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NCAAF · October 15, 2026

East Carolina Pirates vs UAB Blazers Final — October 15, 2026

East Carolina Pirates

2-2

Quarterback Emory Williams

FINAL

UAB Blazers

2-3

Quarterback Ryder Burton

Thursday, October 15 · 7:30 PM ET

ECUOffense2026 regular season to dateUAB

114th−0.071

EPA/play

−0.103120th

105th43.1%

Success %

43.7%98th

101st20.5

PPG

20.0103rd

ECUDefenseUAB

23rd−0.071

EPA/play allowed

+0.02654th

22nd42.5%

Success % allowed

47.0%76th

71st26.0

Opp PPG

28.284th

ECURecent formUAB

L@ Alabama 10-48Lvs App State 24-27W@ Old Dominion 20-17Wvs North Carolina Central 42-9Wvs Rice 28-12

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs UL Monroe 26-20L@ Louisiana 14-21Wvs Navy 24-20Wvs Samford 33-14L@ Memphis 13-38

3-2

Record

3-3

2-3

ATS

2-4

1-4

Over–under

1-5

ECUHome and roadseason to dateUAB

2-1

Home record

3-0

1-1

Road record

0-3

1-2

Home ATS

1-2

1-1

Road ATS

1-2

0-3

Home O/U

0-3

1-1

Road O/U

1-2

ECULast 10 gamesUAB

Game by game

3-2

Last 5

—

+11

Net points

-22

—

Last 6

3-3

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

ECURest & travelUAB

5 days

Days of rest

5 days

556 mi894 km

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Protective Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

The pre-game matchup

East Carolina (2-2) visited UAB (2-3) on Thursday, October 15 at 7:30 PM ET.

East Carolina has the 114th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 23rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UAB has the 120th-ranked offense and the 54th-ranked defense. When East Carolina has the ball, a 114th-ranked offense (−0.071 EPA per play) meets a 54th-ranked defense (+0.026 allowed); when UAB has it, a 120th-ranked offense (−0.103) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (−0.071 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the East Carolina offense is at 43.1% (105th) and the UAB offense at 43.7% (98th). East Carolina scores 20.5 points per game (101st) and allows 26.0 (71st); UAB scores 20.0 (103rd) and allows 28.2 (84th).

East Carolina is 3-2 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 28-12 win over Rice. UAB is 3-3 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 38-13 loss to Memphis.

East Carolina closed as a 4.5-point road favorite, with UAB getting the points at home. The spread opened at East Carolina -6.5. The total closed at 48.5, down from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (East Carolina -210, UAB +175) prices East Carolina at 65% and UAB at 35%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

East Carolina Pirates 17, UAB Blazers 30

UAB Blazers won by 13.

Against the closing spread (UAB Blazers +4.5): UAB Blazers covered.
Combined score 47 vs the closing total of 48.5: Under.
UAB Blazers closed at +175 on the moneyline (a 35% no-vig market-implied chance).

Before the game: market and G&W

65%Market at the close35%

East Carolina PiratesUAB Blazers

67%Market at the open33%

From open to close the market moved 2 points toward UAB Blazers.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (East Carolina Pirates 65%, UAB Blazers 35%) and moving with every snap until the final.

Biggest swings

Q4 0:35 — UAB Blazers ball, 2nd & 10 at ECU 17Bam McReynolds 17 Yd pass from Bam McReynolds (Ryder Burton Run for Two-Point Conversion)UAB Blazers 8% → 47% (+39 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
OT — UAB Blazers ball, 3rd & 6 at ECU 25Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass incomplete short middle to #1 C.Smith thrown to ECU25 broken up by #5 K.DavisUAB Blazers 50% → 86% (+36 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
OT — East Carolina Pirates ball, 3rd & 5 at UAB 25PENALTY UAB UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#2 R.Robinson II) ECU Personal Foul (#9 K.DuJour) 28 yards from UAB25 to UAB27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYUAB Blazers 75% → 100% (+25 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
OT — UAB Blazers ball, 3rd & 10 at ECU 25Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass incomplete short middle to #1 C.Smith thrown to ECU25 broken up by #5 K.DavisUAB Blazers 42% → 58% (+16 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
OT — East Carolina Pirates ball, 2nd & 4 at UAB 25PENALTY UAB UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#2 R.Robinson II) ECU Personal Foul (#9 K.DuJour) 28 yards from UAB25 to UAB27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYUAB Blazers 66% → 75% (+9 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray

