New Mexico State Aggies vs Florida International Panthers Final — October 7, 2026
NMSUOffense2026 regular season to dateFIU
NMSUDefenseFIUNMSULast 10 gamesFIURest & travelrest and travel
NMSURest & travelFIUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
New Mexico State (1-3) visited Florida International (1-2) on Wednesday, October 7 at 7:30 PM ET.
New Mexico State has the 112th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 83rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Florida International has the 127th-ranked offense and the 6th-ranked defense. When New Mexico State has the ball, a 112th-ranked offense (−0.122 EPA per play) meets a 6th-ranked defense (−0.198 allowed); when Florida International has it, a 127th-ranked offense (−0.208) meets a 83rd-ranked defense (+0.060 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the New Mexico State offense is at 39.9% (108th) and the Florida International offense at 39.4% (115th). New Mexico State scores 22.0 points per game (86th) and allows 29.5 (85th); Florida International scores 17.3 (113th) and allows 18.3 (28th).
Florida International closed as a 6.5-point favorite at home against New Mexico State. The spread opened at Florida International -3.5. The total closed at 46.5, down from 48.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (New Mexico State +205, Florida International -255) prices New Mexico State at 31% and Florida International at 69%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New Mexico State Aggies 3, Florida International Panthers 22
Florida International Panthers won by 19.
- Against the closing spread (Florida International Panthers -6.5): Florida International Panthers covered.
- Combined score 25 vs the closing total of 46.5: Under.
- Florida International Panthers closed at -255 on the moneyline (a 69% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 8 points toward Florida International Panthers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New Mexico State Aggies 31%, Florida International Panthers 69%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 7:02 — New Mexico State Aggies ball, 1st & 10 at 50Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass intercepted by #4 W.Miller at FIU27 #4 W.Miller return 20 yards to the FIU47 (#88 C.Su'esu'e)Florida International Panthers 64% → 75% (+11 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 1:31 — Florida International Panthers ball, 1st & 1 at NMSU 1No Huddle #1 A.Carrie rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:31 #48 R.Czeremcha kick attempt good (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood)New Mexico State Aggies 9% → 17% (+9 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 14:41 — New Mexico State Aggies ball, 3rd & 7 at NMSU 39Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short middle to #9 T.Graves caught at FIU46, for 26 yards to the FIU35 (#3 D.Hill), 1ST DOWNNew Mexico State Aggies 17% → 22% (+5 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:32 — Florida International Panthers ball, 3rd & 16 at FIU 15No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #8 G.Gaines caught at FIU32, for 19 yards to the FIU34 (#5 N.Session), 1ST DOWNFlorida International Panthers 75% → 81% (+6 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 10:13 — Florida International Panthers ball, 3rd & 6 at NMSU 19No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl sacked for loss of 16 yards to the NMSU35 (#14 S.Aupiu), fumble by #17 J.Kohl recovered by FIU #1 A.Carrie at NMSU35, End Of PlayNew Mexico State Aggies 11% → 16% (+5 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| New Mexico State | Points added | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| -15.4 | Passingdropbacks | +4.3 |
| -4.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -12.0 |
| +8.2 | Explosive plays3 plays · 1 plays | +2.8 |
| -8.8 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -2.2 |
| -1.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +8.5 |
| -3.9 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.6 |
| -1.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 1 · 0 of 5 | -6.9 |
| -27.3 | All plays | -7.2 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 19.7 points to Florida International Panthers. The final margin was 19.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Florida International Panthers closed as the market favourite at 69% and won.
The line moved toward Florida International Panthers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
New Mexico State +3.5 (-110)
New Mexico State +6.5 (-106)
Florida International -170 60%
Florida International -255 69%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts116
- Completion %54.3%229th
- Passing yards887136th
- Yards per attempt7.7114th
- TD–INT5–5
- Rushing yards51014th
- Season line77 carries, 510 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards28692nd
- Season line20 catches, 286 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles3761st
- Attempts140
- Completion %57.1%194th
- Passing yards1,06594th
- Yards per attempt7.6117th
- TD–INT5–6
- Rushing yards195196th
- Season line56 carries, 195 yds
- Receiving yards38231st
- Season line24 catches, 382 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles23375th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 255 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | New Mexico State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateNew Mexico State offense vs Florida International defense | 34.4%128th | 33.8%8th |
| Early-down success rateFlorida International offense vs New Mexico State defense | 38.2%52nd | 36.0%112th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNew Mexico State offense vs Florida International defense | 40.8%69th | 31.8%17th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFlorida International offense vs New Mexico State defense | 44.4%105th | 44.4%44th |
| Explosive play rateNew Mexico State offense vs Florida International defense | 6.8%71st | 3.7%4th |
| Explosive play rateFlorida International offense vs New Mexico State defense | 8.1%101st | 7.0%63rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 57.2%21st-highest | 58.3%13th-highest |
On 3rd down New Mexico State converts 40.8% (69th) against a Florida International defense allowing 31.8% (17th).
On 3rd down Florida International converts 44.4% (44th) against a New Mexico State defense allowing 44.4% (105th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | New Mexico State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Tony Sanchez | Willie Simmons |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 9–20 | 9–8 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 29–60 | 9–8 |
| Offensive coordinator | David Yost | Nick Coleman |
| Defensive coordinator | Joe Morris | Jovan Dewitt |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: New Mexico State won 1 and Florida International 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 neutral | New Mexico State 13, Florida International 34 Florida International won | ||
| Oct 4, 2023 | Florida International 17, New Mexico State 34 New Mexico State won | ||
| Oct 1, 2022 | Florida International 21, New Mexico State 7 Florida International won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
New Mexico State Aggies
- New Mexico State Aggies team stats
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks at New Mexico State Aggies (Oct 28)
- New Mexico State Aggies 30, Sam Houston State Bearkats 24 (Oct 21)
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 13, New Mexico State Aggies 34 (Oct 1)
Florida International Panthers
- Florida International Panthers team stats
- Florida International Panthers at Liberty Flames (Oct 31)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Florida International Panthers 23 (Oct 20)
- Florida International Panthers 24, Jacksonville State Gamecocks 27 (Oct 13)
- Florida International Panthers 10, Florida Atlantic Owls 16 (Sep 19)
More NCAAF games on October 7, 2026
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