Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Sam Houston State Bearkats Final — October 14, 2026
WKUOffense2026 regular season to dateSHSU
WKUDefenseSHSUWKURecent formSHSUWKUHome and roadseason to dateSHSUWKULast 10 gamesSHSURest & travelrest and travel
WKURest & travelSHSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Western Kentucky (1-4) visited Sam Houston (0-4) on Wednesday, October 14 at 8:00 PM ET.
Western Kentucky has the 128th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 109th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Sam Houston has the 71st-ranked offense and the 64th-ranked defense. When Western Kentucky has the ball, a 128th-ranked offense (−0.133 EPA per play) meets a 64th-ranked defense (+0.052 allowed); when Sam Houston has it, a 71st-ranked offense (+0.062) meets a 109th-ranked defense (+0.182 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Western Kentucky offense is at 42.5% (109th) and the Sam Houston offense at 46.5% (76th). Western Kentucky scores 16.2 points per game (121st) and allows 40.8 (131st); Sam Houston scores 13.8 (130th) and allows 32.8 (111th).
Western Kentucky is 2-4 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 34-13 win over Missouri State. Sam Houston is 1-4 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 35-3 loss to Liberty.
Western Kentucky closed as a 1.5-point road favorite, with Sam Houston getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 53.5, up from 51 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Western Kentucky -115, Sam Houston -105) prices Western Kentucky at 51% and Sam Houston at 49%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 16, Sam Houston State Bearkats 3
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won by 13.
- Against the closing spread (Sam Houston State Bearkats +1.5): Western Kentucky Hilltoppers covered.
- Combined score 19 vs the closing total of 53.5: Under.
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers closed at -115 on the moneyline (a 51% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 51%, Sam Houston State Bearkats 49%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 10:06 — Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ball, 2nd & 10 at SHSU 23No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Glenn pass complete short left to #87 C.Arends caught at SAM07, for 23 yards to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:06, 1ST DOWN #99 K.Campbell…Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 62% → 69% (+7 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:54 — Sam Houston State Bearkats ball, 3rd & 10 at WKU 25Shotgun #8 L.Locke sacked for loss of 10 yards to the WKU35 (#32 W.Ard)Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 67% → 72% (+5 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:23 — Sam Houston State Bearkats ball, 2nd & 8 at WKU 37No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Dowdy rush left for 5 yards loss to the WKU42 (#32 W.Ard)Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 69% → 75% (+5 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 1:45 — Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ball, 1st & 20 at WKU 41No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Glenn pass complete deep left to #8 M.Barry caught at SAM31, for 31 yards to the SAM28 (#5 I.Atkins), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers 82% → 88% (+6 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 13:20 — Sam Houston State Bearkats ball, 3rd & 10 at SHSU 40No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Locke pass intercepted by #2 T.Newsome Jr. at WKU38 #2 T.Newsome Jr. return 22 yards to the SAM40 (#5 K.Berry-Johnson)Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 87% → 93% (+5 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Western Kentucky | Points added | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | Passingdropbacks | -9.3 |
| -11.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.8 |
| +6.5 | Explosive plays3 plays · 1 plays | +2.6 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.9 |
| -4.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.4 |
| +7.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.2 |
| -3.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 0 of 0 | +0.0 |
| -8.1 | All plays | -17.6 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 8.5 points to Sam Houston State Bearkats. The final margin was 13.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers closed as the market favourite at 51% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Western Kentucky -1.5 (-105)
Western Kentucky -1.5 (-110)
Sam Houston -105 49%
Sam Houston -105 49%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts117
- Completion %66.7%56th
- Passing yards857184th
- Yards per attempt7.3130th
- TD–INT4–2
- Rushing yards321103rd
- Season line72 carries, 321 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards33296th
- Season line36 catches, 332 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles5316th
- Attempts175
- Completion %66.3%66th
- Passing yards1,30682nd
- Yards per attempt7.5123rd
- TD–INT11–3
- Rushing yards201238th
- Season line50 carries, 201 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards255171st
- Season line25 catches, 255 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles26454th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Western Kentucky | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateWestern Kentucky offense vs Sam Houston defense | 38.8%118th | 42.6%56th |
| Early-down success rateSam Houston offense vs Western Kentucky defense | 48.6%125th | 44.3%57th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWestern Kentucky offense vs Sam Houston defense | 41.3%69th | 31.7%13th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSam Houston offense vs Western Kentucky defense | 37.5%55th | 34.6%100th |
| Explosive play rateWestern Kentucky offense vs Sam Houston defense | 6.8%70th | 7.0%76th |
| Explosive play rateSam Houston offense vs Western Kentucky defense | 10.8%136th | 5.2%108th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.2%30th-highest | 62.5%3rd-highest |
On 3rd down Western Kentucky converts 41.3% (69th) against a Sam Houston defense allowing 31.7% (13th).
On 3rd down Sam Houston converts 34.6% (100th) against a Western Kentucky defense allowing 37.5% (55th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Western Kentucky | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Tyson Helton | Phil Longo |
| Tenureat this school | 8th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 60–39 | 3–14 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 60–39 | 3–14 |
| Offensive coordinator | Joe Bernardi / Bodie Reeder | Zack Patterson |
| Defensive coordinator | Davis Merritt | Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Western Kentucky won 3 and Sam Houston 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2025 | Sam Houston 24, Western Kentucky 41 Western Kentucky won | ||
| Oct 16, 2024 | Western Kentucky 31, Sam Houston 14 Western Kentucky won | ||
| Nov 18, 2023 | Sam Houston 23, Western Kentucky 28 Western Kentucky won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers team stats
- Delaware Blue Hens 35, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 21 (Oct 27)
- Missouri State Bears 13, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34 (Oct 8)
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 13, New Mexico State Aggies 34 (Oct 1)
Sam Houston State Bearkats
- Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Missouri State Bears 24 (Oct 27)
- New Mexico State Aggies 30, Sam Houston State Bearkats 24 (Oct 21)
- Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Liberty Flames 35 (Oct 8)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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