Buffalo Sabres vs Washington Capitals Final — October 24, 2026
BUFStarting goaliesWSH
BUFOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)WSHBUFDefenseWSHBUFTeamWSHBUF5-on-5WSHBUFSpecial teamsWSHBUFRecent formWSHBUFHome and roadseason to dateWSHInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
BUFRest & travelWSHBUFKey injuriesWSHAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 24, 10:10 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Sabres (4-4-2) visited the Capitals (5-4-0) on Saturday, October 24 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Sabres scored 3.51 goals per game (5th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Capitals scored 3.21 goals per game (15th of 32) and allowed 2.98 (10th). The Sabres earned 66.5% of available standings points (4th) and the Capitals 57.9% (12th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Sabres 50.5% (14th), Capitals 50.0% (17th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Sabres 49.3% (16th), Capitals 49.4% (15th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Sabres 51.7% (13th), Capitals 46.9% (22nd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sabres +100, Capitals -120) prices the Sabres at 48% and the Capitals at 52%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Buffalo Sabres 3, Washington Capitals 4
Washington Capitals won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Washington Capitals -1.5): Buffalo Sabres covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Washington Capitals closed at -120 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Washington Capitals 4
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Buffalo Sabres.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Buffalo Sabres 48%, Washington Capitals 52%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 17:24 — Washington Capitals goal (2-3)Washington Capitals 51% → 75% (+24 pts)
- 3rd 2:20 — Buffalo Sabres goal (3-3)Buffalo Sabres 23% → 49% (+26 pts)
- OT 3:42 — Washington Capitals goal (3-4)Washington Capitals 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Washington Capitals won after falling as low as 20% (1st 16:10).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Washington Capitals won 75% of G&W replays (Buffalo Sabres 25%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Washington Capitals. Here is where that came from.
| Sabres | Goals | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.9 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.0 |
| 0.3 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 2.1 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.0 |
| 0.1 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.4 |
| 0.0 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.4 |
| +0.9 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.4 |
| +0.4 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 30/34 · Charlie Lindgren 18/21 | -0.9 |
How the margin was built, from Washington Capitals's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Washington Capitals closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.
The line moved toward Buffalo Sabres before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sabres +1.5 (-222)
Sabres +1.5 (-242)
Capitals -141 56%
Capitals -120 52%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 28 times since 2018-19: the Sabres won 11 and the Capitals 17.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Sabres 2, Capitals 6 Capitals won | ||
| Mar 12, 2026 | Capitals 2, Sabres 1 Capitals won | Sabres -220 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Capitals 3, Sabres 4 SO Sabres won | Sabres -130 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Sabres 8, Capitals 5 Sabres won | Capitals -360 underdog won | 6 over |
| Jan 6, 2025 | Capitals 3, Sabres 4 SO Sabres won | Capitals -150 underdog won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Buffalo Sabres
- Buffalo Sabres team stats
- Buffalo Sabres 2, San Jose Sharks 0 (Oct 27)
- Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 21)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Oct 17)
Washington Capitals
More NHL games on October 24, 2026
- Anaheim Ducks 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (Oct 24)
- Los Angeles Kings 1, New Jersey Devils 3 (Oct 24)
- New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 7 (Oct 24)
- San Jose Sharks 4, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 24)
- Vegas Golden Knights 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (Oct 24)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 24)
- Nashville Predators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (Oct 24)
- Carolina Hurricanes 4, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 24)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 24)
- Detroit Red Wings 1, Calgary Flames 4 (Oct 24)
- Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 1 (Oct 24)
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