New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston State Bearkats Final — October 21, 2026
NMSUOffense2026 regular season to dateSHSU
NMSUDefenseSHSUNMSURecent formSHSUNMSUHome and roadseason to dateSHSUNMSULast 10 gamesSHSURest & travelrest and travel
NMSURest & travelSHSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
New Mexico State (1-4) visited Sam Houston (0-5) on Wednesday, October 21 at 8:00 PM ET.
New Mexico State has the 128th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 41st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Sam Houston has the 99th-ranked offense and the 43rd-ranked defense. When New Mexico State has the ball, a 128th-ranked offense (−0.126 EPA per play) meets a 43rd-ranked defense (+0.002 allowed); when Sam Houston has it, a 99th-ranked offense (−0.009) meets a 41st-ranked defense (−0.013 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the New Mexico State offense is at 38.7% (136th) and the Sam Houston offense at 44.1% (100th). New Mexico State scores 18.2 points per game (117th) and allows 28.0 (81st); Sam Houston scores 11.6 (135th) and allows 29.4 (96th).
New Mexico State is 2-4; its last game was a 22-3 loss to Florida International. Sam Houston is 1-5 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 16-3 loss to Western Kentucky.
New Mexico State closed as a 3.5-point road favorite, with Sam Houston getting the points at home. The spread opened at New Mexico State -2.5. The total closed at 46.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (New Mexico State -167, Sam Houston +135) prices New Mexico State at 60% and Sam Houston at 40%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New Mexico State Aggies 30, Sam Houston State Bearkats 24
New Mexico State Aggies won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (Sam Houston State Bearkats +3.5): New Mexico State Aggies covered.
- Combined score 54 vs the closing total of 46.5: Over.
- New Mexico State Aggies closed at -167 on the moneyline (a 60% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward New Mexico State Aggies.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New Mexico State Aggies 60%, Sam Houston State Bearkats 40%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 10:13 — Sam Houston State Bearkats ball, 1st & 10 at SHSU 9No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Locke pass intercepted by #1 J.Charles at SAM26 QB hurried by #8 B.Vislisel #1 J.Charles return 25 yards to the SAM01 (#14 L.Deyon)New Mexico State Aggies 34% → 52% (+18 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:28 — New Mexico State Aggies ball, 2nd & 9 at NMSU 25Shotgun #11 A.Williams III rush left for 5 yards loss to the NMS20 fumbled by #11 A.Williams III at NMS18 recovered by SAM #13 R.Adams at NMS20, End Of Play. The previou…Sam Houston State Bearkats 43% → 57% (+14 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 14:40 — Sam Houston State Bearkats ball, 1st & 10 at SHSU 19Tim Burns Jr. 81 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Sam Carpenter Kick)Sam Houston State Bearkats 31% → 52% (+21 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:43 — Sam Houston State Bearkats ball, 2nd & 14 at NMSU 32Shotgun #8 L.Locke pass complete short left to #6 J.Parker caught at NMS37, for 1 yard to the NMS31 (#14 S.Aupiu)New Mexico State Aggies 70% → 94% (+24 pts) · Drive 30 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Sam Houston State Bearkats ball, 1st & 17 at NMSU 32Shotgun #8 L.Locke rush right for 3 yards gain to the NMS29, out of bounds at NMS29Sam Houston State Bearkats <1% → 16% (+15 pts) · Drive 30 in Drive X-Ray
New Mexico State Aggies won after falling as low as 28% (Q1 4:47).
Game DNA
| New Mexico State | Points added | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2 | Passingdropbacks | -7.7 |
| -7.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.4 |
| +8.6 | Explosive plays5 plays · 1 plays | +5.5 |
| -9.4 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -13.0 |
| -7.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.8 |
| -3.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -8.8 |
| +0.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 1 of 3 | -3.1 |
| -19.7 | All plays | -30.7 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 10.2 points to Sam Houston State Bearkats. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
New Mexico State Aggies closed as the market favourite at 60% and won.
The line moved toward New Mexico State Aggies before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
New Mexico State -2.5 (-116)
New Mexico State -3.5 (-102)
Sam Houston +116 44%
Sam Houston +135 40%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts63
- Completion %60.3%
- Passing yards388
- Yards per attempt6.2
- TD–INT3–2
- Rushing yards59921st
- Season line92 carries, 599 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards286180th
- Season line20 catches, 286 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles5070th
- Attempts205
- Completion %62.9%110th
- Passing yards1,41889th
- Yards per attempt6.9161st
- TD–INT11–4
- Rushing yards211269th
- Season line53 carries, 211 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards289175th
- Season line17 catches, 289 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles38224th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | New Mexico State | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateNew Mexico State offense vs Sam Houston defense | 33.3%138th | 41.3%37th |
| Early-down success rateSam Houston offense vs New Mexico State defense | 41.2%36th | 42.2%86th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNew Mexico State offense vs Sam Houston defense | 37.7%90th | 35.5%32nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSam Houston offense vs New Mexico State defense | 44.1%98th | 32.3%114th |
| Explosive play rateNew Mexico State offense vs Sam Houston defense | 6.8%65th | 6.3%49th |
| Explosive play rateSam Houston offense vs New Mexico State defense | 6.8%69th | 4.9%121st |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 57.0%17th-highest | 62.0%6th-highest |
On 3rd down New Mexico State converts 37.7% (90th) against a Sam Houston defense allowing 35.5% (32nd).
On 3rd down Sam Houston converts 32.3% (114th) against a New Mexico State defense allowing 44.1% (98th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | New Mexico State | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Tony Sanchez | Phil Longo |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 9–21 | 3–15 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 29–61 | 3–15 |
| Offensive coordinator | David Yost | Zack Patterson |
| Defensive coordinator | Joe Morris | Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: New Mexico State won 2 and Sam Houston 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2025 | Sam Houston 10, New Mexico State 37 New Mexico State won | ||
| Sep 21, 2024 | New Mexico State 11, Sam Houston 31 Sam Houston won | ||
| Oct 11, 2023 | Sam Houston 13, New Mexico State 27 New Mexico State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
New Mexico State Aggies
- New Mexico State Aggies team stats
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks at New Mexico State Aggies (Oct 28)
- New Mexico State Aggies 3, Florida International Panthers 22 (Oct 7)
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 13, New Mexico State Aggies 34 (Oct 1)
Sam Houston State Bearkats
- Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Missouri State Bears 24 (Oct 27)
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 16, Sam Houston State Bearkats 3 (Oct 14)
- Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Liberty Flames 35 (Oct 8)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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