East Carolina Pirates vs Memphis Tigers Final — October 22, 2026
ECUOffense2026 regular season to dateMEM
ECUDefenseMEMECURecent formMEMECUHome and roadseason to dateMEMECULast 10 gamesMEMRest & travelrest and travel
ECURest & travelMEMAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
East Carolina (2-3) visited Memphis (4-2) on Thursday, October 22 at 7:30 PM ET.
East Carolina has the 119th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 26th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Memphis has the 51st-ranked offense and the 18th-ranked defense. When East Carolina has the ball, a 119th-ranked offense (−0.073 EPA per play) meets a 18th-ranked defense (−0.076 allowed); when Memphis has it, a 51st-ranked offense (+0.124) meets a 26th-ranked defense (−0.058 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the East Carolina offense is at 43.0% (107th) and the Memphis offense at 49.3% (43rd). East Carolina scores 19.8 points per game (109th) and allows 26.8 (75th); Memphis scores 33.8 (25th) and allows 22.5 (46th).
East Carolina is 3-3 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 30-17 loss to UAB. Memphis is 5-2; its last game was a 31-17 loss to Tulane.
Memphis closed as a 10.5-point favorite at home against East Carolina. The spread opened at Memphis -9.5. The total closed at 55.5, up from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (East Carolina +330, Memphis -445) prices East Carolina at 22% and Memphis at 78%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
East Carolina Pirates 34, Memphis Tigers 41
Memphis Tigers won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Memphis Tigers -10.5): East Carolina Pirates covered.
- Combined score 75 vs the closing total of 55.5: Over.
- Memphis Tigers closed at -445 on the moneyline (a 78% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Memphis Tigers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (East Carolina Pirates 22%, Memphis Tigers 78%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 11:26 — Memphis Tigers ball, 3rd & 1 at MEM 34Shotgun #0 H.Tipton sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MEM31 (#44 P.Carr) PENALTY MEM Intentional Grounding (#0 H.Tipton)Memphis Tigers 36% → 61% (+25 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 11:19 — Memphis Tigers ball, 4th & 4 at MEM 31#30 H.Tuck punt 42 yards to the ECU27 muffed by #0 K.Pearson at ECU27 recovered by MEM #26 J.Lewis at ECU28, End Of PlayEast Carolina Pirates 37% → 64% (+27 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:30 — East Carolina Pirates ball, 4th & 9 at MEM 20No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Griffis pass complete deep middle to #7 L.Sides caught at MEM00, for 20 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:30, 1ST DOWN #43 N.Perez k…East Carolina Pirates 7% → 31% (+23 pts) · Drive 27 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — East Carolina Pirates ball, 1st & 4 at MEM 25No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Engleman Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM24 (#34 K.Spratling; #3 D.Smith)Memphis Tigers 60% → 100% (+40 pts) · Drive 30 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Memphis Tigers ball, 1st & 5 at ECU 25No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep middle to #13 J.Davis caught at ECU05, for 20 yards to the ECU05 (#22 A.Ross), 1ST DOWNMemphis Tigers 66% → 88% (+22 pts) · Drive 29 in Drive X-Ray
Memphis Tigers won after falling as low as 21% (Q3 8:19).
Game DNA
| East Carolina | Points added | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| -10.1 | Passingdropbacks | +3.4 |
| -6.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.1 |
| +19.0 | Explosive plays8 plays · 3 plays | +8.2 |
| -1.7 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -1.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.0 |
| +0.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.9 |
| -1.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 7 · 4 of 6 | +3.1 |
| -1.2 | All plays | +5.7 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 13.5 points to Memphis Tigers. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Memphis Tigers closed as the market favourite at 78% and won.
The line moved toward Memphis Tigers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
East Carolina +9.5 (-105)
East Carolina +10.5 (-115)
Memphis -402 77%
Memphis -445 78%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts104
- Completion %65.4%72nd
- Passing yards655238th
- Yards per attempt6.3211th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards49045th
- Season line71 carries, 490 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards272206th
- Season line29 catches, 272 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles42156th
- Attempts181
- Completion %66.9%49th
- Passing yards1,84125th
- Yards per attempt10.28th
- TD–INT18–6
- Rushing yards7807th
- Season line112 carries, 780 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards38086th
- Season line22 catches, 380 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles47103rd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | East Carolina | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateEast Carolina offense vs Memphis defense | 40.8%97th | 39.8%25th |
| Early-down success rateMemphis offense vs East Carolina defense | 37.2%9th | 47.9%18th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateEast Carolina offense vs Memphis defense | 33.3%108th | 31.9%11th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMemphis offense vs East Carolina defense | 34.3%25th | 42.4%55th |
| Explosive play rateEast Carolina offense vs Memphis defense | 5.3%111th | 8.3%113th |
| Explosive play rateMemphis offense vs East Carolina defense | 6.9%72nd | 9.0%18th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 43.7%115th-highest | 43.2%117th-highest |
On 3rd down East Carolina converts 33.3% (108th) against a Memphis defense allowing 31.9% (11th).
On 3rd down Memphis converts 42.4% (55th) against a East Carolina defense allowing 34.3% (25th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | East Carolina | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Blake Harrell | Charles Huff |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 17–8 | 5–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 17–8 | 44–27 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jordan Davis | Kevin Decker / David Weeks |
| Defensive coordinator | Jordan Hankins | Lance Guidry |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: East Carolina won 3 and Memphis 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | Memphis 27, East Carolina 31 East Carolina won | ||
| Oct 15, 2022 | Memphis 45, East Carolina 47 East Carolina won | ||
| Nov 13, 2021 | East Carolina 30, Memphis 29 East Carolina won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
East Carolina Pirates
- East Carolina Pirates team stats
- Temple Owls at East Carolina Pirates (Oct 31)
- East Carolina Pirates 17, UAB Blazers 30 (Oct 15)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
Memphis Tigers
More NCAAF games on October 22, 2026
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