri State offense vs Kennesaw State defense | 46.4%107th | 41.4%87th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKennesaw State offense vs Missouri State defense | 39.0%82nd | 54.9%134th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMissouri State offense vs Kennesaw State defense | 45.7%108th | 29.2%122nd |
| Explosive play rateKennesaw State offense vs Missouri State defense | 4.1%132nd | 8.2%105th |
| Explosive play rateMissouri State offense vs Kennesaw State defense | 5.5%30th | 7.0%62nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 53.4%47th-highest | 56.3%23rd-highest |
On 3rd down Kennesaw State converts 39.0% (82nd) against a Missouri State defense allowing 54.9% (134th).
On 3rd down Missouri State converts 29.2% (122nd) against a Kennesaw State defense allowing 45.7% (108th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Kennesaw State | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jerry Mack | Casey Woods |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 11–8 | 1–4 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 11–8 | 1–4 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mitch Militello | Mark Cala |
| Defensive coordinator | Marc Mattioli | Jack Curtis |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Kennesaw State won 1 and Missouri State 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Missouri State 34, Kennesaw State 41 Kennesaw State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Kennesaw State Owls
- Kennesaw State Owls team stats
- Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Oct 28)
- Liberty Flames 34, Kennesaw State Owls 6 (Oct 22)
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks 27, Kennesaw State Owls 26 (Oct 7)
- Kennesaw State Owls 9, Tennessee Volunteers 42 (Sep 19)
Missouri State Bears
More NCAAF games on October 14, 2026
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