Home › Game previews › NHL › October 2026 › Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL · October 21, 2026

Philadelphia Flyers vs Buffalo Sabres Final — October 21, 2026

Philadelphia Flyers

2-6-3

Goalie Dan Vladar Confirmed

FINAL

Buffalo Sabres

4-3-2

Goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen Confirmed

Wednesday, October 21 · 7:40 PM ET

PHIStarting goaliesBUF

This season

Starts

.889

Sv%

.860

.870

HDSv%

.767

−0.8

GSAx

−4.9

Last season

Starts

.906

Sv%

.910

.831

HDSv%

.838

+10.3

GSAx

+10.0

PHIOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)BUF

20th3.05

GF/G

3.515th

32nd5.57

PP GF/60

6.9320th

PHIDefenseBUF

9th2.96

GA/G

2.947th

23rd8.31

PK GA/60

6.174th

PHITeamBUF

10th59.8%

Pts%

66.5%4th

11th51.0%

xGF%

50.5%14th

26th47.7%

CF%

49.3%16th

9th53.7%

HDCF%

51.7%13th

PHI5-on-5BUF

23rd2.36

xGF/60

2.6111th

4th2.27

xGA/60

2.5520th

10th10.2%

Sh%

10.6%5th

15th90.5%

Sv%

91.4%8th

31st107.5

CF/60 (both)

116.015th

23rd−0.15

GAx/G

+0.244th

23rd−0.10

GSAx/G

+0.256th

14th10.6%

Sh%

11.2%7th

23rd89.1%

Sv%

90.7%3rd

8th53.5%

xGF% (L20)

53.4%9th

PHISpecial teamsBUF

6th8.32

PP xG/60

7.0826th

14th78.4

PP FF/60

76.420th

13th4.8

PP min/G

5.07th

7th7.03

PK xGA/60

7.5416th

21st4.9

PK min/G

4.614th

PHIRecent formBUF

Lvs CAR 1-4OTLvs SEA 2-3L@ DET 1-2Wvs OTT 3-1Wvs COL 3-2

Resultsoldest to newest

Lvs UTA 1-4Wvs FLA 5-3OTL@ MTL 3-4W@ TOR 5-4OTL@ MTL 3-4

Game by game

2-6-3

Record

4-3-2

2-2-1

Last 5

2-1-2

2-5-3

Last 10

—

2-9

Over–under

—

PHIHome and roadseason to dateBUF

2-2-2

Home record

3-2-0

0-4-1

Road record

1-1-2

1-5

Home O/U

—

1-4

Road O/U

—

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

PHIRest & travelBUF

2 days

Days of rest

4 days

281 mi453 km

Travel to the game

Home

PHIKey injuriesBUF

Cam York DIRTravis Konecny RWIROwen Tippett RWIRTyson Foerster RWDay-to-day

Players out or limited

Conor Timmins DIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 21, 12:49 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Flyers (2-6-3) visited the Sabres (4-3-2) on Wednesday, October 21 at 7:40 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Flyers scored 3.05 goals per game (20th of 32) and allowed 2.96 (9th). The Sabres scored 3.51 goals per game (5th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Flyers earned 59.8% of available standings points (10th) and the Sabres 66.5% (4th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Flyers 51.0% (11th), Sabres 50.5% (14th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Flyers 47.7% (26th), Sabres 49.3% (16th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Flyers 53.7% (9th), Sabres 51.7% (13th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed at 6.5, up from 5.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Flyers +170, Sabres -205) prices the Flyers at 36% and the Sabres at 64%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 1

Philadelphia Flyers won by 2.

Against the closing spread (Buffalo Sabres -1.5): Philadelphia Flyers covered.
Combined score 4 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
Philadelphia Flyers closed at +170 on the moneyline (a 36% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Philadelphia Flyers 3
Buffalo Sabres 1

Decided

In regulation

Philadelphia Flyers won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

36%Market at the close64%

Philadelphia FlyersBuffalo Sabres

37%Market at the open63%

From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Buffalo Sabres.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Philadelphia Flyers 36%, Buffalo Sabres 64%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 19:17 — Philadelphia Flyers goal (2-0)Philadelphia Flyers 57% → 74% (+17 pts)
2nd 19:25 — Buffalo Sabres goal (2-1)Buffalo Sabres 15% → 35% (+21 pts)
3rd 3:03 — Philadelphia Flyers goal (3-1)Philadelphia Flyers 70% → 88% (+18 pts)

Philadelphia Flyers won after falling as low as 33% (1st 1:56).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

61%PHI

Share of G&W replays won

39%BUF

3.8

Expected goals

2.9

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Philadelphia Flyers won 61% of G&W replays (Buffalo Sabres 39%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Philadelphia Flyers. Here is where that came from.

Flyers	Goals	Sabres
2.2	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.9
1.6	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.8
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.2
3.8	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.9
0.0	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.8
0.8	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.6
-0.8	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-2.7
+2.7	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Dan Vladar 27/28 · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 23/26	+0.8

Bar left: Flyers gainedBar right: Sabres gained

How the margin was built, from Philadelphia Flyers's side:

Chances +0.1Finishing & goaltending +1.9Philadelphia Flyers by 2

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Jessica's HandicapPhiladelphia Flyers ML +1861.00uWIN +1.86u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Buffalo Sabres closed as the market favourite at 64% and lost.

The line moved toward Buffalo Sabres before puck drop, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenSabres -1.5 (+130)
Flyers +1.5 (-157)

CloseSabres -1.5 (+125)
Flyers +1.5 (-153)

Totalup 1

Open5.5 (o -132 / u +110)

Close6.5 (o +114 / u -135)

Moneyline

OpenFlyers +158 37%
Sabres -190 63%

CloseFlyers +170 36%
Sabres -205 64%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 28 times since 2018-19: the Flyers won 15 and the Sabres 13.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Jan 14, 2026	Flyers 2, Sabres 5 Sabres won	Sabres -135 favorite won	6.5 over
Dec 18, 2025	Flyers 3, Sabres 5 Sabres won	Sabres -150 favorite won	6 over
Dec 3, 2025	Sabres 2, Flyers 5 Flyers won	Sabres -130 underdog won	6.5 over
Apr 17, 2025	Flyers 4, Sabres 5 Sabres won	Sabres -170 favorite won	6.5 over
Mar 29, 2025	Sabres 4, Flyers 7 Flyers won	Flyers -125 favorite won	6 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams