James Madison Dukes vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Final — October 22, 2026
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2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
James Madison (6-0) visited App State (3-2) on Thursday, October 22 at 7:00 PM ET.
James Madison has the 25th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 22nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, App State has the 81st-ranked offense and the 84th-ranked defense. When James Madison has the ball, a 25th-ranked offense (+0.210 EPA per play) meets a 84th-ranked defense (+0.112 allowed); when App State has it, a 81st-ranked offense (+0.037) meets a 22nd-ranked defense (−0.065 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the James Madison offense is at 51.1% (26th) and the App State offense at 47.2% (65th). James Madison scores 35.5 points per game (17th) and allows 18.2 (24th); App State scores 24.4 (78th) and allows 25.6 (69th).
James Madison is 7-0 and 6-1 against the spread; its last game was a 49-22 win over Georgia State. App State is 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 35-32 win over Coastal Carolina.
James Madison closed as a 12.5-point road favorite, with App State getting the points at home. The spread opened at James Madison -10.5. The total closed at 56.5, down from 58.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (James Madison -492, App State +372) prices James Madison at 80% and App State at 20%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
James Madison Dukes 31, Appalachian State Mountaineers 34
Appalachian State Mountaineers won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Appalachian State Mountaineers +12.5): Appalachian State Mountaineers covered.
- Combined score 65 vs the closing total of 56.5: Over.
- Appalachian State Mountaineers closed at +372 on the moneyline (a 20% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward James Madison Dukes.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (James Madison Dukes 80%, Appalachian State Mountaineers 20%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 13:15 — Appalachian State Mountaineers ball, 3rd & 5 at JMU 5Chris Lofton 5 Yd pass from Henry Hasselbeck (Malachi Singleton Pass to Sam Pickett III for Two-Point Conversion)Appalachian State Mountaineers 17% → 30% (+13 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 6:03 — James Madison Dukes ball, 1st & 10 at JMU 25Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass intercepted by #10 C.Phares at JMU35 #10 C.Phares return 21 yards to the JMU14 (#6 G.Pettaway; #53 D.Michel), out of boundsAppalachian State Mountaineers 32% → 66% (+34 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:03 — James Madison Dukes ball, 1st & 6 at APP 6Shotgun #7 C.Coleman rush middle for 6 yards gain to the APP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:03 #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel)James Madison Dukes 16% → 54% (+39 pts) · Drive 29 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Appalachian State Mountaineers ball, 3rd & 7 at JMU 25Shotgun #8 H.Hasselbeck rush left for 5 yards gain to the JMU20 (#15 J.Hooten)Appalachian State Mountaineers 41% → 100% (+59 pts) · Drive 32 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — James Madison Dukes ball, 1st & 10 at APP 25Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush right for 11 yards loss to the APP36 (#1 J.McBurrows)Appalachian State Mountaineers 43% → 61% (+19 pts) · Drive 31 in Drive X-Ray
Appalachian State Mountaineers won after falling as low as 7% (Q2 4:48).
Game DNA
| James Madison | Points added | App State |
|---|---|---|
| +0.6 | Passingdropbacks | -3.3 |
| -4.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.2 |
| +11.3 | Explosive plays3 plays · 4 plays | -0.8 |
| -3.1 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +6.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +9.6 |
| -2.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -8.4 |
| +9.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 3 of 6 | +6.2 |
| +16.7 | All plays | +0.1 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 12.1 points to James Madison Dukes. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
James Madison Dukes closed as the market favourite at 80% and lost.
The line moved toward James Madison Dukes before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
James Madison -10.5 (-107)
James Madison -12.5 (-112)
App State +317 23%
App State +372 20%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts174
- Completion %63.2%101st
- Passing yards1,336106th
- Yards per attempt7.7100th
- TD–INT13–1
- Rushing yards7678th
- Season line109 carries, 767 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards333132nd
- Season line22 catches, 333 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles5070th
- Attempts169
- Completion %66.9%49th
- Passing yards1,42986th
- Yards per attempt8.554th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards346122nd
- Season line70 carries, 346 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards41173rd
- Season line26 catches, 411 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles38224th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | James Madison | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateJames Madison offense vs App State defense | 47.6%19th | 43.8%81st |
| Early-down success rateApp State offense vs James Madison defense | 40.3%29th | 43.2%69th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJames Madison offense vs App State defense | 43.0%47th | 38.0%51st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateApp State offense vs James Madison defense | 40.7%70th | 39.4%82nd |
| Explosive play rateJames Madison offense vs App State defense | 7.5%44th | 4.9%16th |
| Explosive play rateApp State offense vs James Madison defense | 6.3%49th | 6.8%64th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 44.5%111th-highest | 50.6%74th-highest |
On 3rd down James Madison converts 43.0% (47th) against a App State defense allowing 38.0% (51st).
On 3rd down App State converts 39.4% (82nd) against a James Madison defense allowing 40.7% (70th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | James Madison | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Billy Napier | Dowell Loggains |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 7–0 | 9–10 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 69–35 | 9–10 |
| Offensive coordinator | Cam Aiken | Mike Anthony |
| Defensive coordinator | Robert Bala / Josh Linam | D. J. Smith |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: James Madison won 2 and App State 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | App State 10, James Madison 58 James Madison won | ||
| Nov 23, 2024 | James Madison 20, App State 34 App State won | ||
| Nov 18, 2023 | App State 26, James Madison 23 App State won | ||
| Sep 24, 2022 | James Madison 32, App State 28 James Madison won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
James Madison Dukes
- James Madison Dukes team stats
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- Marshall Thundering Herd 17, James Madison Dukes 45 (Oct 3)
Appalachian State Mountaineers
More NCAAF games on October 22, 2026
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