Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Liberty Flames Final — October 8, 2026
SHSUOffense2026 regular season to dateLIB
SHSUDefenseLIBSHSURecent formLIBSHSUHome and roadseason to dateLIBSHSULast 10 gamesLIBRest & travelrest and travel
SHSURest & travelLIBAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Sam Houston (0-3) visited Liberty (3-1) on Thursday, October 8 at 7:00 PM ET.
Sam Houston has the 68th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 42nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Liberty has the 34th-ranked offense and the 52nd-ranked defense. When Sam Houston has the ball, a 68th-ranked offense (+0.062 EPA per play) meets a 52nd-ranked defense (+0.011 allowed); when Liberty has it, a 34th-ranked offense (+0.175) meets a 42nd-ranked defense (−0.022 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Sam Houston offense is at 45.1% (85th) and the Liberty offense at 52.8% (14th). Sam Houston scores 17.3 points per game (114th) and allows 32.0 (106th); Liberty scores 32.0 (41st) and allows 16.5 (23rd).
Sam Houston is 1-3 and 3-1 against the spread; its last game was a 49-14 loss to Texas Tech. Liberty is 4-1 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 30-14 win over Delaware.
Liberty closed as a 13.5-point favorite at home against Sam Houston. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 52.5, up from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sam Houston +403, Liberty -577) prices Sam Houston at 19% and Liberty at 81%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Liberty Flames 35
Liberty Flames won by 32.
- Against the closing spread (Liberty Flames -13.5): Liberty Flames covered.
- Combined score 38 vs the closing total of 52.5: Under.
- Liberty Flames closed at -577 on the moneyline (a 81% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Sam Houston State Bearkats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Sam Houston State Bearkats 19%, Liberty Flames 81%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| Sam Houston | Points added | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| +1.1 | Passingdropbacks | +0.4 |
| -3.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | +2.2 |
| +5.8 | Explosive plays3 plays · 3 plays | +8.2 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.5 |
| -1.9 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.1 |
| -3.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 5 of 5 | +5.9 |
| -0.5 | All plays | +16.0 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 9.0 points to Liberty Flames. The final margin was 32.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Liberty Flames closed as the market favourite at 81% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sam Houston +13.5 (-110)
Sam Houston +13.5 (-110)
Liberty -579 82%
Liberty -577 81%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts145
- Completion %66.2%64th
- Passing yards1,16875th
- Yards per attempt8.187th
- TD–INT11–3
- Rushing yards165255th
- Season line43 carries, 165 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards220177th
- Season line11 catches, 220 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles20519th
- Attempts100
- Completion %60.0%155th
- Passing yards936126th
- Yards per attempt9.424th
- TD–INT7–0
- Rushing yards45722nd
- Season line64 carries, 457 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards46915th
- Season line19 catches, 469 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles25296th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 255 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Sam Houston | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSam Houston offense vs Liberty defense | 42.8%72nd | 41.9%56th |
| Early-down success rateLiberty offense vs Sam Houston defense | 39.5%26th | 48.9%15th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSam Houston offense vs Liberty defense | 36.6%92nd | 30.0%8th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLiberty offense vs Sam Houston defense | 32.4%20th | 50.0%19th |
| Explosive play rateSam Houston offense vs Liberty defense | 5.3%105th | 6.2%49th |
| Explosive play rateLiberty offense vs Sam Houston defense | 6.8%74th | 7.9%41st |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 64.9%4th-highest | 39.7%127th-highest |
On 3rd down Sam Houston converts 36.6% (92nd) against a Liberty defense allowing 30.0% (8th).
On 3rd down Liberty converts 50.0% (19th) against a Sam Houston defense allowing 32.4% (20th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Sam Houston | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Phil Longo | Jamey Chadwell |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–13 | 29–14 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 3–13 | 68–36 |
| Offensive coordinator | Zack Patterson | Newland Isaac |
| Defensive coordinator | Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay | Skylor Magee |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Sam Houston won 1 and Liberty 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | Liberty 18, Sam Houston 20 Sam Houston won | ||
| Oct 5, 2023 | Sam Houston 16, Liberty 21 Liberty won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Sam Houston State Bearkats
- Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Missouri State Bears 24 (Oct 27)
- New Mexico State Aggies 30, Sam Houston State Bearkats 24 (Oct 21)
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 16, Sam Houston State Bearkats 3 (Oct 14)
Liberty Flames
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