Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Final — October 8, 2026
MOSTOffense2026 regular season to dateWKU
MOSTDefenseWKUMOSTRecent formWKUMOSTHome and roadseason to dateWKUMOSTLast 10 gamesWKURest & travelrest and travel
MOSTRest & travelWKUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Missouri State (0-3) visited Western Kentucky (0-4) on Thursday, October 8 at 7:00 PM ET.
Missouri State has the 101st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 82nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Western Kentucky has the 132nd-ranked offense and the 125th-ranked defense. When Missouri State has the ball, a 101st-ranked offense (−0.040 EPA per play) meets a 125th-ranked defense (+0.267 allowed); when Western Kentucky has it, a 132nd-ranked offense (−0.224) meets a 82nd-ranked defense (+0.100 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Missouri State offense is at 44.3% (92nd) and the Western Kentucky offense at 40.0% (126th). Missouri State scores 16.0 points per game (123rd) and allows 38.0 (123rd); Western Kentucky scores 11.8 (130th) and allows 47.8 (137th).
Missouri State is 1-3 and 2-2 against the spread; its last game was a 34-24 loss to SMU. Western Kentucky is 1-4 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 34-13 loss to New Mexico State.
Missouri State closed as a 1.5-point road favorite, with Western Kentucky getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 56.5, up from 55.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Missouri State -125, Western Kentucky +102) prices Missouri State at 53% and Western Kentucky at 47%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Missouri State Bears 13, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won by 21.
- Against the closing spread (Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +1.5): Western Kentucky Hilltoppers covered.
- Combined score 47 vs the closing total of 56.5: Under.
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers closed at +102 on the moneyline (a 47% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Missouri State Bears.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Missouri State Bears 53%, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 47%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 10:49 — Missouri State Bears ball, 3rd & 4 at MOST 48Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass intercepted by #2 T.Newsome Jr. at WKU32, End Of PlayWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers 46% → 53% (+7 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 4:31 — Missouri State Bears ball, 2nd & 10 at MOST 41No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush right for 48 yards gain to the WKU11 (#7 J.Lewis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNMissouri State Bears 34% → 43% (+9 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:59 — Missouri State Bears ball, 3rd & 10 at WKU 30No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at WKU33, for 13 yards to the WKU17 (#13 L.Thompson), 1ST DOWNMissouri State Bears 43% → 50% (+7 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 4:57 — Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ball, 2nd & 7 at MOST 42No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Glenn pass complete deep left to #80 J.Stafford Jr. caught at MSU17, for 42 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:57, 1ST DOWN #99 K.Cam…Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 60% → 73% (+12 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:23 — Missouri State Bears ball, 2nd & 10 at WKU 36No Huddle-Shotgun #2 H.Belin IV pass complete deep right to #3 I.Myers caught at WKU00, for 36 yards to the WKU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:23, 1ST DOWN. The previous…Missouri State Bears 12% → 20% (+9 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Missouri State | Points added | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Passingdropbacks | -10.5 |
| -5.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | +1.9 |
| +16.4 | Explosive plays3 plays · 7 plays | +16.6 |
| -3.4 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +0.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +5.3 |
| -0.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.2 |
| -3.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 2 of 4 | -0.1 |
| -1.9 | All plays | +14.5 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 7.5 points to Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. The final margin was 21.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Missouri State Bears closed as the market favourite at 53% and lost.
The line moved toward Missouri State Bears before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Missouri State -1.5 (-104)
Missouri State -1.5 (-112)
Western Kentucky -110 50%
Western Kentucky +102 47%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts84
- Completion %70.2%27th
- Passing yards699209th
- Yards per attempt8.364th
- TD–INT4–1
- Rushing yards194201st
- Season line37 carries, 194 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards34251st
- Season line17 catches, 342 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles4610th
- Attempts117
- Completion %66.7%59th
- Passing yards857148th
- Yards per attempt7.3133rd
- TD–INT4–2
- Rushing yards216168th
- Season line59 carries, 216 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards260120th
- Season line30 catches, 260 yds
- Tackles3941st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 255 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Missouri State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMissouri State offense vs Western Kentucky defense | 44.1%52nd | 53.2%138th |
| Early-down success rateWestern Kentucky offense vs Missouri State defense | 44.4%85th | 36.2%130th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMissouri State offense vs Western Kentucky defense | 28.1%122nd | 40.6%74th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWestern Kentucky offense vs Missouri State defense | 55.9%135th | 37.0%91st |
| Explosive play rateMissouri State offense vs Western Kentucky defense | 8.1%40th | 13.2%138th |
| Explosive play rateWestern Kentucky offense vs Missouri State defense | 7.7%95th | 5.8%96th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.0%32nd-highest | 58.3%14th-highest |
On 3rd down Missouri State converts 28.1% (122nd) against a Western Kentucky defense allowing 40.6% (74th).
On 3rd down Western Kentucky converts 37.0% (91st) against a Missouri State defense allowing 55.9% (135th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Missouri State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Casey Woods | Tyson Helton |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 8th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 1–3 | 59–39 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 1–3 | 59–39 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mark Cala | Joe Bernardi / Bodie Reeder |
| Defensive coordinator | Jack Curtis | Davis Merritt |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Missouri State won 0 and Western Kentucky 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2025 | Western Kentucky 27, Missouri State 22 Western Kentucky won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Missouri State Bears
- Missouri State Bears team stats
- Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Missouri State Bears 24 (Oct 27)
- Missouri State Bears 38, Delaware Blue Hens 61 (Oct 20)
- Kennesaw State Owls 21, Missouri State Bears 24 (Oct 14)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
More NCAAF games on October 8, 2026
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