Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Missouri State Bears Final — October 27, 2026
SHSUOffense2026 regular season to dateMOST
SHSUDefenseMOSTSHSURecent formMOSTSHSUHome and roadseason to dateMOSTSHSULast 10 gamesMOSTRest & travelrest and travel
SHSURest & travelMOSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Sam Houston (0-6) visited Missouri State (1-5) on Tuesday, October 27 at 8:00 PM ET.
Sam Houston has the 120th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 39th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Missouri State has the 91st-ranked offense and the 84th-ranked defense. When Sam Houston has the ball, a 120th-ranked offense (−0.087 EPA per play) meets a 84th-ranked defense (+0.122 allowed); when Missouri State has it, a 91st-ranked offense (+0.004) meets a 39th-ranked defense (−0.025 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Sam Houston offense is at 41.3% (127th) and the Missouri State offense at 45.1% (90th). Sam Houston scores 13.7 points per game (133rd) and allows 29.5 (97th); Missouri State scores 20.5 (106th) and allows 38.3 (131st).
Sam Houston is 1-6 and 3-4 against the spread; its last game was a 30-24 loss to New Mexico State. Missouri State is 2-5 and 3-4 against the spread; its last game was a 61-38 loss to Delaware.
Missouri State closed as a 5.5-point favorite at home against Sam Houston. The spread opened at Missouri State -6. The total closed 51.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sam Houston +172, Missouri State -209) prices Sam Houston at 35% and Missouri State at 65%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Missouri State Bears 24
Missouri State Bears won by 21.
- Against the closing spread (Missouri State Bears -5.5): Missouri State Bears covered.
- Combined score 27 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- Missouri State Bears closed at -209 on the moneyline (a 65% no-vig market-implied chance).
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sam Houston +6 (-110)
Sam Houston +5.5 (-110)
Missouri State -219 66%
Missouri State -209 65%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts236
- Completion %62.3%117th
- Passing yards1,65369th
- Yards per attempt7.0157th
- TD–INT12–5
- Rushing yards220264th
- Season line55 carries, 220 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards329143rd
- Season line15 catches, 329 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles44147th
- Attempts108
- Completion %67.6%36th
- Passing yards887218th
- Yards per attempt8.260th
- TD–INT6–4
- Rushing yards246221st
- Season line57 carries, 246 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards7963rd
- Season line38 catches, 796 yds, 7 TD
- Tackles802nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 25, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Sam Houston | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSam Houston offense vs Missouri State defense | 39.2%119th | 46.2%115th |
| Early-down success rateMissouri State offense vs Sam Houston defense | 42.4%58th | 42.9%76th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSam Houston offense vs Missouri State defense | 30.8%122nd | 48.6%123rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMissouri State offense vs Sam Houston defense | 32.4%13th | 36.8%99th |
| Explosive play rateSam Houston offense vs Missouri State defense | 5.0%119th | 8.1%104th |
| Explosive play rateMissouri State offense vs Sam Houston defense | 6.5%60th | 7.8%36th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 62.7%4th-highest | 57.3%16th-highest |
On 3rd down Sam Houston converts 30.8% (122nd) against a Missouri State defense allowing 48.6% (123rd).
On 3rd down Missouri State converts 36.8% (99th) against a Sam Houston defense allowing 32.4% (13th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Sam Houston | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Phil Longo | Casey Woods |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–16 | 2–5 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 3–16 | 2–5 |
| Offensive coordinator | Zack Patterson | Mark Cala |
| Defensive coordinator | Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay | Jack Curtis |
Staff list as of October 27, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Sam Houston State Bearkats
- New Mexico State Aggies 30, Sam Houston State Bearkats 24 (Oct 21)
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 16, Sam Houston State Bearkats 3 (Oct 14)
- Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Liberty Flames 35 (Oct 8)
Missouri State Bears
More NCAAF games on October 27, 2026
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