Home › Game previews › NHL › October 2026 › Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators

NHL · October 21, 2026

Florida Panthers vs Ottawa Senators Final — October 21, 2026

Florida Panthers

5-2-2

Goalie Akira Schmid Confirmed

FINAL

Ottawa Senators

6-3-0

Goalie Linus Ullmark Confirmed

Wednesday, October 21 · 7:40 PM ET

FLAStarting goaliesOTT

This season

Starts

.876

Sv%

.945

.833

HDSv%

.950

−1.4

GSAx

+8.1

Last season

Starts

.893

Sv%

.891

.798

HDSv%

.796

−5.1

GSAx

−12.1

FLAOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)OTT

18th3.06

GF/G

3.399th

18th7.11

PP GF/60

8.637th

FLADefenseOTT

28th3.37

GA/G

3.0011th

10th7.07

PK GA/60

8.6728th

FLATeamOTT

25th51.2%

Pts%

60.4%9th

16th50.2%

xGF%

54.8%3rd

9th51.7%

CF%

52.9%5th

20th48.3%

HDCF%

56.0%4th

FLA5-on-5OTT

15th2.56

xGF/60

2.6012th

17th2.54

xGA/60

2.141st

15th9.6%

Sh%

10.0%12th

28th89.3%

Sv%

89.3%27th

20th114.6

CF/60 (both)

110.628th

27th−0.21

GAx/G

+0.148th

28th−0.26

GSAx/G

−0.4432nd

19th10.2%

Sh%

10.9%11th

27th88.5%

Sv%

88.2%31st

27th46.3%

xGF% (L20)

53.7%7th

FLASpecial teamsOTT

8th8.22

PP xG/60

7.3617th

5th83.7

PP FF/60

77.816th

3rd5.3

PP min/G

5.32nd

5th6.54

PK xGA/60

6.462nd

31st5.4

PK min/G

4.717th

FLARecent formOTT

Lvs MIN 1-4L@ BUF 3-5W@ CBJ 7-3Wvs VAN 3-2Wvs SEA 8-3

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs NSH 3-2W@ NJD 4-1Lvs STL 2-7Wvs NYI 2-1L@ PHI 1-3

Game by game

5-2-2

Record

6-3-0

3-2-0

Last 5

3-2-0

4-5

Over–under

2-7

FLAHome and roadseason to dateOTT

2-1-0

Home record

3-1-0

3-1-2

Road record

3-2-0

1-2

Home O/U

1-3

3-3

Road O/U

1-4

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

FLARest & travelOTT

4 days

Days of rest

4 days

1,345 mi2,164 km

Travel to the game

Home

FLAKey injuriesOTT

Jacob Markstrom GIRAleksander Barkov CIR

Players out or limited

Thomas Chabot DOut

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 21, 6:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Panthers (5-2-2) visited the Senators (6-3-0) on Wednesday, October 21 at 7:40 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Panthers scored 3.06 goals per game (18th of 32) and allowed 3.37 (28th). The Senators scored 3.39 goals per game (9th of 32) and allowed 3.00 (11th). The Panthers earned 51.2% of available standings points (25th) and the Senators 60.4% (9th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Panthers 50.2% (16th), Senators 54.8% (3rd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Panthers 51.7% (9th), Senators 52.9% (5th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Panthers 48.3% (20th), Senators 56.0% (4th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Panthers -108, Senators -111) prices the Panthers at 50% and the Senators at 50%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Florida Panthers 1, Ottawa Senators 5

Ottawa Senators won by 4.

Against the closing spread (Ottawa Senators -1.5): Ottawa Senators covered.
Combined score 6 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
Ottawa Senators closed at -111 on the moneyline (a 50% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Florida Panthers 1
Ottawa Senators 5

Decided

In regulation

Ottawa Senators won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

50%Market at the close50%

Florida PanthersOttawa Senators

49%Market at the open51%

From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Florida Panthers.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Florida Panthers 50%, Ottawa Senators 50%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 14:13 — Ottawa Senators goal (1-1)Ottawa Senators 34% → 52% (+17 pts)
2nd 9:34 — Ottawa Senators goal (1-2)Ottawa Senators 50% → 71% (+21 pts)
2nd 17:18 — Ottawa Senators goal (1-3)Ottawa Senators 74% → 89% (+15 pts)

Ottawa Senators won after falling as low as 29% (1st 10:05).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

43%FLA

Share of G&W replays won

57%OTT

2.1

Expected goals

2.5

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Ottawa Senators won 57% of G&W replays (Florida Panthers 43%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Panthers	Goals	Senators
1.0	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.3
0.6	Power-play chancesexpected goals	1.2
0.5	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
2.1	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.5
0.4	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.4
-1.1	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+2.5
-2.5	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Akira Schmid 25/30 · Linus Ullmark 17/18, Samuel Ersson 1/1	+1.1

Bar left: Panthers gainedBar right: Senators gained

How the margin was built, from Ottawa Senators's side:

Chances +0.4Finishing & goaltending +3.6Ottawa Senators by 4

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Ottawa Senators closed as the market favourite at 50% and won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenSenators -1.5 (+202)
Panthers +1.5 (-252)

CloseSenators -1.5 (+220)
Panthers +1.5 (-285)

Totalno move

Open5.5 (o -125 / u +105)

Close5.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Moneyline

OpenPanthers -105 49%
Senators -115 51%

ClosePanthers -108 50%
Senators -111 50%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 24 times since 2018-19: the Panthers won 18 and the Senators 6.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Apr 9, 2026	Panthers 1, Senators 5 Senators won
Mar 31, 2026	Senators 3, Panthers 6 Panthers won
Jan 10, 2026	Panthers 3, Senators 2 Panthers won	Senators -125 underdog won	6 under
Oct 11, 2025	Senators 2, Panthers 6 Panthers won	Panthers -155 favorite won	5.5 over
Apr 5, 2025	Panthers 0, Senators 3 Senators won	Panthers -143 underdog won	5.5 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams