Buffalo Sabres vs Montréal Canadiens Final — October 17, 2026
BUFStarting goaliesMTL
BUFOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)MTLBUFDefenseMTLBUFTeamMTLBUF5-on-5MTLBUFSpecial teamsMTLBUFRecent formMTLBUFHome and roadseason to dateMTLInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
BUFRest & travelMTLBUFKey injuriesMTLAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 17, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Sabres (4-3-1) visited the Canadiens (3-3-1) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Sabres scored 3.51 goals per game (5th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Canadiens scored 3.45 goals per game (6th of 32) and allowed 3.12 (18th). The Sabres earned 66.5% of available standings points (4th) and the Canadiens 64.6% (5th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Sabres 50.5% (14th), Canadiens 48.8% (20th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Sabres 49.3% (16th), Canadiens 48.6% (23rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Sabres 51.7% (13th), Canadiens 46.4% (24th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sabres +120, Canadiens -142) prices the Sabres at 44% and the Canadiens at 56%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Montréal Canadiens won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Montréal Canadiens -1.5): Buffalo Sabres covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Montréal Canadiens closed at -142 on the moneyline (a 56% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Montréal Canadiens 4
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Montréal Canadiens.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Buffalo Sabres 44%, Montréal Canadiens 56%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 10:12 — Buffalo Sabres goal (3-3)Buffalo Sabres 16% → 47% (+32 pts)
- 3rd 17:43 — Montréal Canadiens penaltyBuffalo Sabres 48% → 66% (+18 pts)
- OT 0:54 — Montréal Canadiens goal (3-4)Montréal Canadiens 52% → 100% (+48 pts)
Montréal Canadiens won after falling as low as 34% (3rd 17:43).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Montréal Canadiens won 67% of G&W replays (Buffalo Sabres 33%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Montréal Canadiens. Here is where that came from.
| Sabres | Goals | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.6 |
| 0.6 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.2 |
| 0.3 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.3 |
| 2.8 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.1 |
| 0.2 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.3 |
| 0.7 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| +0.1 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.4 |
| +0.4 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 30/34 · Jacob Fowler 23/26 | -0.1 |
How the margin was built, from Montréal Canadiens's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Montréal Canadiens closed as the market favourite at 56% and won.
The line moved toward Montréal Canadiens before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sabres +1.5 (-219)
Sabres +1.5 (-205)
Canadiens -132 55%
Canadiens -142 56%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 26 times since 2018-19: the Sabres won 12 and the Canadiens 14.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Sabres 3, Canadiens 4 SO Canadiens won | Canadiens -155 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Canadiens 4, Sabres 2 Canadiens won | Sabres -130 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Sabres 4, Canadiens 2 Sabres won | Canadiens -120 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Canadiens 3, Sabres 5 Sabres won | Canadiens -125 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Sabres 2, Canadiens 4 Canadiens won | Canadiens -150 favorite won | 6 push |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Buffalo Sabres
- Buffalo Sabres team stats
- Buffalo Sabres 2, San Jose Sharks 0 (Oct 27)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Washington Capitals 4 (Oct 24)
- Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 21)
Montréal Canadiens
More NHL games on October 17, 2026
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