Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Florida International Panthers Final — October 20, 2026
MTSUOffense2026 regular season to dateFIU
MTSUDefenseFIUMTSURecent formFIUMTSUHome and roadseason to dateFIUMTSULast 10 gamesFIURest & travelrest and travel
MTSURest & travelFIUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Middle Tennessee (2-3) visited Florida International (2-3) on Tuesday, October 20 at 7:00 PM ET.
Middle Tennessee has the 100th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 82nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Florida International has the 120th-ranked offense and the 30th-ranked defense. When Middle Tennessee has the ball, a 100th-ranked offense (−0.020 EPA per play) meets a 30th-ranked defense (−0.050 allowed); when Florida International has it, a 120th-ranked offense (−0.080) meets a 82nd-ranked defense (+0.105 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Middle Tennessee offense is at 43.6% (102nd) and the Florida International offense at 43.3% (103rd). Middle Tennessee scores 19.8 points per game (104th) and allows 31.2 (108th); Florida International scores 19.6 (107th) and allows 17.0 (18th).
Middle Tennessee is 3-3 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 33-30 win over Delaware. Florida International is 3-3 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 27-24 loss to Jacksonville State.
Florida International closed as a 10-point favorite at home against Middle Tennessee. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 46.5, up from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Middle Tennessee +310, Florida International -415) prices Middle Tennessee at 23% and Florida International at 77%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Florida International Panthers 23
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Florida International Panthers -10): Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders covered.
- Combined score 49 vs the closing total of 46.5: Over.
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders closed at +310 on the moneyline (a 23% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 23%, Florida International Panthers 77%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 5:33 — Florida International Panthers ball, 2nd & 10 at MTSU 30No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Ford rush middle for 27 yards gain to the MTS03 (#30 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNFlorida International Panthers 46% → 58% (+12 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 4:03 — Florida International Panthers ball, 3rd & 1 at MTSU 1Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #88 K.Schaeffer caught at MTS00, for 1 yard to the MTS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:03 #3 D.Lyons rush attempt SuccessfulFlorida International Panthers 54% → 65% (+11 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 2:06 — Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ball, 2nd & 14 at MTSU 46No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 54 yards gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:06, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, L…Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 36% → 60% (+24 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 13:20 — Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ball, 2nd & 11 at MTSU 21Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete deep left to #85 N.Clifton caught at MTS42, for 45 yards to the FIU34 (#4 W.Miller), 1ST DOWNMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders 67% → 80% (+13 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:34 — Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ball, 4th & 10 at FIU 40No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete deep middle to #3 C.Lacy caught at FIU20, for 25 yards to the FIU15 (#4 W.Miller), 1ST DOWNMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders 75% → 96% (+20 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders won after falling as low as 13% (Q1 9:35).
Game DNA
| Middle Tennessee | Points added | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| -6.4 | Passingdropbacks | -10.8 |
| -0.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.2 |
| +17.1 | Explosive plays5 plays · 3 plays | +8.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -1.9 |
| -1.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.6 |
| -0.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -3.9 |
| -4.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 3 · 1 of 1 | +3.6 |
| +3.7 | All plays | -6.5 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 8.3 points to Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Florida International Panthers closed as the market favourite at 77% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Middle Tennessee +10 (-110)
Middle Tennessee +10 (-109)
Florida International -429 78%
Florida International -415 77%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts188
- Completion %58.5%178th
- Passing yards1,204140th
- Yards per attempt6.4206th
- TD–INT11–2
- Rushing yards43350th
- Season line83 carries, 433 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards36973rd
- Season line35 catches, 369 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles5610th
- Attempts176
- Completion %59.1%
- Passing yards1,271
- Yards per attempt7.2
- TD–INT6–6
- Rushing yards268160th
- Season line65 carries, 268 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards53414th
- Season line33 catches, 534 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles37162nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 18, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Middle Tennessee | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Florida International defense | 41.3%93rd | 40.4%29th |
| Early-down success rateFlorida International offense vs Middle Tennessee defense | 48.4%127th | 38.6%124th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Florida International defense | 28.6%131st | 30.3%7th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFlorida International offense vs Middle Tennessee defense | 39.6%61st | 46.4%32nd |
| Explosive play rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Florida International defense | 4.3%129th | 5.3%27th |
| Explosive play rateFlorida International offense vs Middle Tennessee defense | 7.5%93rd | 5.5%107th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 58.4%14th-highest | 54.4%33rd-highest |
On 3rd down Middle Tennessee converts 28.6% (131st) against a Florida International defense allowing 30.3% (7th).
On 3rd down Florida International converts 46.4% (32nd) against a Middle Tennessee defense allowing 39.6% (61st).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Middle Tennessee | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Derek Mason | Willie Simmons |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 9–21 | 10–9 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 36–76 | 10–9 |
| Offensive coordinator | Anthony Scelfo | Nick Coleman |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Stewart | Jovan Dewitt |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Middle Tennessee won 3 and Florida International 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Florida International 56, Middle Tennessee 30 Florida International won | ||
| Nov 30, 2024 neutral | Middle Tennessee 24, Florida International 35 Florida International won | ||
| Nov 11, 2023 | Florida International 6, Middle Tennessee 40 Middle Tennessee won | ||
| Nov 26, 2022 | Middle Tennessee 33, Florida International 28 Middle Tennessee won | ||
| Nov 13, 2021 | Florida International 10, Middle Tennessee 50 Middle Tennessee won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders team stats
- Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Oct 28)
- Delaware Blue Hens 30, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 33 (Oct 13)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Marshall Thundering Herd 28 (Sep 12)
Florida International Panthers
- Florida International Panthers team stats
- Florida International Panthers at Liberty Flames (Oct 31)
- Florida International Panthers 24, Jacksonville State Gamecocks 27 (Oct 13)
- New Mexico State Aggies 3, Florida International Panthers 22 (Oct 7)
- Florida International Panthers 10, Florida Atlantic Owls 16 (Sep 19)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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