UAB Blazers won after falling as low as 2% (Q4 1:55).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Game DNA

East Carolina	Points added	UAB
-5.3	Passingdropbacks	-8.4
-3.3	Rushingdesigned runs	-3.7
+0.0	Explosive plays0 plays · 5 plays	+11.8
-2.6	Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways	+0.0
-0.6	Special teamskicks, punts and returns	+1.4
-1.6	Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball	-5.3
+6.1	Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 2 of 4	-0.4
-7.4	All plays	-4.6

Bar left: East Carolina gainedBar right: UAB gained

The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 11.8 points to UAB Blazers. The final margin was 13.

Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playUAB Blazers +5 -1100.50uWIN +0.50u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

East Carolina Pirates closed as the market favourite at 65% and lost.

The line moved toward UAB Blazers before kickoff, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Drive X-Ray

Every possession of this game, drive by drive. Hover or tap a drive for the plays.

Every other game: Drive X-Ray.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 2

OpenUAB +6.5 (-110)
East Carolina -6.5 (-110)

CloseUAB +4.5 (-110)
East Carolina -4.5 (-111)

Totaldown 5

Open53.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Close48.5 (o -113 / u -108)

Moneyline

OpenEast Carolina -230 67%
UAB +189 33%

CloseEast Carolina -210 65%
UAB +175 35%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

East Carolina

QB · Emory Williams

Attempts77
Completion %64.9%80th
Passing yards529248th
Yards per attempt6.9168th
TD–INT5–1

Leading rusher (RB) · TJ Engleman Jr.

Rushing yards38667th
Season line45 carries, 386 yds, 3 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Ray Ray Joseph Jr.

Receiving yards267159th
Season line25 catches, 267 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · DJ Johnson Jr.

Tackles37148th

UAB

QB · Ryder Burton

Attempts130
Completion %55.4%210th
Passing yards922169th
Yards per attempt7.1145th
TD–INT4–5

Leading rusher (RB) · Rod Robinson II

Rushing yards40358th
Season line93 carries, 403 yds

Leading receiver (WR) · Ty Mims

Receiving yards302122nd
Season line17 catches, 302 yds, 1 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Muaaz Byard

Tackles5413th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	East Carolina	UAB
Early-down success rateEast Carolina offense vs UAB defense	42.8%76th	44.2%83rd
Early-down success rateUAB offense vs East Carolina defense	38.5%18th	43.0%73rd
3rd-down conversion rateEast Carolina offense vs UAB defense	23.8%133rd	44.1%99th
3rd-down conversion rateUAB offense vs East Carolina defense	33.3%21st	45.6%36th
Explosive play rateEast Carolina offense vs UAB defense	6.2%86th	3.6%4th
Explosive play rateUAB offense vs East Carolina defense	6.4%58th	4.9%115th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	45.8%101st-highest	40.5%126th-highest

On 3rd down East Carolina converts 23.8% (133rd) against a UAB defense allowing 44.1% (99th).

On 3rd down UAB converts 45.6% (36th) against a East Carolina defense allowing 33.3% (21st).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	East Carolina	UAB
Head coach	Blake Harrell	Alex Mortensen
Tenureat this school	3rd season	2nd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	17–7	5–7
Career recordas an FBS head coach	17–7	5–7
Offensive coordinator	Jordan Davis	Alex Mortensen
Defensive coordinator	Jordan Hankins	Todd Grantham

Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Teams