Rice Owls vs East Carolina Pirates Final — October 10, 2026
RICEOffense2026 regular season to dateECU
RICEDefenseECURICERecent formECURICEHome and roadseason to dateECURICELast 10 gamesECURest & travelrest and travel
RICERest & travelECUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Rice (0-4) visited East Carolina (1-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 1:00 PM ET.
Rice has the 78th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 104th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, East Carolina has the 112th-ranked offense and the 53rd-ranked defense. When Rice has the ball, a 78th-ranked offense (+0.040 EPA per play) meets a 53rd-ranked defense (+0.022 allowed); when East Carolina has it, a 112th-ranked offense (−0.078) meets a 104th-ranked defense (+0.164 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Rice offense is at 45.3% (84th) and the East Carolina offense at 44.7% (91st). Rice scores 14.8 points per game (125th) and allows 33.5 (111th); East Carolina scores 18.0 (111th) and allows 30.7 (95th).
Rice is 0-4 and 2-2 against the spread; its last game was a 16-14 loss to UTSA. East Carolina is 2-2 and 1-3 against the spread; its last game was a 42-9 win over North Carolina Central.
East Carolina closed as a 10-point favorite at home against Rice. The spread opened at East Carolina -7.5. The total closed at 46.5, down from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Rice +295, East Carolina -380) prices Rice at 24% and East Carolina at 76%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28
East Carolina Pirates won by 16.
- Against the closing spread (East Carolina Pirates -10): East Carolina Pirates covered.
- Combined score 40 vs the closing total of 46.5: Under.
- East Carolina Pirates closed at -380 on the moneyline (a 76% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Rice Owls 24%, East Carolina Pirates 76%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 14:16 — Rice Owls ball, 2nd & 5 at RICE 30Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 44 yards gain to the ECU26 (#3 Z.Gamble; #4 K.Merrell), 1ST DOWNRice Owls 21% → 28% (+8 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 12:47 — Rice Owls ball, 2nd & 7 at ECU 23Tyvonn Byars 23 Yd Run (Tommy Bauchiero PAT blocked)Rice Owls 28% → 35% (+7 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 10:22 — East Carolina Pirates ball, 2nd & 14 at RICE 48No Huddle-Shotgun #9 E.Williams pass complete short left to #24 J.Dickerson caught at RICE43, for 14 yards to the RICE34 (#3 K.Akui), 1ST DOWNEast Carolina Pirates 66% → 72% (+6 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 6:12 — East Carolina Pirates ball, 4th & 1 at RICE 15No Huddle #4 T.Engleman Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the RICE11 (#7 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNEast Carolina Pirates 70% → 76% (+6 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 4:37 — East Carolina Pirates ball, 3rd & 5 at RICE 6No Huddle #9 E.Williams pass complete short middle to #1 R.Joseph Jr. caught at RICE10, for 6 yards to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37, 1ST DOWN #43 N.Perez ki…East Carolina Pirates 73% → 81% (+8 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Rice | Points added | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| -8.3 | Passingdropbacks | -15.5 |
| -8.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.5 |
| +7.3 | Explosive plays3 plays · 4 plays | +12.3 |
| -7.2 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.0 |
| -1.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.4 |
| -2.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 2 of 4 | +1.6 |
| -19.1 | All plays | -3.6 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 7.2 points to East Carolina Pirates. The final margin was 16.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
East Carolina Pirates closed as the market favourite at 76% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Rice +7.5 (-105)
Rice +10 (-110)
East Carolina -382 76%
East Carolina -380 76%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts66
- Completion %53.0%237th
- Passing yards403254th
- Yards per attempt6.1214th
- TD–INT2–1
- Rushing yards49516th
- Season line88 carries, 495 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards102508th
- Season line7 catches, 102 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3587th
- Attempts67
- Completion %53.7%233rd
- Passing yards425250th
- Yards per attempt6.3200th
- TD–INT3–2
- Rushing yards250131st
- Season line31 carries, 250 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards199213th
- Season line19 catches, 199 yds
- Tackles29192nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Rice | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateRice offense vs East Carolina defense | 45.8%39th | 40.4%36th |
| Early-down success rateEast Carolina offense vs Rice defense | 42.3%57th | 45.8%36th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRice offense vs East Carolina defense | 23.7%131st | 38.9%60th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateEast Carolina offense vs Rice defense | 47.8%118th | 19.2%137th |
| Explosive play rateRice offense vs East Carolina defense | 5.0%113th | 6.9%76th |
| Explosive play rateEast Carolina offense vs Rice defense | 6.6%67th | 6.0%93rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 29.9%134th-highest | 44.4%109th-highest |
On 3rd down Rice converts 23.7% (131st) against a East Carolina defense allowing 38.9% (60th).
On 3rd down East Carolina converts 19.2% (137th) against a Rice defense allowing 47.8% (118th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Rice | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Scott Abell | Blake Harrell |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 6–12 | 16–7 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 6–12 | 16–7 |
| Offensive coordinator | Vince Munch | Jordan Davis |
| Defensive coordinator | Jon Kay | Jordan Hankins |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Rice won 1 and East Carolina 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2023 | East Carolina 17, Rice 24 Rice won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Rice Owls
- Rice Owls team stats
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane 38, Rice Owls 17 (Oct 17)
- UTSA Roadrunners 16, Rice Owls 14 (Oct 3)
East Carolina Pirates
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25 (Oct 10)
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